20 Fantasy Thoughts: Stamkos’s value continues to plummet since leaving Lightning

Prior to the start of the season, most people likely had Steven Stamkos pencilled in on Team Canada’s roster for the Four Nations Face-Off. Now it feels like he’s a long shot at best to crack the squad.

It’s been a nightmare campaign thus far for the Nashville Predators, who have just four wins in their past 17 games and sit near the bottom of the league standings. As for Stamkos, even with points in back-to-back games, he’s still on pace for just 43 points. That’s only around half the total he had last season with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

I warned that this could be a possibility back in the summer when Stamkos chose his next destination, though I didn’t necessarily think the decline would be so sharp. Stamkos benefited greatly in 2023-24 from an elite power play that was the best in the NHL, recording 39 of his 81 points with the man advantage. Nikita Kucherov’s ability to create offense with his incredible passing really benefited Stamkos and the Predators don’t have anyone that’s even close to Kucherov’s level.

At even strength, Stamkos has lacked a real quality centre with the Predators. It’s been a revolving door with Tommy Novak and Colton Sissons getting the most looks, which is a massive drop-off from what he had in Tampa. Nashville added a handful of impact players this off-season that included Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei, but they really didn’t address their most important need down the middle.

If Nashville hopes to salvage its season and to get more out of Stamkos, the best path to doing so is adding a quality centre. The Predators do have three first-round draft picks in 2025, so they definitely have the assets to make a move if they want.

Even if Stamkos picks it up as the season goes on, it’s hard to envision a best-case scenario that even gets him close to 65-70 points, which would still be a substantial fall from the point-per-game standards he established with the Lightning. Add in the fact that he’ll be 35 in February and it’s very possible that Stamkos’ days of being truly fantasy-relevant are behind him.  

1. We had a good old-fashioned goalie trade Saturday, with Justus Annunen heading to Nashville and Scott Wedgewood going back the other way. There are a couple of things to take away from this deal. First, Annunen’s value goes way down with Juuse Saros as the unquestioned starter for the Predators. There was at least a chance Annunen could have been a great Zero-G pickup had he wrestled the job away from Alexandar Georgiev, but now he’s a true backup on a worse team.

Second, this confirms the Avs really didn’t have any confidence in Annunen going forward and they are committed to Georgiev. Wedgewood should pose less of a threat than Annunen to Georgiev for starts,

2. I’m amazed Brent Burns is still almost 60 per cent rostered. He’s no longer on power-play one and has just one goal on the season, with minimal hit and block volume. He’s definitely being held because of past production, but Burns is nearly 40 and almost certainly won’t recapture the fantasy value he once had.

3. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Columbus Blue Jackets are incredibly fun to watch. They’ve scored at least five goals eight different times this year and sit in the top 10 for goals scored in the NHL. Keep an eye on the Blue Jackets if you need a forward for a one-game stream. Columbus can score.

4. It didn’t take long for Jim Montgomery to find a new gig, landing with St. Louis Blues just days after he was let go by the Boston Bruins. I don’t think this move has a huge fantasy impact, but I think it probably helps Jordan Binnington the most. Montgomery coaches a really good team defensive structure and the Bruins were a very goalie-friendly squad for his two full seasons in Boston. A shutout for Binnington in his first game under Montgomery was a good start.

5. Vincent Trocheck’s cold streak could thankfully be starting to thaw. Goals in back-to-back games are a welcome sign for those who held on when he had one point in his previous 10. This season has been a disappointment so far for a player who had a career-best 77 points a year ago, as he’s pacing for just 43 in 2024-25. If you’re looking at the glass half full, Trocheck is still playing with Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere when everyone is healthy, as well as skating on the top power-play unit. He’s also continuing to fill the shots, hits and faceoff wins categories. I’d just hang onto him and hope he fully breaks out of it soon, as his trade value is still very low at the moment.

6. On the other side of the spectrum, William Cuylle has become a must-roster. He’s up to nine goals and 20 points on the season, averaging around four hits per game. In multi-cat leagues, anyone who can provide that type of offence to go along with that hit coverage is going to be incredibly valuable.

7. You’re in a good spot if you’ve got Nico Hischier. He’s on pace for 46 goals and shooting almost 19 per cent, so he could be a great sell-high candidate. That said, Hischier is a very solid player and even if his goal pace comes back down to earth, he should still comfortably be a point-per-game player. There’s no reason to move him if you don’t get an awesome offer. Explore the market but hold out for an incredible deal. When you’re operating from a position of strength it’s the best time to investigate what a trade return might be

8. The Linus Ullmark experience in Ottawa isn’t going very well so far. Ullmark had only three quality starts in November, has allowed at least four goals on six separate occasions and owns an .886 save percentage on the season. The Senators invested major money in Ullmark only to deal with the same issues that have plagued them in net over the past few seasons.

Ottawa as a team looks as inconsistent as ever and isn’t really helping matters where Ullmark is concerned, either. At this rate, it’s going to be tough to get wins or good peripheral numbers out of Ullmark. If you’re rostering Ullmark the best-case scenario may be to see if he gets on a mini hot streak eventually and then see what his trade value is at that point. If you can flip him for a more consistent, stable netminder, even if they have less upside, that might be the best path forward.

9. Unless my eyes deceive me, Adam Gaudette is up to 12 goals. He’s holding a spot on the Senators’ top line with Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, so Gaudette is at the very least a good short-term pickup as a streamer. Coming into the year, Gaudette only had 10 goals since 2020-21, so try and take advantage of this run while you can because it probably won’t last.

10. If you’re rostering Brandon Hagel, chances are you won the assists category this week. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward started off the week with five helpers on Monday against the Colorado Avalanche, which included a power play, shorthanded and even strength assist. Not a bad way to start off your week and conversely, a huge hole to dig out of if you were facing Hagel.

11. American Thanksgiving is about the time I feel it’s usually fair to start getting concerned about players. Joel Eriksson Ek, who had only two points in 10 games before picking up four in his past three, is one where the level of concern should be climbing up. Eriksson also hasn’t scored in his past 13 outings. The Minnesota Wild forward is still filling a bunch of other categories, but what made him a great multi-cat option was the fact he scored more than 60 points in back-to-back years.

Eriksson Ek was recently elevated to play with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy and remains on the top power-play unit, so hopefully that gets him going. My theory on Eriksson Ek is that he’s had a couple of injuries that cost him a few games and Minnesota has had multiple quiet two-game weeks, so it’s been tough for him to get into a rhythm. Hopefully, a string of games with that loaded line ignites some offence for Eriksson Ek.

12. One player you don’t have to worry about on the Wild is Filip Gustavsson. The Minnesota netminder is making a case for fantasy comeback player of the year with a .929 save percentage and an 11-4-3 record. Gustavsson looks like he’s back in the Vezina conversation for the second time in three years.

13. Tyler Seguin is on an impressive run right now, notching 17 points in his past 15 games. It could be a good time to sell high on the Dallas Stars forward, as Seguin faded down the stretch last season thanks to injuries. Dallas also sometimes opts to rest him for a game here and there as the season drags on. I have a hard time believing Seguin can keep this pace going.

14. Jakob Chychrun is well on his way to another double-digit goal season. Chychrun has taken Alex Ovechkin’s spot on the top power play and has already found the back of the net eight times in 2024-25. The Washington Capitals defender quietly had 14 goals in Ottawa last season despite competing with Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot for minutes. Defensemen that can reach 10 goals are few and far between and this would be Chychrun’s fourth campaign doing so if he can get there.

15. With Thatcher Demko’s return imminent, it’s going to put a dent in Kevin Lankinen’s value. If you’re rostering Lankinen, don’t panic and just hold onto him. The Vancouver Canucks aren’t going to want to overwork Demko when he’s back and there’s no guarantee he’s going to be able to return to form on a consistent basis. Lankinen has been excellent this season and I think he’ll still get a decent amount of playing time the rest of the way.

16. After not scoring in five straight games, Dylan Guenther has picked it up again. The Utah forward now has three goals and seven points in his past five contests and is up to 21 points in 24 games. Amazingly, he’s still only 65 per cent rostered while scoring at a 34-goal pace. If you’re a rebuilding team and not going to be in contention this year, it’s probably a good idea to target Guenther in a trade because he’s going to be an impact fantasy player for the foreseeable future.

17. While Connor Ingram has been sidelined with an injury, Karel Vejmelka has quietly taken over the crease. Vejmelka had a .925 save percentage in November and has really stabilized the net for Utah after Ingram started off slow. The wins still haven’t been there for Vejmelka but he’s giving you quality starts right now and Ingram is going to be in tough to earn the net back when he’s healthy.

18. Cam Talbot isn’t getting enough credit for what he’s done this season. At 37, Talbot is still very fantasy-relevant with a .916 save percentage and a winning record on a mediocre Detroit Red Wings squad. This is the second year in a row Talbot has started strong out of the gates, as he was an All-Star last season for the Los Angeles Kings. One thing to watch for with Talbot is he may hit a wall again at some point like he did in 2023-24, so make sure you have a contingency plan if the quality starts dry up.

19. Only Anaheim, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay play twice next week, so there are plenty of opportunities to adjust your roster to maximize the schedule. The Ducks have a lot of players with long-term value, but most are tough to hold in one-year leagues. One such player is Leo Carlsson, who could be a drop as he’s dealing with an injury and is on pace for just 45 points. His shot volume is also fairly minimal.

For waiver adds, I’d zero in on Dmitri Voronkov, who plays four times. As mentioned earlier, the Blue Jackets can score and Voronkov has three goals and seven points in his past five games while playing on the top line and first power play unit.

If you’re looking for an outside-the-box pickup, Chris Tanev could be a savvy move as a block specialist. The Toronto Maple Leafs have four games and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Tanev to possibly tally 15-20 blocks over that stretch. He could end up carrying you to a category win in a head-to-head matchup all by himself.

20. There were fears that Casey Mittelstadt’s value would take a hit when the Colorado Avalanche got healthy and those have been realized. Mittelstadt has been held off the scoresheet in nine of his past 10 games, cooling off substantially after a hot start. What’s interesting is despite the Avs getting a bunch of healthy forwards back, Mittelstadt’s circumstances haven’t changed all that much. He’s still getting good minutes and remains on power-play one. Plus, Mikko Rantanen has been shifted to his line as well at times. I’d be patient where Mittelstadt is concerned.