We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
Every year the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie Emmy category feels like one of the most impossible choices. There are more women who should conceivably be nominated than there are nomination slots (for example “Expats” star Nicole Kidman did not make the cut this year.)
When thinking of the stars that are nominated, what comes to mind as the immediate frontrunners are “True Detective: Night Country” star Jodie Foster and “Griselda” star Sofia Vergara. And what is more fascinating is how the two A-listers are approaching their awards campaigns from two different angles. Though two-time Oscar winner Foster has been nominated at the Emmys before, this nod for her work leading the freshly rebooted HBO anthology series is the first time she has been recognized by the TV Academy for her acting. Coming off her Best Supporting Actress nomination for “Nyad,” an Emmy win would cement 2024 as a big comeback year for the former child star.
Whereas the case with Vergara is that she was an Emmy mainstay for a number of years as one of the breakouts from Emmys juggernaut “Modern Family.” However, she never won, and has since had few chances of finding a follow up role to showcase more of her talents. “Griselda” was a labor of love for the Colombia-born star that required her to transform physically, and dig deeper as a dramatic actress. Though “True Detective: Night Country” was the nominations leader for limited series, “Griselda” was incredibly popular with the Netflix audience, so the five-time Emmy-nominated star’s performance is certainly on voters’ radars.
Naomi Watts falls somewhere in the middle. This is the first Emmy nomination for the Australian actress who has two Oscar nominations under her belt. She and Vergara star in the only shows within the category that were not nominated for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, so that possibly does not incentivize voters giving their shows a chance if they have not seen it yet, but her turn Babe Paley in the FX anthology series is similarly seen as a return to form.
As far as the other two nominees, “Lessons in Chemistry” star Brie Larson and “Fargo” star Juno Temple, the perception is just that there is not as much urgency in handing them an Emmy when they will likely be back in the running for another one soon. Larson has actually already won the award before, for a 2020 VR project called “The Messy Truth.” Meanwhile this is Temple’s fourth year in a row being Emmy nominated, after three seasons on Apple TV+ comedy series “Ted Lasso.” What would finally move the needle for her specifically would be a performance that has her stand more on her own, as “Fargo” only adds to the proof that she can be a ringer for any ensemble piece.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
- Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
- Sofia Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)
- Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Juno Temple, “Fargo” (FX)
- Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Will Win: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Could Win: Sofia Vergara, “Griselda”
Should Win: Sofia Vergara, “Griselda”
More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Ali Wong, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: There is no network that is on a hot streak necessarily, as the last few years has seen performances on shows from different places be awarded, but there is a chance that Kate Winslet wins a second Emmy in a row for leading “The Regime,” her first series since “Mare of Easttown.”
Notable Ineligible Series: Anne Hathaway, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Dakota Johnson, “Am I Ok?” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); Eva Longoria, “Land of Women” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)