2024 Heisman Trophy Longshots: 3 Contenders Who Could Surprise in 2024

Entering the 2024 college football season — which kicks off on August 24 — oddsmakers have identified Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’s Quinn Ewers and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel as the “favorites” to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy.

We’re using “favorites” liberally because all three of those players are listed at 8-to-1 or longer at most sportsbooks. Obviously, if you feel great about one of these three, the preseason is a great time to invest, as those prices offer plenty of bang for your buck.

But the lack of a consensus favorite means that after the top three, even the next few favorites are tempting at odds at least as long as 15-to-1.

Nearly two months before anyone has taken a snap, here’s why Nico Iamaleava, Will Howard and Jaxson Dart — in order of longest to shortest current Heisman odds — all have compelling cases.

Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee)

Best odds: +1800 (DraftKings)

Tennessee’s 6-foot-6, 210-pound redshirt freshman arguably has a higher ceiling and a lower floor than any of the Heisman candidates.

So far, we’ve seen no reason to doubt the No. 1 player in the entire 2023 recruiting class. Still, his lack of SEC experience — especially compared to the other players in contention for the Heisman — has the potential to make his first season under center a roller coaster.

At the same time, it’s difficult to imagine a player with more upside. Iamaleava threw just 45 passes last year while backing up Joe Milton, but had an outstanding debut as a true freshman in the Citrus Bowl against an elite Iowa defense. While he only threw for 151 yards on 19 passing attempts in the Vols’ 35-0 win over the Hawkeyes, he also ran for three TDs and looked poised well beyond his years.

Given what Hendon Hooker, who was not exactly a Heisman candidate entering the 2022 season, did in Josh Heupel’s QB-friendly passing game two years ago and Iamaleava’s sky-high upside, the 19-year-old has a real chance to put up monster numbers.

Tennessee takes on two ranked foes — NC State at a neutral site in Charlotte on September 7, then Oklahoma on the road in the first SEC game in the history of Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on September 21 — in the first five weeks of the season.

The Wolfpack finished 2023 at No. 21 after a 9-4 season, while the Sooners were 10-3 and ranked No. 15 in year two under coach Brent Venables. Those two early-season matchups mean college football fans will know by late September whether Iamaleava is ready for the spotlight.

No SEC schedule is easy, but Tennessee has the benefit of hosting Alabama on October 19 at Neyland Stadium. The Vols memorably upset Bryce Young and Co. there in 2022. A late-season trip to Athens on November 16 looks like the biggest test of the season for this team.

With a schedule that features three potential top-10 teams, Iamaleava could feasibly contend for the Heisman, even if the Volunteers finish the regular season with a couple losses, as long he’s able to put up numbers.

Will Howard (Ohio State)

Best odds: +1600 (ESPN BET)

Howard, who will be a fifth-year senior this fall, flew under the radar for an underrated Kansas State program the last few years. He still represents a clear upgrade over last year’s starter, Kyle McCord, though.

Despite a roster full of NFL talent in 2023, the Buckeyes came up short of a berth in the College Football Playoff. While it finished 11-2, against its best opponents — Notre Dame (17 points scored), Penn State (20 points), Michigan (24 points) — the Buckeyes struggled to put up points with McCord at the helm.

Howard’s numbers as the starter in Manhattan, Kansas, were unspectacular, but he threw for 39 TDs and just 14 interceptions in 2022 and 2023, and there’s a reason the Buckeyes chose him as their QB for this season. If nothing else, he offers a high floor as a 22-year-old with over 450 career pass attempts. The 6-foot-5, 240-pounder also offers some rushing ability, especially in the red zone (19 career rushing TDs).

His potential for a massive season has as much to do with his loaded supporting cast as his own talent, though. Ohio State’s offense is (once again) loaded, with two star RBs (TreVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins) and yet another NFL-bound OSU WR, Emeka Egbuka.

Defensively, Ohio State’s D-line alone might boast two high draft picks in DEs Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. The unit as a whole should have another big year after finishing No. 2 in ESPN’s SP+ metric in 2023.

The Buckeyes’ schedule features no shortage of difficult opponents. Road trips to Eugene to take on Oregon on October 12 and a November 2 matchup against Penn State at Beaver Stadium loom as the toughest dates on the calendar.

Ohio State does, however, get Michigan at the ‘Shoe. Between the massive personnel losses the reigning national champs will be dealing with this season and the fact that the Buckeyes have not beaten the Wolverines since 2019, something has to give in Columbus this year, right?

If Howard can play mistake-free and keep his loaded offense on track, he should have both the stats and the wins to have a say in the Heisman race down the stretch.

Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)

Best odds: +1500 (FD, DK, ESPN BET)

It’s easy to see why Ole Miss — DraftKings’ third-favorite in the loaded SEC — will enter the 2024 season with so much hype. This team’s 11-2 finish a year ago, with the only losses coming against Alabama and Georgia — both on the road — included a 38-25 win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl.

With Dart, a 21-year-old senior, back under center after throwing for 3,364 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just five interceptions, coach Lane Kiffin will once again have a high-octane offense.

The question for Dart and the Rebels as they enter a season with championship expectations is whether they can not just hang with — but knock off — the elite teams on their schedule.

The score of Ole Miss’s loss to Georgia last year — 52-17 — tells you all you need to know about how one-sided that game was.

In the 2023 loss to Alabama, the Ole Miss defense held up, but the Crimson Tide smothered Dart and Co. The Rebels gained just 56 yards rushing on 29 carries and Dart was held to less than 250 yards, one interception and no TDs on 20-for-35 passing.

But there’s good reason to believe this team can at least make the SEC Championship game this year, starting with the schedule. The Rebels avoid Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri, and they get both Georgia and Oklahoma at The Vaught. The Sooners visit on October 26, and the Bulldogs come to town on Nov. 9.

Ole Miss’s only truly daunting road date in 2024 appears to be LSU on October 12. Considering just the away games for a moment, it’s hard to overstate how much more difficult the 2023 slate featuring trips to Bama and UGA was than this year’s.

Assuming Ole Miss gets enough regular-season wins to reach the SEC Championship Game and Dart posts numbers that resemble his 2023 stats, he has a great chance to at least get invited to N.Y. as a Heisman finalist.

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