2024 NFL Playoff Scenarios: Which teams can clinch in Week 16?

With just three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, teams have been snatching up playoff spots.

Four AFC teams have already punched their playoff tickets: the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Three more in the NFC have joined the postseason party: the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. 

That leaves just seven bids available. But there’s still more at stake, including five division titles and the No. 1 seed in both conferences. 

Check out this week’s playoff scenarios below!

[Related:2024 NFL Playoff Bracket, Schedule, Standings]

AFC

HOW THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS CAN CLINCH THE NO. 1 SEED

  • Kansas City Chiefs win + Buffalo Bills loss or tie OR
  • Kansas City Chiefs tie + Buffalo Bills loss

The Chiefs have secured the No. 1 seed three times since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback. They can make it four times as soon as this weekend and lock up the all-important first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The version of that scenario without any ties involves Kansas City beating the Texans on Saturday and the Bills losing to the Patriots on Sunday.

Mahomes, who is dealing with a high ankle sprain, says he’s planning to play against Houston, which claimed the AFC South title for the second year in a row last week.

Should Patrick Mahomes play through a high ankle sprain or rest for the team’s benefit | First Things First

Should Patrick Mahomes play through a high ankle sprain or rest for the team's benefit | First Things First

HOW THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS CAN CLINCH THE AFC NORTH

Despite falling to the Eagles in Week 15, the Steelers were still able to grab a playoff bid. This week, they can win their first AFC North title since 2020 if they come out on top in a highly anticipated division showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh won the first matchup in Week 11. Round two will be in Baltimore on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX, with Tom Brady and Kevin Burkhardt in the booth. 

Eagles beat Steelers 27-13, Was Pittsburgh exposed? | Breakfast Ball

Eagles beat Steelers 27-13, Was Pittsburgh exposed? | Breakfast Ball

HOW THE BALTIMORE RAVENS CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF BERTH

  • Baltimore Ravens win or tie OR
  • Miami Dolphins loss or tie + Indianapolis Colts loss or tie

The Ravens won’t earn the No. 1 seed for the second year in a row, but they can make it back to the playoffs. A win or tie on Saturday would accomplish that, though Lamar Jackson is just 1-4 as a starter against the Steelers. If Jackson and the Ravens come up short again, they can still clinch a spot if the Dolphins don’t beat the San Francisco 49ers and the Colts don’t beat the Titans.

HOW THE DENVER BRONCOS CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF BERTH

  • Denver Broncos win or tie OR
  • Miami Dolphins loss or tie + Cincinnati Bengals loss or tie + Indianapolis Colts loss or tie

The Broncos have one of the NFL’s longest active playoff droughts. They haven’t been to the postseason since their Super Bowl-winning season in 2015. That can change on Thursday night with a win over the Chargers. LA came out on top when these two AFC West rivals met in Week 6, but Denver has lost just twice — to the Ravens and Chiefs — since then. 

A loss or tie by the Dolphins, Colts and Bengals could also get the Broncos back in. Cincinnati hosts the Browns, who are switching from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. 

HOW THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF BERTH

  • Los Angeles Chargers win + Miami Dolphins loss or tie + Indianapolis Colts loss or tie OR
  • Los Angeles Chargers tie + Miami Dolphins loss + Indianapolis Colts loss + Cincinnati Bengals loss or tie

The Chargers can complete their impressive turnaround in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as coach with a postseason berth. They need some help to clinch this week, however. Not only do they need to beat the Broncos for a second time, but they also need both the Dolphins and Colts to lose or tie. And, in the unlikely event that Broncos-Chargers ends in a tie, they would also need the Bengals to lose to, or tie with, the Browns.

NFC

HOW THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES CAN CLINCH THE NFC EAST

  • Philadelphia Eagles win or tie

The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat winner since 2004, and that streak will continue if the Eagles take down the Commanders for the second time this season. The Eagles were division champs in 2022, but the Cowboys took home the crown in 2023. 

Philadelphia has won 10 straight games, including a 26-18 victory over the Commanders in Week 11. The rematch will be in Washington on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Did the Philadelphia Eagles silence the critics? | Speak

Did the Philadelphia Eagles silence the critics? | Speak

HOW THE GREEN BAY PACKERS CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF BERTH

  • Green Bay Packers win or tie OR
  • Atlanta Falcons loss or tie + Los Angeles Rams loss or tie OR
  • Atlanta Falcons loss or tie + Seattle Seahawks loss or tie

The Packers are coming off a strong showing in a 30-13 win in Seattle, and another win this week will sew up a postseason bid. They’ll be back home on Monday night, when they’ll host the 5-9 Saints. Green Bay might have already clinched before then, though, if a couple of upsets happen Sunday. 

First, the Packers would need the 2-12 Giants to beat or tie the Falcons. Then, they would need the four-win Jets to defeat, or tie, the surging Rams. If the Rams win, then the Packers could get some help from a rival; the Seahawks falling to or tying the Vikings, coupled with a Falcons loss or tie, would also launch Green Bay back to the playoffs.

Matt Hasselbeck on whether the Green Bay Packers can be trusted in the NFC playoff push | The Herd

Matt Hasselbeck on whether the Green Bay Packers can be trusted in the NFC playoff push | The Herd

HOW THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF BERTH

  • Washington Commanders win + Atlanta Falcons loss or tie + Los Angeles Rams loss or tie OR
  • Washington Commanders win + Atlanta Falcons loss or tie + Seattle Seahawks loss or tie OR
  • Washington Commanders tie + Atlanta Falcons loss + Arizona Cardinals loss or tie + Los Angeles Rams loss or tie + Seattle Seahawks loss or tie*

Dan Quinn can put a bow on his first season as Washington’s head coach with a spot in the playoffs. However, the Commanders face the most complicated path this week. They not only need to end the Eagles’ 10-game winning streak, but they also need the Falcons and Rams or Seahawks to lose/tie.

If the game between the Eagles and Commanders ends in the first tie in the NFL in two years, then a Cardinals loss or tie against the Panthers added to the equation could also put Washington in the postseason. But there’s a caveat to that scenario: the Rams and Seahawks can’t both tie in their respective matchups.

Which teams have already clinched?

AFC

  • Buffalo Bills (11-3)*
  • Houston Texans (9-5)*
  • Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)*
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)

NFC

  • Detroit Lions (12-2)
  • Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)

*division clinched

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