24 big questions for the NBA season: Celtics repeat? Knicks challenge? Wemby’s ceiling?

To ascertain whether you should spend the next 15 minutes reading what falls below, it’s fair to go back and look at how last year’s version of 24 Questions went, along with my answers to them, and very, very fair grades assigned based on whether or not the question/prediction came true. Mind you, those answers were the result of more than three decades of intently following the NBA, establishing deep relationships with decision-makers on teams and in the league office and mining my sources for meaningful and pertinent information from which I could fearlessly express my expert opinions. You’re lucky I do this for you.

For example, the first question I asked last season was:

Can the Nuggets do it again?

Hell yeah, I said.

Hell no, they didn’t.

Grade: C-minus

Is James Harden a 76er by the trade deadline?

I said no on Oct. 20. He was traded to the LA Clippers on Halloween night. Big W for me.

Grade: A-plus

Biggest non-Lillard (!!) impact for a new player: Fred VanVleet in Houston, Bradley Beal in Phoenix or Kristaps Porziņģis in Boston?

I picked FVV. VanVleet was good in Houston last season, but it was Porziņģis by a nautical mile.

Grade: C-minus

Are the rest of the Wolves as nice as Anthony Edwards?

“I’m bullish on a Wolves relaunch,” I wrote. “An over-under of 43.5 wins? Take the over!”

Minnesota made the Western Conference finals for the first time in two decades. Even bigger dub for me.

Grade: A-plus

Can Memphis survive Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension?

I said yes, and that the Grizzlies would be a top-four seed in the West.

The Grizzlies were 21-52 without Morant, who played just nine games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in January. Why do you take anything I say at face value? Why?

Grade: F

Which of Chet Holmgren, Cade Cunningham or LaMelo Ball would have the biggest impact on their team after coming back from injury?

I picked Holmgren. He was in the 93rd percentile last season in estimated defensive plus-minus, per Dunks & Threes. OKC was the top seed in the West and finished fourth in the league in defensive rating.

I am The King.

Grade: A

Since Wemby is going to be Rookie of the Year, who comes in second?

I retorted: Who says he’s going to be Rookie of the Year?

“Are you high?” the omniscient narrator asked.

As it turned out … yes.

I also said that, while Victor Wembanyama might well wind up winning, the ROTY voting would end up being much closer than people thought it would be.

Wembanyama was a unanimous Rookie of the Year selection. I voted for him too.

Grade: F-minus-minus

Ime Udoka, Quin Snyder, Monty Williams, Darko Rajaković: Which new coach of a non-contender will squeeze the most wins above replacement out of his squad?

Naturally, I said Williams. The Pistons went 14-68 and fired Williams after the season, willing to eat the remaining $65 million on his contract. This is your reminder to never allow me to represent you in contract negotiations.

Grade: F

So, on these questions, I had three A’s, three F’s, and a couple of C’s. But grading on a curve — my curve, which involves tossing out the worst grade or two — that works out to, like, a B-minus. And with that unassailable record of excellence, it’s on to 2024!

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1. Can the Celtics repeat?

Hell yeah, they…

Well, let’s first see how quickly Porziņģis recovers from his surgery to repair his torn medial retinaculum. He’s supposed to be back in December, but given that Porziņģis has a history of lower-body injuries, let’s see. Boston can tread water for a few weeks, but if there are any setbacks, milking 38-year-old Al Horford for big minutes for any extended stretch of time is suboptimal. Having said that, the C’s are so experienced, so loaded and have so many different ways they can beat you, with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum having beaten back all the doubters, that they still are prohibitive favorites to get out of the Eastern Conference. But I’d feel better about it if Porziņģis is back to his old self by New Year’s.

2. Can the Knicks beat Boston in the East?

Yes. Even if Porziņģis returns healthy for Boston, Karl-Anthony Towns will provide a rare defensive challenge to Boston’s bigs. I would point to Game 2 of the Timberwolves’ second-round series with the defending champion Nuggets last spring, when Towns got the start in the middle in place of Rudy Gobert, who missed the game in Denver to remain in Minneapolis to be at the birth of his son. Towns went 10-of-15 from the floor against Nikola Jokić, made 3 of 5 3-pointers and scored 27 points in a 106-80 Wolves rout, posting a plus-21 plus-minus. Jokić went for 16 and 16 but was a minus-16. One game isn’t determinative, of course, much less a trend. But it does show that, in a big postseason game for his franchise, Towns could handle the assignment. The question with the Knicks is their depth, but their starting five with Towns in the middle matches up as well as anyone in the league can match up against the Celtics’ starting firepower.

2a. Will they?

See below.

3. How will JJ Redick do?

Pretty well. It is not a criticism of the 40-year-old, first-time coach that he has a particular skill that should resonate with the Lakers: He’s glib. He can get his point across quickly, and pointedly, if needed; with his TV and podcasting background, he can talk in sound bites. He’s smart about basketball. And, given their podcast work together, he obviously has a great relationship with LeBron James. This is obviously vital for any James team.

4. What’s the weather like in Oklahoma City in, say, late May and early June?

Starts to get warm. Bring your slides. You may be there for a few days. Or a couple of weeks. (Is the Skirvin Hotel haunted? Judge for yourself.) Let me put it this way: You should check to see if your favorite watering hole in Bricktown is still open, because you’re probably going to be closing some bars down there over several nights in late May and early June.

5. Am I underthinking the Wolves’ side of the Towns trade?

Maybe. At first blush, I thought about it through the lens of how unfair it is that the collective bargaining agreement’s second apron essentially forced the hand of a mid-market team such as the Wolves, who did most everything right in building a true title contender, into having to move a key player like Towns because of his monster contract. But … maybe the Wolves will be a better team moving forward? They clearly needed a wing who could shoot, so if you believe Donte DiVincenzo’s 3-point volume (705 attempts) and percentage (40.1 percent) in New York are for real, getting him and Julius Randle for Towns makes sense.

Randle’s physicality will be a badly needed change-up for the finesse-heavy Wolves. If he’s willing to anchor second-man units, that would allow … Naz Reid … to space the floor as a starter at power forward off Rudy Gobert. Either way, with Randle or Reid, DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and rookie blur Rob Dillingham, Minnesota might have the best bench in the league.

6) Best French lottery rookie this season: Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr or Tidjane Salaun? (Apologies to French non-lottery rookies Pacôme Dadiet and Melvin Ajinca)

Risacher, the 6-foot-9 forward from JL Bourg, went first in last June’s draft to Atlanta. Washington took the 7-1 Sarr, who played in Australia’s National Basketball League with Perth last season, with the second pick. And Charlotte took a flier on the 6-9 Salaun, who came on after playing for Cholet in France’s Pro A League, with the sixth pick. I’m too chicken to pick Salaun, who’s going to have some monster nights in Charlotte getting set up by LaMelo Ball, so I’m going with Risacher, because he should get plenty of straight-line drives and open looks playing off Trae Young.

7. So, Risacher gets Rookie of the Year?

No. That will be Houston’s Reed Sheppard, who’s set up perfectly to shine this season with occasionally gaudy numbers from deep for the up-and-coming Rockets, who’ll post a better record than Atlanta.

8. With Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard unavailable again, what do Steve Ballmer and the Clippers do to fill their beautiful new Intuit Dome until 2026, when they’ll have cap space again?

May I suggest bringing this lady in for a two-year residency?

9. Most likely contract year/incoming player option explosion this season?

James R. Buckets, Esq.

10. Is Milwaukee done?

No. While I wonder how patient Giannis Antetokounmpo will be if there’s another early-round flameout, I don’t know that the Bucks could have done better with their second-apron limitations than adding Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and the King of Deflections Delon Wright in free agency. That depth will give Doc Rivers an opportunity to put Antetokounmpo and Lillard on the Kevin Garnett minutes plan during the regular season, so they both should be fresher in the playoffs. It may cost Milwaukee a seed or two in the East, but so what? A healthy Dame and Greek Freak can challenge anyone in a seven-game series, including Boston.

11. New coach who’ll have the greatest impact: Charles Lee (Charlotte), Jordi Fernández (Brooklyn), J.B. Bickerstaff (Detroit), Kenny Atkinson (Cleveland), Mike Budenholzer (Phoenix) or JJ Redick (Lakers)?

I’m Team Bud. You win Coach of the Year in two different shops, you know what you’re doing. And it’s safe to say that, while Budenholzer had a two-time NBA MVP in Giannis in Milwaukee, he’s never had this much talent to work with. My expectation is that he’ll be able to get more out of Kevin Durant at power forward than Frank Vogel could, that he’ll find ways to better unlock Bradley Beal and that he’ll squeeze slightly more defensive out of the Suns (they were 13th in the league last season in defensive rating) to make them a final four team in the West. Still, the obvious tanking for Cooper Flagg that will permeate much of the East’s also-rans will allow one of Detroit or Charlotte to make a Play-In run, for which either Lee or Bickerstaff should get a significant raise. And, a parade. And, a pony. (Doc Rivers in Milwaukee and Brian Keefe in Washington are technically in their first full seasons with their teams, but they obviously got a head start finishing with them last season, so I didn’t include them here.)

12. Wemby, Year 2: Are the Spurs a playoff team?

If they were in the East, absolutely. But in the ridiculously stacked West?

Well, this will be Chris Paul’s 20th (!) NBA season. In his first 19 seasons, his team has made the playoffs 15 times. And two of the four times his team didn’t make the postseason were his first two years in the league. Since Year 3 of the Point God as a pro, he’s 15 of 17. Yes, most of those years, CP3 has been on stacked teams in LA or Houston or Phoenix. But in 2020, he led a decidedly un-stacked OKC team, with a second-year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to 44 wins and a spot in the Orlando bubble, where the Thunder damn near took out James Harden’s Rockets in the first round. And in exactly none of those years has Paul played with a big like Wembanyama, all apologies to Blake Griffin. Uber-vet Harrison Barnes is joining them and Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. Rookie Stephon Castle has looked the part of a lottery pick during the preseason. If it sounds like I’m trying to talk myself into a Spurs run to postseason fun, I am.

But I’m stopping San Antonio at the Play-In round.

13. Best under-the-radar pickup in free agency?

I really like the fit of Naji Marshall in Dallas, essentially replacing Derrick Jones Jr., who went to the Clippers. The 26-year-old Marshall is a year younger than Jones, cost the Mavs a little less than Jones wound up getting in LA and shot it better from deep last season. And defensively, Marshall and Jones were a wash last year; per Dunks & Threes, Jones was in the 92nd percentile last year in estimated defensive plus-minus; Marshall was in the 91st. That’s going to be important as Dallas imports Klay Thompson to play big minutes this season; Marshall and the Dereck Lively II/Daniel Gafford center combo are going to be all that stands between the Mavs and giving up 110-plus every night.

14. Who needs to make a trade by the deadline?

I wonder how patient the Nuggets can be, especially if they fall off the pace of the top four in the West out of the gate. With their free agent losses the last two summers (Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), they feel at least one player short. But I also wonder exactly what they’d be willing to do; the earliest first-round pick they can move is their 2031 first. Geesh. And the only non-Jokić/Jamal Murray player who would be certain to bring back someone of quality would be Aaron Gordon, whom they just gave a juicy four-year, $133 million extension before the deadline Monday. I know the Nuggets love their young guys; now they have to count on them.

15. OK, give me a name: Who’s gone by the deadline?

I’ll go with Jonas Valančiūnas. I get the Wizards’ rationale: Wanting to keep Sarr from getting beaten up in the paint as long as possible, they went in for three years and $30 million for the 32-year-old Valančiūnas, allowing them to bring Sarr off the bench. But the main thing is the main thing in D.C.: Washington’s 65 or so losses this season from potentially getting a chance at a marquee talent at the top of the 2025 draft. That’s the mission. Valančiūnas is still big and strong and tough and liable to ring up some double-doubles after the All-Star break against also-rans in games that could, uh, impede the mission. So, instead, I’m imagining Washington would rather use the last two months of the regular season to get a real good look at, say, Tristan Vukčević in the middle. Hey, he’s part of their future!

LeBron James pushed hard for the Lakers to get Valančiūnas in free agency before he signed with the Wizards; the Lakers can deal either or both of their 2029 and 2031 first-rounders outright, or use pick swaps in 2026, 2028 and 2030, if they still want to get Valančiūnas before the deadline. But there are a half-dozen other teams that could also use the Jonasaurus down the stretch.

16. You buying the Sixers as a legit contender?

I want to. But PG-13 is already hurt, and Joel Embiid is going to be on a pitch count all season. I’m just not feeling confident that they’ll both get to May healthy, and they both have to be healthy for Philly to have any chance to knock off Boston.

17. Who will be the biggest free agents available after this season?

Them. I still can’t believe this is going to actually happen.

18. Will the Lakers defend their, uh, Emirates NBA Cup championship?

This really is important to you, isn’t it? I’m guessing they won’t, for what it’s worth.

19. Eastern Conference playoff teams, non-Play-In?

Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Miami, Indiana.

20. And the Eastern finals?

The C’s and … I can’t pick ’em, Gotham! We’re going back to the Land of the Mouse! I’m all in on the KCP Effect, Orlando!

21. Western Conference playoff teams, non-Play-In?

Oklahoma City, Dallas, Phoenix, Minnesota, Denver, New Orleans, Sacramento, L.A. Lakers.

21a. Excuse me. I’m an owner of a team in Los Angeles, with my own arena and I couldn’t help but notice you haven’t included my team in the postseason.

This isn’t Jeanie, right?

22. And the Western finals?

It’s the new Red River Shootout: OKC and the Mavericks.

23. And the champion will be?….

To hell with parity. Boston and Dallas run it back. But this time, it’s Luka Time!

Numbers, sticky ones, keep me from picking the C’s to repeat: 24, 20 and 19. Those are the playoff games Boston’s logged the last three seasons, 63 total — three-fourths of another full season, in three years. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have played in each of those 62 games; Al Horford has played in 62. Tatum has logged 2,550 playoff minutes during that stretch; Brown, 2,378; Horford, 2,007. Boston has other key players in its rotation, to be sure: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Porziņģis. But its big three have shouldered the biggest load. At some point, that pounding, at the highest levels of intensity, catches up with most everyone. Hope I’m wrong, but it’s hard for anybody to keep going to the well.

Concurrently, I love how the Mavs have built around their superstar.

Thompson’s arrival is not without its challenges for the Mavericks, but he brings championship credibility to Dallas’ locker room, and opposing defenses still have to honor his range, which will open things up even more for Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Marshall’s two-way impact was noted above. Add to that Dallas getting a full season out of Gafford and P.J. Washington, both added at the deadline last season, and Lively improving in his second season. Add to that the Mavs’ low-key lengthening of their bench by bringing back Spencer Dinwiddie and getting Quentin Grimes from Detroit in the Tim Hardaway Jr., deal. Add to that my belief that Irving would fare much better if he got another crack at the Celtics in a finals.

And, finally, add the biggest factor of all.

Dončić is elite. And elite players, once they get a taste of playing for a ring, and lose, usually come back in with even better focus, and greater determination to win it all. There are no Olympics or World Cup for Dončić next summer. He can leave everything on the NBA floor in June. And he will. Boston will have to wait on Banner 19, as the Mavs raise Banner 2.

24) Tell me, again, why it’s 24 Questions?

It’s my tribute to the 24-second shot clock, which turns 70 years old this year, and is the most important innovation in the history of the league. It’s clear: The shot clock saved the NBA.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Barry Gossage / NBAE, Glenn James / NBAE, Mark Blinch / Getty Images)