On the same ballot as the scintillating presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R), voters in San Antonio will have the chance to weigh in on a host of downballot races worth following this fall.
The U.S. Senate race between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred will be blanketing the state with ads, and a good year for either party could bring other contests along with it.
Democrats are aiming to take back a state House seat on the Southside, and again targeting a Republican-held seat on the Northside — both in the name of stopping Republicans from advancing a school voucher plan in the upcoming Texas legislative session.
San Antonio political strategist Laura Barberena said that for Democrats, switching presidential nominees from President Joe Biden to Harris offers a major boost to downballot candidates in Texas’ large urban counties.
“Her being a woman of color, bringing hope and joy back into the conversation — that positivity is infectious, and it’s going to really bring out the base, which before was a real concern,” she said.
“Particularly in a dark red state like Texas, it’s really hard to get folks fired up to come out for the presidential,” she added. “But having someone like Kamala on the top of the ticket, it’s bringing new excitement… people want to be a part of something, and add their voice to the larger narrative of her unlikely journey.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to protect some of their last-remaining elected offices in Bexar County, including state House Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) and Bexar County Commissioner, Grant Moody (Pct. 3), who are considered some of the party’s rising stars.
They’re also trying to flip a trio of seats of the 4th Court of Appeals this year, where Democrats have been winning by razor-thin margins.
Craig Murphy, a Republican political strategist for works for Lujan, said unlike past years, Trump is polling ahead of down-ballot Republicans in Texas — meaning he’s helping their campaigns — and the GOP has continued to make gains in predominantly Hispanic districts like Lujan’s.
But Murphy cautioned that between the assassination attempt on Trump in July, the unusually far apart national conventions, and the new Democratic nominee, many campaigns have waited for the landscape to settle before starting their polling.
“This is the most atypical election anybody’s ever seen because of all the weird developments that are unprecedented this late in the election cycle,” he said.
For that reason, this list will be updated closer to the election.
But for now, here are the top races the reporters and editors of the San Antonio Report will be watching on Nov. 5.
1. U.S. Senate: Keeping the heat on Cruz
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz started his career focused squarely on Republicans — riding the conservative wave to an upset victory in his 2012 U.S. Senate race, then nearly capturing his party’s nomination for president four years later.
But after Democrat Beto O’Rourke shocked the political world by holding Cruz to a 2.6% margin in 2018, the Republican has sought to soften his partisan warrior image headed into his second reelection race.
Democrats’ nominee, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), is focused on making sure Texans don’t forget the old Cruz, who shut down the federal government in an effort to defund Obamacare, had repeatedly urged the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade throughout his career, and in 2020, led an effort to stop the election results from being certified for President Joe Biden.
Allred, a former NFL linebacker, worked as a civil rights attorney before winning a Dallas-area Congressional seat that had long belonged to Republicans in 2018.
While his U.S. Senate campaign hasn’t generated the type of cult following O’Rourke’s did, he’s raised plenty of money to get his message across and embraced more traditional campaign tactics than his predecessor.
At the national level, neither Republicans nor Democrats are eager to sink big resources into this race, even if it’s one of Democrats’ only pickup opportunities on the Senate map.
2. Texas’ 28th Congressional District: Cuellar battles legal woes
U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived the race of his life two years ago — narrowly fending off a progressive primary challenger, then weathering millions of dollars in attacks from a well-qualified Republican.
Now Cuellar is looking like a much riper target, after draining his campaign account on lawyers’ fees as he and his wife prepare to stand trial next year on charges of bribery, unlawful foreign influence and money laundering.
He told the San Antonio Report in July that he hasn’t assembled a campaign team for this election cycle, but it’s unclear whether Republicans will put up a strong opposition this year either.
Cuellar’s 13-percentage point victory in 2022 was compelling enough that the national GOP closed up shop in his district earlier this year.
Republican Jay Furman is a retired U.S. Navy Commander who recently moved to the San Antonio area with the intention of running for office.
He excited conservatives with his opposition to vaccine mandates for the military during Covid, but spent the primary railing against GOP leaders in D.C., who have in turn focused their resources elsewhere this cycle.
3. Texas House District 118: An old Democratic stronghold
Both Democrats and Republicans agree this South Texas seat will be one of the most hard-fought races of the fall — a rarity after redistricting has left hardly any truly competitive districts.
Though once a Democratic stronghold, Lujan, a former San Antonio firefighter, flipped House District 118 for Republicans in a 2021 special election, then fended off Democrat Frank Ramirez the following November with 52% of the vote.
Lujan’s deep ties to the district and personal charm made him a top recruit for GOP leaders who put big money behind him in those races — and are poised to do so again — but this year is likely to be more challenging for a variety of reasons.
Lujan now has a legislative record to defend that includes some tough votes, including siding with Gov. Greg Abbott on a plan to create school vouchers. And his opponent, progressive political organizer Kristian Carranza, has been raising the money that was sorely missing from her predecessor’s race.
Democratic leaders have been hammering the idea that their party may not be able to flip the House, but they can flip enough seats to stop school vouchers from passing next session. Republicans, meanwhile, have been attacking Carranza for changing her name last year ahead of the race.
President Joe Biden would have carried the redrawn district by roughly 2.7 percentage points.
4. Texas House District 121: A shakeup in the primary
This Northside district wouldn’t be on the radar if not for an upset in the GOP primary, where state House Rep. Steve Allison (R-Alamo Heights) fell victim to Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign to rid the party of members who oppose school vouchers.
Allison’s broad appeal helped him easily defeat past challengers, even as Democrats made inroads with college-educated suburbanites elsewhere in the state.
Without him, Democrats will once again make a play for the seat, this time with political newcomer Laurel Jordan Swift, who joined the race a week before the filing deadline.
The orthopedic device saleswoman has since raised more money than Republican Marc LaHood, and has been trying to court support from both parties.
LaHood, an attorney, came from a family of Democrats, but caught the attention of conservatives with his energetic campaign against District Attorney Joe Gonzales (D) in 2022, which focused on making nuisance crime a higher priority.
He’s stayed relatively quiet since the primary, which was more about border security than crime or school vouchers, and featured both Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton campaigning on his behalf.
Trump would have carried the redrawn district by 2.3 percentage points.
5. Bexar County Commissioner Precinct 3: The GOP’s lone seat
Republicans have exactly one stronghold in Bexar County government, Precinct 3, and changing that would likely require some major headwinds higher on the ticket.
Conservatives chose Commissioner Grant Moody (Pct. 3), a Marine fighter pilot, for the seat in 2022, and he’s since been embraced by the party’s old guard too, thanks in part to his loaded corporate resume, including stints at USAA and Valero.
Still, Moody faced a well-funded challenge from his right this year, and continues to walk a fine line between satisfying his party’s activists and navigating a court of Democrats.
He faces a rematch against Susan Korbel, who owns her own public opinion firm and previously served on the Alamo Colleges District’s board of directors. Korbel has been closely involved with local Democratic politics in recent years, in particular, efforts to make the party more competitive on the Northside.
Former President Donald Trump carried the precinct by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2020, but Moody took 53.6% of the vote to Korbel’s 46.4% in their 2022 race.
6. The Fourth Court of Appeals: GOP takes aim at a blue court
This seven-member court features some of the region’s best political matchups.
It’s responsible for hearing appeals cases from 32 counties across South Texas and the Hill Country — a political subdivision that has supported both Republicans and Democrats in recent years.
Democrats held six of the seats before Judge Patricia Alvarez (D-Place 3) retired in the middle of her term, and Republicans are taking aim at three of them.
Place 3: Gov. Greg Abbott appointed Lori Massey Brissette (R) to Alvarez’s seat in July, but because the change happened so late, Brissette had already signed up to run for Place 4 this November.
The now open race features Democrat Cynthia Marie Chapa, who is currently a judge in the 288th Civil District Court, against Republican Todd McCray, a private attorney who has worked as a special prosecutor in Bexar County.
Place 4: Incumbent Democrat Luz Elena Chapa (D-Place 4), who has served on the court since 2013, faces a challenge from Brissette, who previously served as a judge in the 288th District Court.
Place 5: Liza Rodriguez (D-Place 5), who was first elected in 2018, faces a challenge from Republican Adrian Spears, who has a background in municipal law.
7. State Board of Education: A surprise opening
The 15-member State Board of Education is home of some of the state’s hottest political battles: Setting curriculum and choosing textbooks for Texas public schools.
This year seven seats are up for reelection, including an open race in District 1, which stretches from West San Antonio to El Paso.
Incumbent Democrat Melissa Ortega made a last-minute decision not to seek reelection, setting off a scramble for her party to find a replacement.
They landed on Gustavo Reveles, a former journalist who works as an administrator for El Paso Independent School District. He’s running against Republican Michael Travis Stevens, a high school teacher who has a doctorate in education and curriculum.
Stevens ran for the seat in 2022, and took 44% to Ortega’s 56%.
Bonus: Higher pay, longer terms for San Antonio City Council
The San Antonio City Council is asking voters to weigh in on a list of proposed City Charter amendments that will also go to voters for approval on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Highlights include Proposition E, which would increase City Council salaries from $45,700 per year to $70,200 per year, and Proposition F, which would institute longer terms for members of the City Council and mayor.
Proposition C would undo limits on the salary and tenure of the city manager that voters approved in 2018. It has the support of business groups, and is opposed by the progressive group Act4SA.