“An LDP incumbent prime minister cannot run in the presidential race unless he’s assured of a victory. It’s like the grand champion yokozunas of sumo. You don’t just win, but you need to win with grace,” said Koichi Nakano, political science professor at Sophia University in Japan.
Who ever succeeds Mr Kishida as the head of the LDP will have to unite a fractious ruling group and tackle the rising cost of living, escalating geopolitical tensions with China, and the potential return of Donald Trump as US president next year.
Covid to inflation
As the country’s eighth-longest serving post-war leader, Mr Kishida led Japan out of the Covid pandemic with massive stimulus spending. He also appointed Kazuo Ueda as head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), an academic tasked with ending his predecessor’s radical monetary stimulus.
The BOJ in July unexpectedly raised interest rates as inflation took hold, contributing to stock market instability and sending the yen sharply lower.
Mr Kishida’s departure could mean tighter fiscal and monetary conditions depending on the candidate, according to Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
“In short, risk-assets, particularly equities, will likely be hit the most,” he said.
In another break from the past, Mr Kishida also eschewed corporate profit-driven trickle-down economics in favour of policies aimed at boosting household incomes, including wage hikes and promoting share ownership.
Defence spending
Despite that departure on the economy, he stuck with the hawkish security policies of predecessor Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.
He unveiled Japan’s biggest military buildup since the Second World War, with a commitment to double defence spending aimed at deterring neighbouring China from pursuing its territorial ambitions in East Asia through military force.
With prodding from Washington, Mr Kishida also mended Japan’s strained relations with South Korea, enabling the two countries and their mutual ally, the US, to pursue deeper security cooperation to counter the threat posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs.
“Under Prime Minister Kishida’s steadfast leadership, Japan and the United States have ushered in a new era of relations for the Alliance,” US Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.