Vice President Kamala Harris got a worrying sign in Michigan, a critical swing state in November’s election, in a poll released on Friday.
While it remains a close race between Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, and Harris, the vice president has been doing better in Michigan for the past month. Harris was nominated to be the Democratic Party’s nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21. However, a new poll shows that the former president is ahead of Harris by 1 point in the battleground state.
A survey conducted between August 23 and 26 by EPIC MRA, a polling firm in Michigan, found that 47 percent of the 600 respondents polled would vote for Trump and 46 percent would vote for Harris. However, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, meaning that the results represent a statistical tie.
The poll had a fairly even mix of Republicans and Democrats. A total of 43 percent of respondents identified themselves as Republicans while 41 percent identified as Democrats. Thirteen percent identified as independent.
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s and Harris’ campaigns via email for comment on Saturday afternoon.
On average, Harris still leads Trump by over two points in Michigan (46.6 to 44.1 percent), according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight. Trump was ahead of Harris until July 30 when the vice president jumped 1.7 points ahead of him. For the past month, she has been slightly increasing her lead for the most part, reaching a high of plus 3.4 points at times. However, this lead has been slightly decreasing since Thursday.
Battleground states, including Michigan, will play a key role in determining the result of this year’s election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.
The Silver Bulletin Presidential Model also has Harris ahead of Trump in Michigan. According to the model’s polling averages, the vice president leads Trump by 1.9 points (48.3 to 46.4 percent).
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How Does Harris Fare in Other Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by 1.3 points in Pennsylvania (48.2 to 46.9 percent), by 0.9 points in Georgia (48.3 to 47.4 percent), by 3.2 points in Wisconsin (49.4 to 46.2 percent) and by 0.9 points in Nevada (48.6 to 47.7 percent), according to the Silver Bulletin’s polling averages.
Meanwhile, Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.4 points in North Carolina (48.4 to 48 percent) and by 0.6 points in Arizona (48.5 to 47.9 percent).
How Are Both Nominees Doing Nationally?
Harris is currently beating Trump on the national stage by 3.5 points. The Silver Bulletin has the vice president with 49.1 percent of the vote and Trump with 45.6.