Former President Donald Trump has made gains among union voters in Michigan, according to a new poll.
Trump, the Republican nominee, is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, 45 percent to 44 percent, in the survey commissioned by Marketing Resource Group, a Lansing-based consulting firm.
Both Trump and Harris are competing for workers’ support in a “blue wall” state that could be pivotal in November’s election. Both candidates will be campaigning in Michigan later this week.
Trump has “made significant headway” with Michigan union voters, MRG noted in a press release about its latest survey.
Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
The poll, which surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters between October 7 and 11, found 42 percent of union voters planned to vote for Trump—up 11 points from a survey conducted in the spring—while 51 percent were supporting Harris. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
MRG’s earlier survey had Trump securing 31 percent support among union voters, while President Joe Biden—then the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee—had 45 percent support among union voters. That poll had surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters between April 8 and 11 and also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The new survey also found that Trump is leading Harris with independent voters, with 35 percent support compared to Harris’ 26 percent.
“Harris has done a slightly better job solidifying her base, which will be critical in a close race where turnout is needed, but the race to the White House will also come down to winning the support of the moveable middle,” Jenell Leonard, the owner of MRG, said in a statement.
“Right now, only 75% of independent voters definitely plan to vote in the general election, and Trump has a slight edge of support from those who identify as Independent. Trump is also enjoying the growth in support from traditionally Democrat-leaning demographics including unions.”
Polling by Gallup in September showed a majority of Americans still believe the Democratic Party serves the interests of union members better than the Republican Party.
But concerns about Harris’ standing among the group grew when she failed to secure the endorsements of two unions who backed Biden in 2020.
Though union members account for only a small portion of the electorate, union endorsements can make a huge difference in battleground states like Michigan, where victory is likely to hinge on small margins.
In September, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced it would not be endorsing any candidate. The union’s president, Sean O’Brien, said one reason for the union not backing a candidate was because “half our membership are Democrats and half are Republicans.” Harris is the first Democrat in more than two decades not to secure the Teamsters’ presidential endorsement.
The International Association of Firefighters declined to back any candidate earlier in October, with IAFF General President Edward Kelly saying the decision was made after taking “unprecedented steps to hear our members views on the candidates and the policy issues that matter most to them.”
Harris did land the endorsement of the United Auto Workers, one of the nation’s largest labor unions, which is headquartered in Michigan, soon after entering the race in July. National teachers unions, building trade unions and the AFL-CIO, America’s largest federation of trade unions, have all backed the vice president.