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What are you doing here and not fully embracing the first weeknight of MACtion? There’s nothing else on tonight … right?
Oh yes! The first College Football Playoff Rankings reveal of the 12-team era just aired — and it’s more entertaining than election coverage.
Here’s the committee’s inaugural Top 25, along with my analysis.
CFP Rankings
The first field’s biggest takeaways
The first Top 25 of the 12-team era is out for our debate! And here’s what the bracket would look like, if the season ended right now:
Who’s No. 13? SMU. The ACC’s Mustangs (8-1, 5-0) are the first team out, for now. They have two wins against teams ranked by the committee: a 34-27 result against No. 22 Louisville and a 48-25 blowout of No. 18 Pitt. Austin Mock still has the Mustangs with a 52 percent chance to make the field. Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1) is No. 14, the second team out.
This team never would have made it (Power 4 version): Before the season, few would’ve guessed Alabama would be on the bubble. But now, a team with two losses? In the CFP field? Welcome to the 12-team era. The Crimson Tide don’t have any margin for error (more on that later), but the committee really values their win against No. 2 Georgia. And yes, Indiana is currently the 9-seed and looks like this season’s most interesting contender.
This team never would have made it at all: Boise State! The top Group of 5 representative slots surprisingly highly. Remember, the top four seeds — and first-round byes — go to the four highest-ranked conference champions from the P4 or Group of 5 (the remaining champ plays in the first round). Boise State is only three spots below BYU in the Top 25, the highest-ranked Big 12 team. The Cougs could have some beef with this close call, given their two ranked wins (No. 13 SMU and No. 19 Kansas State) to Boise State’s zero.
Biggest difference from AP: Army (8-0, 6-0) was snubbed by the committee at No. 25 despite being No. 18 in the AP poll. This probably has to do with the Black Knights’ lack of resume-building wins, though they’ll get a chance against No. 10 Notre Dame soon. On the other hand, Pitt (7-1, 3-1) got a little more love from the committee and ranked No. 18 (compared to No. 23 in the AP).
Game with most CFP impact this week: No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU. With both teams at 6-2, this feels like our biggest true CFP eliminator so far this season. If Alabama gets its third conference loss this weekend, the Crimson Tide would surely fall out of the committee’s top 12 next week, though that win over Georgia could remain significant.
The “Until Saturday” podcast reacted to the rankings live here.
Remain Calm
History shows rankings will change a lot
Tonight’s rankings are fun to debate — and give us our first glance at how the committee’s decisions may differ in the 12-team era — but how much will they matter? The simple answer is: not very much. The only rankings that will impact the postseason are the ones released on Selection Sunday (Dec. 8).
I dug into some numbers from the past 10 years of the CFP to see how much the initial rankings tend to fluctuate by season’s end. Here’s what I found:
- Only once in the four-team era did the same teams that started in the top four finish there as well. It happened in 2020 (a plentiful season for weird things), although the order changed from Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Expect even more meaningful change in a 12-team field.
- But the odds are pretty good, if you start No. 1. The initial top team finished there four times in 10 years. The lowest an inaugural No. 1 team ended up was No. 7, which happened in the CFP’s first year with Mississippi State and last year with Ohio State. Only three times did the first No. 1 end up not making the Playoff (2014 Mississippi State, 2022 Tennessee and 2023 Ohio State). A bigger field will also mean much more cushion — all those No. 1 teams would have made it in a 12-team field.
- So how much do the rankings change? There was the most fluctuation in 2022, when seven teams not ranked in the first rankings appeared in the Top 25 on Selection Sunday. No year has been perfect from the outset, with 2017 having the highest hit rate: only two new entries by the season’s end. Yes, your unranked team might still have a chance!
Quick Snaps
Using all that knowledge of how the initial rankings project (or don’t project) the final ones, make sure to join The Athletic’s bracket challenge by Friday. Submit your prediction for the final CFP bracket, and you’ll get points for each team that makes the field (extra for correct seeding). The top three scorers will win a free year subscription or extension to The Athletic! Enter here and watch the “Until Saturday” prediction show here.
Will the 12-team committee sway toward the Big Ten and SEC in its rankings? Will a superconference bias emerge? Here’s what commissioners said before the initial reveal.
The committee’s ranking process is not as simple as it may appear. And contrary to what we might hear from the committee chair on ESPN each Tuesday, it rarely comes to a complete consensus. Chris Vannini explains the process from inside the committee room.
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(Top photo: Michael Miller / ISI Photos /Getty Images)