13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 13

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For me, Thanksgiving week is like a fantasy manager having to deal with multiple teams on bye. There are fewer teams for me to write about, with three Thanksgiving games and, for the second year in a row, a game on Black Friday. I usually ignore Thursday’s action completely, instead focusing on what lies ahead. But we don’t always have the worst display of clock management in NFL history occurring the day before the article is published. And speaking of Black Friday, Matt Eberflus couldn’t even make it to the weekend.

The inexplicable decision to not call a timeout was the final straw—or maybe it was Eberflus’ attempt to justify it?

Just 17 days after Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, they’ve now parted ways with Eberflus. Thomas Brown, who started the month as the passing game coordinator, is now the interim head coach for the rest of the season. In this ever-changing league, nothing stays the same for long.

Here are a few things fantasy managers should keep an eye on heading into this weekend’s Week 13 games and beyond.

1. Saquon Barkley: Chasing history

You may have already heard, but Barkley had an incredible fantasy performance last week. Barkley broke off two 70+ yard runs and finished with an Eagles record 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Those two long runs continue a season-long trend of Barkley hitting home runs. After Sunday’s game, he has six runs of 40-plus yards — no other player has more than three. He also caught four passes for 47 yards, just because he could. Honestly, I think Saquon scored another 10 PPR points while I was writing this paragraph.

OK, we get it, Theo. Saquon is the league winner. If you check the standings in your fantasy league, it’s hard to find a bad team with Saquon Barkley on its roster. Some fantasy analysts were optimistic heading into the season about Barkley’s potential, playing alongside the best quarterback and offensive line of his career. Even the most bullish Saquon enthusiasts, however, could not have predicted this kind of season.

Breaking LeSean McCoy’s franchise records for single-season rushing yardage and yards from scrimmage seems almost inevitable. Barkley even has the NFL record in his sights. He is now projected to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, set back in 1984.

Barkley has been so dominant in fantasy this season that even random teams are catching strays.

2. A Bryce Young bounceback?

The Dave Canales “quarterback whisperer” narrative lives on to fight another day. Bryce Young was left for dead by fantasy managers earlier in the season after being benched in Week 3 in favor of 37-year-old Andy Dalton. However, a thumb injury to Dalton reopened the door for the former No. 1 overall pick. While Young’s fantasy numbers haven’t been impactful, they also haven’t been terrible. He led Carolina to a rare two-game winning streak, and this past Sunday they nearly knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs before falling in overtime, 30-27. Young passed for 263 yards, his second-highest total as a professional. He made some big-time throws and effectively spread the ball around the field.

Canales’ acumen as a play-caller was on full display. He has resurrected the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, and he also served as Russell Wilson’s QB coach during Wilson’s best fantasy season in Seattle. If Young continues to play well down the stretch, he could follow this trend. He might even position himself as the frontrunner to be the starter —o r at least a key part of a quarterback competition — heading into 2025.

3. Jonathon Who? Chuba Hubbard backfield domination

The much-anticipated debut of Jonathon Brooks turned into a “nothing to see here” moment. Fantasy managers rostering Hubbard breathed a collective sigh of relief as Hubbard dominated all statistical categories. He out-touched Brooks 17-2 and logged an 88% snap share.

Hubbard found the end zone for the eighth time this season and crossed 1,000 scrimmage yards for the second year in a row. With improved play from Bryce Young and a clear bell-cow role, Hubbard has a legitimate chance to finish with his first RB1 season as a pro.

4. Bucky Irving: The takeover

Tampa Bay returned from their bye week and throttled the New York Giants, 30-7. The story of the game fantasy wise was the performance of Irving. This was certainly not the rookie’s breakout game. Since Week 6, Irving scored 15.4 points or more in four out of five games. But this game was different. Irving not only set a new season high in fantasy points (27.1), but he outsnapped Rachaad White for the first time all season.

Irving also dominated the routes run and out-targeted White 6-1, and he caught all six of them. Last season at Oregon, Irving led the nation in receptions at the running back position. Rachaad White was fourth among all RBs in the NFL last season with 64 catches, and is fifth this season. Usurping White as the preferred pass catcher out of the backfield speaks volumes to Irving’s talent level and the Tampa Bay coaching staff’s belief in him to deliver each week.

He has been one of the most elusive runners in the league all season long, and he is electric with the ball in his hands. Irving being used even more as a receiver gives him more opportunities to make plays in space.

Expect Irving to be a red-hot name heading into 2025 redraft season. He will be a player who fantasy managers do not want to leave their drafts without.

5. The most underrated correlation play in fantasy

I have written about Bo Nix multiple times in this column, and deservedly so. He is currently QB7 on the season and is generating plenty of Offensive Rookie of the Year buzz — he is listed at +125, second to only Jayden Daniels (-150) in the most recent odds update.

But this isn’t another Bo Nix hype piece. Instead, it’s a chance to step back and highlight the outstanding play of his No. 1 target, Courtland Sutton. Since Week 5, Sutton is averaging 20.8 PPG — second among all wideouts, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase. During the same stretch, Nix has been the QB3. Quite the dynamic duo.

Sutton has been a metrics monster all season and the focal point of the Broncos passing attack. According to Fantasy Points Data, he boasts a 41.6% Air Yards Share and a 23.4% Target Share.

Sutton caught eight passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in Denver’s 29-19 win over Las Vegas, finishing with a season-high 29.7 fantasy points. Sutton is having the best season of his seven-year career in Denver. Expect to hear “Nix to Sutton” many more times this season, as the Broncos continue to lean on this red-hot connection.

6. How about some positive TD regression in the fantasy playoffs?

Arizona returned from their bye week with a disappointing 16-6 loss to Seattle. One massive bright spot was Trey McBride. The third-year TE was a target magnet, leading all players in Week 12 with a 40.5% target share. His first read rate was even higher at 58.%.

McBride is second among all TEs in receiving yards with 685, and his 61 catches are the third highest at the position. But McBride notably (and shockingly) has zero receiving TDs on the season — he did score on a rushing TD in Week 9. McBride has the 22nd-most catches all time without a TD and is 25 shy of tying Diontae Johnson’s fantasy nightmare of 86 set in 2022. Maybe McBride is saving them all for the fantasy playoffs?

7. Taysom Hill returns

There were concerns — now laughable ones — that Taysom Hill’s role as a fantasy Swiss Army knife would disappear when Dennis Allen was fired. However, new head coach Darren Rizzi hasn’t just maintained Hill’s role, he’s fully embraced and expanded it. In Week 11, Hill went nuclear, scoring a jaw-dropping 41.5 fantasy points — good enough to finish as both theNo. 1  TE and QB for the week (Hill is TE-eligible in most formats this year). Hill scored three touchdowns, rushed for a career-high 138 yards, and set another career mark with eight receptions.

The Saints dominated the Browns from start to finish, winning 35-14, with Hill leading the charge. It sounds like fantasy managers could be in for more of the same in Week 13, as New Orleans returns from their bye week.

This full embrace of Hill has transformed him into a fantasy football weapon of mass destruction at the TE position. He could be the difference-maker you need in the fantasy playoffs.

8. Nico Collins’ nullified scores

Nico Collins is fully back. After scoring just 9.4 points in his first game back from injury in Week 11, Collins returned to his dominant form in Week 12. He finished with five catches for 92 yards and a touchdown, including a 5-yard score and a highlight-worthy 56-yard reception. His usage was elite, finishing in the top 10 at the position for the week in both air yards share (41.4%) and target share (27.3%).

But Collins’ fantasy numbers could have been much better — way better. He’s been one of the unluckiest players in fantasy football over the past two weeks, with not one but two touchdowns overturned due to penalties.

The Texans lost to Tennessee but have a prime opportunity to rebound on the road against the moribund 2-9 Jaguars. Collins should feast on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season.

9. Christian McCaffrey: Explosiveness concerns?

Brandon Allen’s debut, combined with Trent Williams’ absence, proved catastrophic for the 49ers offense. Multiple players struggled from a fantasy perspective, including Christian McCaffrey. CMC finished with just 7.8 PPR points—his worst scoring output in 25 months. Despite the quarterback and offensive line downgrades, many are pointing fingers at McCaffrey’s lack of explosiveness since returning from injury.

Brock Purdy remains questionable this week, and Williams is likely to miss at least another game. However, it’s difficult to bet against McCaffrey. He still maintained a 65.6% route participation rate and an 80.9% snap share — both top-three marks at the RB position, according to Fantasy Points Data.

How did McCaffrey respond the last time he had a single-digit fantasy performance in 2022? He bounced back with a monstrous 40.2 PPR points. The 49ers would love to see a vintage CMC performance as they aim to upset the Buffalo Bills on the road. The Bills are 5-0 at home this season.

10. Jaylen Warren ramp up?

For the first time this season, Jaylen Warren outscored Najee Harris in fantasy points, coinciding with a noticeable shift in usage.

Last season, Warren finished in a dead heat with Harris in fantasy PPG, edging him out 11.6 to 11.5. Warren totaled 1,000 combined yards and 61 receptions, the fifth most among all running backs. His recent surge in production could signal a larger role ahead, especially as Pittsburgh looks to rebound from a snow-game loss in Cleveland.

This increased usage also caps Harris’ ceiling, making him less reliable for fantasy managers on a week-to-week basis. Looking ahead, the Steelers could be in for a potential shootout against Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals are allowing 26.9 PPG, the fifth worst among all NFL defenses.

11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s WR1 season continues

Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued to shine, catching Seattle’s lone touchdown in a much-needed win over Arizona. Once again, JSN out-targeted (7-5) and outproduced DK Metcalf. Over his past three games, JSN has totaled 23 catches for 367 yards and three touchdowns. He has posted a 25%+ target share in every one of those games.

JSN is eighth in catches this season (66) and is on pace to break Tyler Lockett’s franchise record for receptions in a single season (100). With the Seahawks sitting at 6-5 and atop the NFC West standings, expect offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and quarterback Geno Smith to continue leaning on their breakout star in critical moments.

12. Kyren Williams’ fumbling issues

Williams continues to dominate touches in the Rams backfield. He leads all running backs with a 77.5% rush attempt share and an 87.9% snap share. Last week, I wrote about Williams’ recent downturn in fantasy scoring production. Despite finding the end zone in Week 12, the mediocre numbers continued. Williams’ 72 total yards were his fewest in the past four games. He remains in the shadow of the Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua show.

However, there’s another issue that could eventually threaten his impressive rushing and snap share numbers: fumbles. Williams coughed the ball up twice against Philadelphia.

Blake Corum appears completely buried on the depth chart, and Williams’ role seems secure for the rest of the season. However, few things open doors of opportunity for backup running backs like fumbles lost.

13. Don’t get too comfortable ….

I hate to dampen the excitement of this incredible football weekend, but Week 14 is just around the corner, and six teams will be on byes. A must-win week for fantasy managers coincides with some remarkably awful timing. In between bites of leftovers, take a look at your lineups and try to stay a few days ahead of what will be a wild final waiver wire run of the season.

Baltimore, Denver, Washington, New England, Houston, and Indianapolis are all on their byes. Oh, you have some players on your fantasy team who will be unavailable? Me too.

Anyway, enjoy the leftovers and all the games. I hope your fantasy teams run pure.

(Top photo of Taysom Hill: Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

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