Mohamed Jaber agonized in a Dearborn ballot box for five minutes before voting Sunday. The Iraqi American had always backed Democrats before.
“Should I do this?” Jaber asked himself. Then he voted for Donald Trump.
The decision Jaber made as early voting wrapped up in the crucial swing state of Michigan was a microcosm of how Arab and Muslim voters are making up their minds in the final days of the 2024 presidential race.
The economy, inflation, and culture war issues are fueling a shift away from the Democratic Party. The war in Gaza looms larger than anything else, according to conversations with two dozen Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan. Many said they were voting for Trump or third parties. Low turnout suggested that others were staying home.
As Jaber put it outside the polling place, “Unfortunately, this time it had to be a single issue: to end the conflict.”
Trump has promised to let Israel “finish the job” in Gaza, and even Arabs and Muslims who voted for him were skeptical that he is really the peace candidate he now claims to be. Still, they said that U.S. policy could hardly get worse after over a year of war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians.
Some voters also gave credit to Trump, who has a long history of racist, Islamophobic policy and comments, for visiting with Arabs and Muslims in person when Kamala Harris appears to be shying away from their communities.
“I’ve Always Been a Democrat”
In conversation after conversation, Muslim and Arab voters said they were casting their ballots for Trump in response to the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza. Other factors in the shift toward Trump include the economy and cultural issues such as the inclusion of transgender children in youth sports.
“I’ve always been a Democrat. It’s my first time being a Republican,” said Nasser Ahmed Al-Shaibi, a 41-year-old who cast his vote in Dearborn on Sunday. “Hopefully they’ll bring peace and stop the genocide in Palestine.”
Jaber, who immigrated to the U.S. as a refugee after spending part of his youth growing up in a Red Cross camp, said he had not forgotten about Trump’s ban on immigration from Muslim-majority countries. Still, the images of devastation in Gaza brought home painful memories for him.
“We’ve been through it. We see what it’s done to us and our parents and grandparents,” he said. “I voted Democratic on everything else, so hopefully there will be nice checks and balances there.”
Democrats have long held an edge among Arab and Muslim voters, but their lead with those groups ebbed with the onset of the war. A September poll by the Arab American Institute found Trump and Harris in a virtual tie. Arab Americans make up about 4 percent of the population in Michigan, a key demographic in a state that Trump won by just 10,704 votes in 2016.
There are signs that some Arab voters in Michigan may simply be sitting the election out. Three cities with large Arab and Muslim populations had much lower early voting turnouts compared to their neighbors.
Early voting turnout was 25 percent in Dearborn, 26 percent in Dearborn Heights, and 24 percent in Hamtramck, compared to 39 percent in Wayne County as a whole and 44 percent across the state.
With turnout lagging, Harris made a last-minute pitch to Arab and Muslim voters in a speech on the Michigan State University campus on Sunday night. She said the casualties in Gaza and Lebanon have been “devastating.”
“As president, I will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza, to bring home the hostages, end the suffering in Gaza, ensure Israel is secure, and ensure the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, freedom, security, and self-determination,” Harris said.
The Trump Train
Sensing an opportunity in the final weeks of the race, Trump has repeatedly parlayed with Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan. He dropped by an Arab-owned halal cafe in Dearborn on Friday, toured a new campaign office in Hamtramck last month, and invited an imam on-stage to address the crowd at a rally in a Detroit suburb.
The message from Trump’s campaign, while lacking in details, is simple: He is the peace candidate, Harris is not.
Adam Hussein, a 26-year-old Hamtramck resident who had previously voted for Democrats, said he was well aware of Trump’s history of Islamophobia but senses the former president to be evolving.
“That stuff did hurt, but at this time we have to choose between the genocide of Biden or Trump,” Hussein said. “He got to know us more now, who we are.”
Trump’s visits drew scathing criticism from some voters who said they weren’t fooled by his late-breaking friendliness toward Muslims, however.
“Next rally, he will say ‘Allahu Akbar,’” joked Ribhi Karajah, a 28-year-old PalestinianAmerican.
Still, Karajah said, the trips to Dearborn and Hamtramck could pay dividends. Harris has been nowhere to be seen.
“She doesn’t have the courage to come here, Kamala. Trump has the courage to come here,” Karajah said.
Vince Allen, a 60-year-old, non-Muslim construction worker who spent Saturday canvassing for Harris before casting his vote in Hamtramck, rolled his eyes at Trump’s recent visit to the small city.
“He’s just using them, just like he uses everybody else. Trump’s all about Trump,” Allen said.
The Stein Factor
Trump was not the only option for Arab and Muslim voters hoping to send a message. A slice of voters said they were casting protest ballots for Jill Stein, who musters low single-digit support in nationwide polls.
Her support appears to be stronger among Muslims. She had the vote of 42 percent of Muslims versus Harris’s 41 percent in a late October poll of Muslim voters commissioned by the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Stein has positioned herself as the “anti-genocide” candidate in the race and is actively courting the Muslim vote with visits to mosques.
“We need someone to stand up against the injustice that’s happening at the hands of our tax dollars,” said one Stein voter, 31-year-old Fay Mheisen.
Others did not choose Stein but found other ways of voting their conscience.
Mazer Hammoud, a 29-year-old consultant whose family is active in Democratic Party politics, said he gets daily updates from relatives in Lebanon about whether they have survived the latest Israeli bombing.
Stein is a “grifter,” Hammoud said. He cast a write-in vote instead.
“I like everything they do domestically, for the most part,” Hammoud said of the Democratic Party. “But I can’t overlook genocide. That’s the big thing for me.”
Some Harris Support
Some of the Detroit area’s most prominent Democratic Arab elected officials, including Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud and U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, have declined to endorse Harris.
Still, Harris has drawn the endorsement of mainstream Muslim groups such as Emgage Action and from some leaders of the Uncommitted movement, which sought during the presidential primary to pressure Biden to shift his position on the war.
Harris claimed the allegiance of a handful of the voters interviewed over the weekend. Some said they were disgusted by the administration’s handling of the war, but they didn’t believe Trump would be any better on the issue, so they chose Harris because she is better on domestic policies.
Osamah Alasadi, a 43-year-old immigrant from Iraq, said he saw the signs of a would-be dictator in Trump.
“He’s just Saddam Hussein, but he’s blond,” said Alasadi. “Both sides, they’re going to support Israel.”