In all likelihood, “The Bear” is going to have its second big Emmy night of the year. After winning 10 Emmys at the 2023 ceremony (which was delayed until January 2024), Christopher Storer and Joanna Calo’s hit FX cooking series is expected to perform just as well, if not better, at September’s 76th Annual Emmy Awards. It received 13 nominations for its first season and won 10. Now, it’s nominated 23 times across 18 categories. Math (ugh) tells us a 77 percent increase in season-to-season nominations should result in at least 17 wins, but even FX executives would admit that’s beyond apirational. No show has ever won more than 12 trophies for a single season (“Game of Thrones” in 2015), and winning 17 out of 18 categories would be an astonishing near-sweep, especially for a show that faced its first substantial backlash this summer.
This brings us to the question of the hour: Who should be winning all these Emmys? “The Bear” certainly has an impressive resume; even better when we remember it’s currently nominated for Season 2 (which was universally praised) and not Season 3 (which soured for a number of viewers). But what about “Only Murders in the Building,” “Reservation Dogs,” “What We Do in the Shadows,” and even comedies that don’t stream exclusively on Hulu? Unlike the Drama categories, Comedy nominees feature many critically respected and widely beloved contenders. The races are competitive, and the arguments over who’s most deserving are even more contentious.
So rather than vote for the same show in every category, why not consider the full range of nominees each time? None of these actors, writers, directors, and shows should be overlooked simply because they’re not as culturally dominant as the Chicago Beef boys. If all you want to know is who will win, IndieWire has a full list of predictions for you to keep up with from now until Emmy night. But if you want to understand what deserves to win and why — all the better to appreciate the 76th Emmy Awards’ historic choices (or, if you’re an Emmy voter, to help improve those choices) then read on.
Supporting Actress
- Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale”
- Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
- Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks“
- Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
- Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
- Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building”
A fun little game to play as winners are announced at this year’s Emmys is to guess whether voters were thinking about “The Bear” Season 2 (as they were supposed to) or Season 3 (as they inevitably did). For instance, it seems like Lisa Colón-Zayas’ nomination may have benefited from her starring role in the Season 3 episode, “Napkins”… even though that episode won’t technically be eligible until next year’s Emmys. She’s also great in Season 2, of course, but Colón-Zayas was the one aspect of a divisive Season 3 that pretty much everyone agreed was great. Did that make the difference between her and any also-rans? Could it make the difference between winning and losing on Emmy night?
Most experts doubt it, and that’s OK, because it shouldn’t be a factor. Hannah Einbinder is the correct pick here, with one acceptable caveat: If you beg category fraud, I can’t argue with that. Einbider is a lead, if not the lead of “Hacks,” which would open the door to voting for Carol Burnett or Meryl Streep as Best Supporting Actress. And rather than winning for fame and decades of goodwill alone, they’re both exceptional in their nominated parts. So take your pick. Just don’t vote based on inadmissible materials.
Supporting Actor
- Lionel Boyce, “The Bear”
- Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
- Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
- Paul Rudd, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
- Bowen Yang, “SNL”
Flipping the previous category’s circumstances, Ebon Moss-Bachrach may have already won his Emmy for “Forks,” Richie’s transformational episode of “The Bear” that was part of Season 2 but aired during last year’s Emmy run. So if voters know that they personally checked Ebon’s name on last year’s ballot because of “Forks,” then OK, maybe they can look elsewhere this year… but otherwise, it shouldn’t matter. What matters is what’s eligible, and Moss-Bachrach is unbeatable in Season 2 of “The Bear.” His character was the thorn in Season 1’s side, and the writers and actor took critical action to turn him into a well-rounded underdog in Season 2; someone who supports the show’s expansive vision of all food service workers instead of serving as nagging opposition to the wonderboy protagonist. So as much as I would love to wax poetic about Paul Rudd’s reaction shots in “Only Murders” or praise Paul W. Downs’ perfect pitch in “Hacks,” the rules dictate that we consider the submitted work, and Moss-Bachrach’s submitted work is the best of the bunch.
Directing
- Lucia Aniello, “Hacks” (“Bulletproof”)
- Mary Lou Belli, “The Ms. Pat Show” (“I’m the Pappy”)
- Randall Einhorn, “Abbott Elementary” (“Party”)
- Guy Ritchie, “The Gentlemen” (“Refined Aggression”)
- Christopher Storer, “The Bear” (“Fishes”)
- Ramy Youssef, “The Bear” (“Honeydew”)
Another game to play on Emmys night is to try to figure out just how much the TV Academy likes “Fishes,” the celebrity-heavy, supersized fifth episode of “The Bear” Season 2. The Christopher Storer-directed entry is officially nominated in eight categories, and while it’s often unclear whether voters limit their judgement to the officially selected episodes (instead of looking at the full series), we may be able to tell this time around. Before Season 3 raised objections across the board, “Fishes” sowed some of the series’ first seeds of dissent. Some viewers complained it was too long, too loud, and too obsessed with celebrities. Was it a necessary glimpse into the chaotic upbringing that birthed Carmy, and thus, his restaurant? Or was it an overindulgent exercise in emotional manipulation via A-list actors and extreme melodrama? (“The Bear,” after all, is supposed to be a comedy.)
Given its impressive nomination count, I have to imagine most TV Academy members enjoyed “Fishes,” but voting for nominees and winners has a way of distinguishing just how much they like a given candidate, and the Best Directing category offers fans of “The Bear” a chance to vote for the show without voting for “Fishes.” Frankly, I think they should — not because I dislike “Fishes,” which is honestly one of the few critical flashback episodes in a culture overrun with them, but because “Honeydew” is a beautiful, moving, and equally pivotal episode that just so happens to push someone other than Carmy to the forefront. Ramy Youssef is a three-time Emmy nominee, and “Honeydew” already snagged a nomination at last year’s DGA Awards… where it lost to “Fishes.” Why not spread the love a little, even within the same show?
Writing
- Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, “Hacks” (“Bulletproof”)
- Jake Bender and Zach Dunn, “What We Do in the Shadows” (“Pride Parade”)
- Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (“Career Day”)
- Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider, “The Other Two” (“Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good”)
- Meredith Scardino and Sam Means, “Girls5eva” (“Orlando”)
- Chistopher Storer and Joanna Calo, “The Bear” (“Fishes”)
“Fishes” Decision 2024: Part 2 isn’t as difficult as Part 1. Where “The Bear’s” direction is consistently strong, it’s writing is, let’s say, often obscured by its dedication to mood. (Also, it’s not comedy writing. Sorry.) So let’s go ahead and look elsewhere among this murderer’s row of a writing category. In another year, perhaps “Hacks” or “Abbott” would be easy picks. They’re both strong episodes in strong series, but they’re not *elite* episodes, like “Pride Parade” and “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good.” Previously, I advocated for the latter, but in my mad rush to break down 18 categories, I forgot to consider “What We Do in the Shadows” at all — I simply didn’t write it down — for which I will never, ever forgive myself. Not only is Paul Simms’ FX show near and dear to my heart but one that has been operating at the peak of its vampiric powers for a good three seasons now, and “Pride Parade” is deliriously funny. That’s the best of the lot.
Actor
- Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows”
- Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
- Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
- D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs”
In a previous breakdown of this category, I punted on picking between Matt Berry and Larry David. Frankly, D-Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai and Martin Short are solid choices, too, but the surprise of seeing Berry finally recognized for his thorough embodiment of an eternally hot, horny, and witty vampire (featuring TV’s most hysterical enunciations) combined with the finality of David’s last season of “Curb” (for which he’s never won an Emmy) makes this a two-horse race when it comes to who should win. Ultimately, I have to go with David. Not recognizing his onscreen contributions as the lead actor in one of television’s all-time great sitcoms would be a permanent blemish on a voting body that’s already covered in hives. And right after Larry’s speech (just kidding, he’s not showing up for the Emmys), they can announce Berry is guaranteed next year’s trophy. Consider it both the right thing to do and a personal favor to yours truly, who’s already feeling guilty over being forced to choose.
Actress
- Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
- Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
- Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Maya Rudolph, “Loot”
- Jean Smart, “Hacks”
- Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”
It’s Edebiri, we’re done here, moving on.
Comedy Series
- “Abbott Elementary”
- “The Bear”
- “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
- “Hacks”
- “Only Murders in the Building”
- “Palm Royale”
- “Reservation Dogs”
- “What We Do in the Shadows”
Remembering my caveat in the introduction — that the Comedy nominees are, generally speaking, much stronger than Drama (and even Limited Series) — it’s hard to go wrong in Best Comedy Series. There’s a decent pro and con for each pick. “Curb Your Enthusiasm” deserves to win for overall series before it’s done, even if the latest season wasn’t its absolute best. “Abbott Elementary” is pumping out more episodes, more consistently, to a broader audience than any other series on here, so we can forgive a few struggles with the romantic storyline. (Janine and Gregory’s will-they-won’t-they has been drawn out way too long, and Season 3 suffered as a result! I know no one agrees with me! I’m still right!) “Hacks,” “Reservation Dogs,” and “Only Murders in the Building” all may only be half-comedies (and halves of a generational drama, a coming-of-age drama, and a murder-mystery, respectively), but they’re all irresistible entertainment (and plenty funny). “The Bear” isn’t a comedy. “Palm Royale” didn’t work for many, but boy did it work for me, and that leaves “What We Do in the Shadows,” which I would vote for if it wasn’t the last season of “Reservation Dogs.” “Rez Dogs” has to win somewhere, and with only four total nominations, it can’t win much — so why not win big?