It wasn’t the best week … for Zac Jackson’s picks. Jon Greenberg didn’t do so hot, either. But they’re pros, so another week presents more opportunities for growth. And maybe more wins than losses.
GREENBERG (4-4 last week, 41-31 overall): How did you enjoy a standalone night of MACtion? I didn’t do much research on what to bet Tuesday, but I looked at my friend Dan “Big Cat” Katz’s tweet espousing three overs and decided to take two unders because he noted he’s ice cold.
Of course, I wound up splitting them. Taking under 55 in that 500-point Buffalo-Ball State game is a true “hindsight is 20/20” moment.
WMU/Bowling Green Over 57.5
Ball State/Buffalo Over 55
Toledo/CMU Over 52I’m ice cold. @Barstoolpickem
— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) November 12, 2024
Let’s get into Wednesday’s games because I know I’m going to be busy with a Browns-like disaster unfolding at Halas Hall.
The Bobcats’ line against visiting Eastern Michigan went up more than a point Tuesday. I don’t know what to make of the Eagles. They lost to Toledo by one point and Akron by four and are 7-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, Ohio is hot, winning their last two against Buffalo and Kent State by a combined 72 points.
In honor of how lazy I was in Athens, let’s go the easy route and take Ohio -11, over 51.5 and every senior over 1 1/2 shots at The C.I. As for the score, I’m feeling 38-20.
Across the state, the Golden Flashes are visiting bucolic Oxford and … yikes. A 30.5-point spread? As best I can tell, this is the first 30-point spread in MAC play since the end of the fake 2020 season when Akron was a 33-point ‘dog at Buffalo and lost 56-7.
Kent, of course, has lost five games by 30 or more points this season, including its last two games (41-0 to Ohio and 52-21 to Western Michigan). The program is winless and hopeless, but we don’t know who is starting at quarterback. If it’s walk-on freshman Ruel Tomlinson, YIKES. If it’s the other guy, slightly softer yikes.
The funniest thing is it’s a 30-point spread, but the total is 46.5. Does Miami blow them out 50-0? I won’t bet it until I have some certainty at QB, but for this exercise, I guess I’ll roll the dice and take under 47.5.
JACKSON (3-7, 34-38): First, I’d like to go ahead and continue to celebrate my preseason pick of Bowling Green over six wins. The Falcons are on six with two to go, and I’m also loaded with futures that involve BGSU both advancing to and winning the MAC title game.
Considering how last week went for me in this space, that’s all I have to celebrate. So we’re focusing on the positives here and really emptying the full list of coaching cliches. Too many distractions, but no excuses. One play at a time. One pick at a time.
Timing matters, too. I texted all of my friends yesterday that Ball State-Buffalo over 54 was a lock. I guess that says a lot about where we stand — and that we should have published this earlier.
One of my losses last week came because Kent State pulled a late surprise and started a walk-on freshman at quarterback. Unsurprisingly, Kent State did not score a point as part of its march to 0-12. My over lost miserably. I don’t know the status tonight, but I can assure you all that Kent State won’t score more than three offensive points unless Tommy Ulatowski is back.
It’s not a great MACtion slate Wednesday. I’m already looking at Saturday, where I think I love Kansas +3 at BYU. Add the moneyline, too. Kansas is a different team in recent weeks, and it’s time for reality to hit BYU in the form of an actual loss.
GREENBERG: Wow, thanks for the text on the Ball State-Buffalo game. But I do like that Kansas +3 pick. I didn’t see a lot that excited me on the college slate. So let’s stay local. How about Ohio State–Northwestern? A 28.5-point spread at neutral Wrigley Field? Too big for my tastes, but I’ll take over 44.5. If Northwestern can score 10 points, I’ll win. Anything I’m missing on Saturday?
JACKSON: I saw one this morning that I strongly recommend: An SEC team to win the national title at +120. I just don’t trust Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, and I’ll take my plus-money chances against Oregon.
As for this week, I like Colorado -11.5 vs. Utah. That line has been rising, probably because of Utah’s quarterback situation. Prime to the playoffs? It’s looking likely.
Charlotte +3 vs. a sinking South Florida team, and Temple -2.5 against a sunk Florida Atlantic team. Yes, Temple as a favorite. Let’s do it.
GREENBERG: You’re crazy for that one.
I bet against the Bengals last week because they were playing a good team, and that came back to bite me because they lost and covered. This week, I’ll go against Joe Burrow and Co. again, this time on the road on Sunday Night Football against Jim Harbaugh and his immaculate vibes club. Give me Chargers -1.5.
The Chiefs are 9-0, if you haven’t heard, but they haven’t covered the last three weeks. Then again, they were favorites by a touchdown or more each game. This time, they’re underdogs (+2.5 at Buffalo) for the second time this season. (They were 2-point underdogs and beat San Francisco 28-18 last month.) They were 2.5-point dogs against the Bulls last year in the AFC Championship and won by 3. I’ll roll with the Chiefs +2.5 again.
I think a lot of people are going with the Steelers +3 at home, but looking at BetMGM’s numbers, as of this writing, 56 percent of bettors are taking the Ravens. That makes me feel even better about Pittsburgh +3.
JACKSON: I think I finally won a couple of NFL picks last week. Trust me, I’m as surprised as the readers are.
I’ll take the Bills -2.5. I know Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is something like 49-0 (don’t check my math), but I think the Chiefs are well overdue for a loss. The Bills getting this one would set up a wild race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and that should matter.
Mike Tomlin is getting points in a home divisional game. He’s something like 499-2 ATS in that spot. (OK, he’s really 60-31-3, a still ridiculous 65.4 percent.) I think I’ll have to follow with Steelers +3. I’ll also hold my nose and take the Raiders +8 at Miami. The Raiders might be the league’s worst team, but Miami just played Monday night in Los Angeles, and the Raiders are off a bye with a new offensive staff. It should be close, shouldn’t it?
Don’t wait: Take the Browns +4.5 next Thursday vs. the Steelers, who will be off a wild win at Washington, then a blood and guts game vs. the Ravens, then into a short week road game. The Browns are terrible — I would know — but that’s too many points in that situation.
GREENBERG: We’re forgetting the game of the week: Our guy Zach Collaros is playing in his fifth straight Grey Cup and he’s facing Chad “Swag” Kelly and the Argonauts. Wait, check that, Nick Arbuckle and the Argonauts. Kelly broke his leg in Toronto’s CFL semi-final game. Not sure how swaggy Arbuckle is but it explains the big spread.
Winnipeg is hot right now (no one has ever typed that south of the border) and is a 9.5-point favorite. Both of their games (two close Toronto wins) this season were low-scoring but the total is 49.5. Here’s a possible explanation: The totals of the last four Grey Cups were 45, 58, 47 and 52. When the lights are bright in Canada, the points come out. (So do the Jonas Brothers, who are playing the halftime show.)
I’ll take Winnipeg to win by 1-6 points at +350 and live-bet … something, I’m sure. I should go home and watch at The Spot Bar. Let me ask my wife if she’s interested in that date night. Maybe Jason Kelce (Collaros’ center at Cincinnati) will be in Vancouver on Sunday … shirtless as usual.
JACKSON: Collaros covered a bunch of games for me in November … when he was the quarterback and safety at Steubenville High. I wish him continued success.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Josh Allen: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)