The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff didn’t offer much drama, and two of the quarterfinals could be more of the same, but there are two enticing matchups ahead. Georgia is barely favored against Notre Dame, and Ohio State is a small favorite against No. 1 Oregon.
The Georgia-Notre Dame game opened as a pick ’em, and the Buckeyes opened as 1.5-point favorites. College football fans may be skeptical of seeing any competitive games after four blowouts kicked off the CFP, but all four first-round games opened with spreads of more than a touchdown. Those games were even worse than the spreads indicated, but there isn’t a clear favorite playing at home in the quarterfinals.
However, two of the quarterfinals have significant spreads. Texas, the biggest favorite of the first round against Clemson (-13.5), is the biggest favorite of the quarterfinals. The Longhorns opened as 13.5-point favorites against Arizona State. Meanwhile, Penn State opened as a 10.5-point favorite against Boise State.
Will we see more competitive games in the CFP quarterfinals?
Here’s a deeper look at all four first-round games, including viewing info and picks against the spread. All four games are on ESPN, with one on New Year’s Eve and three on New Year’s Day.
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
College football doesn’t have Cinderella teams like college basketball, but if there were one, it would be Boise State. The Broncos have been a top program from outside the power conferences for more than 20 years. Boise State will have a chance to play Cinderella in a CFP quarterfinal against Penn State, where the Broncos are double-digit underdogs.
Boise State is 12-1 and has a pair of top-25 wins against UNLV, but arguably the best result on the Broncos’ resume is a 37-34 loss in Week 2 at No. 1 Oregon. At that time, Oregon had some early-season questions to answer after a close win against Idaho, of all teams, and Ashton Jeanty’s star hadn’t quite risen on the national level outside of NFL Draft heads. Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries against the Ducks.
Boise outgained Oregon 369-352 in a performance that has aged like fine wine. The Ducks had a punt-return touchdown and a kickoff-return touchdown in the second half and still needed a last-second field goal to win.
Their performance is relevant because Penn State also played the Ducks. The Nittany Lions’ meeting with Oregon was much more recent, in the Big Ten title game. Oregon led by as many as 18 points and mostly kept PSU safely at arm’s length in a 45-37 win, but Penn State also outgained the Ducks 523-469. Oregon looks like a different team than when it played the Broncos, but Penn State and Boise State performed similarly against the same opponent.
Under James Franklin, Penn State has a reputation for losing the big games. The Nittany Lions’ two losses this year are against the two premier teams on their schedule (Oregon and Ohio State). A 38-10 win against SMU in the first round was impressive but doesn’t shake the stigma; neither would a win against Boise State. A semifinal victory against Georgia or Notre Dame? Yeah, that would do it.
For Boise State, years of being the best program outside the power conference have finally culminated in a chance to play for the national title. Undefeated seasons in 2006 and 2009 ended with Fiesta Bowl wins but came before the four-team Playoff. This season is Boise’s 10th with 12 wins since 2002.
If Boise is to go any further in the CFP, it will likely be on the back of Jeanty, whose 2,497 rushing yards put him 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders’ single-season record. Penn State is seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed (100.4 per game), so Jeanty will have to earn it.
Picks against the spread
No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas
Peach Bowl: Wednesday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
When fans and analysts examined the format of the new 12-team Playoff, they identified that the No. 5 seed could have an easier path to the semifinals than the top two seeds — and that’s been the case. No. 5 Texas was the biggest favorite of the first round and is also the biggest favorite of the quarterfinals.
The thinking behind the No. 5 path being easy is that the No. 12 seed would likely be a conference champion outside the top 12 teams in the rankings and get in via an automatic bid. That turned out to be true, although Clemson didn’t fit the profile of a team people envisioned. The Tigers gave Texas the most competitive game of the CFP first round, which isn’t saying much. The Longhorns still covered a 13.5-point spread.
Now, the Longhorns get Arizona State, the lowest-ranked conference champion to receive a bye. The Sun Devils finished 12th in the final CFP rankings. Texas can get to the semifinals by beating No. 16 at home and No. 12 on a neutral field.
If ASU is to pull off the upset, it will likely be on the back of running back Cam Skattebo. The former Sacramento State standout has become a cult hero at Arizona State, eventually gaining enough prominence to finish fifth in Heisman Trophy voting. He’s the kind of running back you want Chris Berman to call highlights for so you can hear his sound effects for Skattebo’s physical running style.
Skattebo has 1,568 rushing yards and another 506 receiving yards this season. Only Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has more total yards from scrimmage.
While ASU typically pulls out all the stops to get its star the ball, Texas’ elite defense won’t make it easy for him. The Longhorns have the second-best scoring defense in the country (13.3 points allowed per game) and are 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.5).
That said, Clemson gained more than 400 yards against Texas and could’ve made things interesting late, if not for a goalline stand in the fourth quarter. The stars of the game were Texas’ running backs Jaydon Blue (146 yards, two touchdowns on 14 carries) and Quintrevion Wisner (110 yards, two touchdowns on 15 carries). Whichever team wins the running game may win.
Picks against the spread
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Wednesday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Rose Bowl won’t get a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 anymore, but this Midwest vs. West Coast meeting in the CFP quarterfinal has a similar spirit. The Buckeyes lost the first time these new Big Ten foes met but are favored for the rematch in Pasadena.
Oregon is the lone remaining undefeated team in the country and beat OSU 32-31 in a nailbiter on Oct. 12 in Eugene. This game will be on a neutral field. If the rematch is as exciting as the first contest, it could help college football fans overcome the malaise created by uninteresting first-round games.
There were questions about Ohio State after an inexplicable home loss to Michigan closed its regular season. In previous years, that would have knocked the Buckeyes out of CFP contention, but this year, it just cost them a spot in the Big Ten title game. Coach Ryan Day was firmly on the hot seat going into OSU’s first-round game against Tennessee, and his team responded by producing arguably the best Ohio State performance in the past couple of seasons.
If the Buckeyes play as they did against Tennessee — a 42-17 romp that felt over in the first quarter and was definitively decided before the end of the third — they are capable of beating Oregon. The Ducks haven’t been tested much since that game. Oregon had a 16-13 clunker at Wisconsin but hasn’t had any other close games in the second half of the season. Even the Big Ten title game against Penn State was only somewhat close.
The first time these teams played, both looked the part of talented (and expensive) rosters capable of winning a national title. OSU’s Will Howard and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel completed more than two-thirds of their passes, passed for two touchdowns and more than 300 yards and didn’t throw an interception. OSU’s TreVeyon Henderson and Oregon’s Jordan James had solid games on the ground. The game’s top receivers, Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka for OSU and Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson for Oregon, had several catches and a touchdown each.
All the stars showed up. How will the coaching staffs adjust in the rematch?
The Buckeyes lead the head-to-head series 9-2, winning the first nine meetings but losing the last two. Oregon also won in Columbus in 2021. These teams met in the Rose Bowl twice, in 1958 and 2010, with OSU winning both. Their last postseason meeting was in the 2015 national title game in AT&T Stadium, a 42-20 OSU win.
Picks against the spread
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: Wednesday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
It’s fitting that the Georgia vs. Notre Dame game will get primetime treatment on New Year’s Day because it’s probably the most exciting matchup on paper. Although this contest opened as a pick ’em, the Bulldogs have become a small favorite.
The last two times out, the Bulldogs needed overtime to beat Georgia Tech and Texas (in the SEC title game) but watched on TV as Notre Dame smushed Indiana in the first-round opener. The Fighting Irish won 27-17 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score, but they lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills to injury. Mills has been a key cog in a Notre Dame defense that ranks third in the country in points allowed per game (13.8).
Indiana managed just 278 yards of offense, 126 of which came on its last two drives when the game was already decided. Can Notre Dame deliver a similar performance against Georgia?
Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck has four multi-interception games this season, although he hasn’t thrown a pick in his last four games, which includes games against Tennessee and Texas. That said, the last time we saw Beck, he got hurt against the Longhorns and led the Bulldogs to just three points in the first half. Backup Gunner Stockton led Georgia to a touchdown on his first drive and helped the Bulldogs win the SEC. There is no indication that Stockton will start this game, but Beck’s struggles this season have created some doubt, especially if the Bulldogs’ offense stalls again.
Mills’ injury could be a big deal. Losing a standout on the interior defensive line when Georgia is getting healthy at running back is not ideal. Georgia running backs Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier missed time due to injury this season but combined for 141 yards and 22 carries against Texas.
Even without Mills, Notre Dame’s defense should be an elite unit. Pair that with Notre Dame’s desire and ability to take the life out of games with its running attack, and it’s no surprise that this game has the lowest listed point total of the four quarterfinals.
Georgia has won all three meetings between these teams: the 1981 Sugar Bowl and a home-and-home series in 2017 and 2019. All three games were decided by one score.
Picks against the spread
(Photo of Barryn Sorrell: Jack Gorman / Getty Images)