KANSAS CITY — The first move for the Chicago Cubs before the trade deadline came as a bit of a surprise, as a team many view as obvious sellers added reliever Nate Pearson to their bullpen from the Toronto Blue Jays for a pair of prospects. But it was a deal that made sense for a team still looking for ways to improve for 2025. Adding Pearson, a former top prospect with nasty stuff and a high upside who is under control for two more seasons beyond this one, fits the plan.
But this shouldn’t be read as the Cubs are shifting gears. The Cubs aren’t going to take a big step back. Team president Jed Hoyer tried to make that clear when speaking to the media last Monday. He’s not looking to add if it means helping just for 2024. Beyond that, it makes sense to try and upgrade the roster for 2025. Hoyer has to feel pressure to try and win next season and he may as well begin that process as soon as possible.
The reality is, more changes are coming. Saturday’s scoring outburst in a 9-4 win over the Kansas City Royals aside, the Cubs continue to show with their play that this group isn’t good enough to invest in at the deadline. So trading away players makes sense. And while the first move was an incoming arm for the bullpen, the expectation around the league is that more will be exiting from the Cubs’ current relief corps.
“Right now (the front office does) their work and we figure out what’s going on,” manager Craig Counsell said. “The deadline means there’s going to be transactions. I don’t know where they’re going to come from, what part of the team they’re going to be on, or whether we’re going to add or subtract. The first one is an add. We’ll see where it goes from here.”
While Counsell isn’t tipping his hand, sources have indicated that while the Cubs are listening about almost anyone, there is a focus on relievers. The Cubs have surprised onlookers before when they traded Scott Effross at the 2022 deadline even though he still had five more years of control left at the time. But they felt the return of Hayden Wesneski was worth the move.
With all that in mind, here are four names who are most frequently being brought up by contending teams as they look to pry away relievers from Chicago.
Merely as a lefty, Smyly is going to be valued on the trade market. Add in that he has a 2.79 ERA and over a decade of experience in the big leagues and it makes sense why teams would be interested. Smyly has pitched in three different postseasons over his career, including the Atlanta Braves’ World Series run in 2021.
A former starter, Smyly has gotten four or more outs in 17 of his 28 appearances this season. Smyly has been especially stout since the start of June with a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings.
He has his warts, of course. Smyly doesn’t miss many bats, striking out batters at a mere 20.2 percent rate this season, which would be the worst of his career. His walk rate is also a bit elevated this season, nearly pushing 10 percent. And despite being a lefty, Smyly is a reverse-split guy, getting better numbers against righties than lefties — though he’s been strong against both this season, particularly limiting the slug against left-handed hitters.
Smyly has a unique curveball that allows him to miss barrels (a 5.4 percent barrel rate against the pitch is the lowest of his career) and the type of experience teams like to add to their bullpens at the deadline. The cost shouldn’t be too high — though the Cubs aren’t in the business of giving players away — and that he’s a free agent at the end of the year makes it all the more likely he’s moved.
Héctor Neris has 14 saves to go along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.53 rate on walks and hits per innings pitched. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
Neris started the season by getting out of self-created jams regularly and eventually, his high walk rate caught up to him. A stretch in late May and into June where he allowed a 9.35 ERA and gave up three of the four home runs he’s allowed this season was particularly brutal. But Neris has followed it up with some of his best pitching.
In his past 11 outings, Neris has a 0.90 ERA with a 34.1 percent strikeout rate. The walks are still elevated at 9.8 percent, but that’s perfectly acceptable if he’s missing bats at that clip. Scouts who have watched Neris recently have pointed out that his splitter is once again looking nasty but his fastball appears to be very hittable.
Neris is a leader in the bullpen and has postseason experience, winning a World Series with the Houston Astros in 2022. He’s the type of pitcher who will take the ball without a second thought, knowing that availability is one of the most important aspects of being a reliever.
But his contract does complicate matters. If Neris reaches 60 appearances this season — he’s at 39 — his $9 million team option converts into a player option. There are ways around this as the Cubs could conditionally add money to the trade should Neris reach the 60-appearance mark to ensure they get a solid prospect. But it’s an impediment teams are aware of.
The Cubs won’t let Leiter go for cheap. Those who point to his 4.37 ERA are missing how brilliant he’s been this season. Leiter is striking out 34.5 percent of the batters he’s faced and walked just 8.8 percent with an impressive 51.8 percent ground-ball rate.
His elevated ERA is due to a stretch of 12 appearances from May 25 to June 19 in which he posted a 15.58 ERA but seemingly had every bit of bad luck he could get. His ground-ball rate was above 55 percent during that stretch, his hard contact rate was below 20 percent and he was striking out batters at a strong rate. But he had a .462 batting average on balls in play with an insanely low 21.5 percent left-on-base rate and it led to poor results.
Scouts who have dug in on that stretch believe the pitcher they’ve seen since he returned from the injured list on July 9 is the real Leiter. That’s the one who hasn’t allowed a walk, a run or a hit while striking out 12 of the 19 batters he’s faced. He’s been utterly dominant. And the asking price is high.
The argument for keeping Leiter is that the team wants to win next season and by moving him — he’s under control for two more seasons beyond 2024 — they’d need to find a high-leverage reliever who they can trust against lefties. Not an easy task. But he’s also 33 and relievers are volatile. This could be a sell-high moment for the Cubs as they look to reload for 2025.
Teams are interested in Merryweather because he has nasty stuff and had an impressive season in 2023. He’s missed much of the year and only just returned. The results haven’t been perfect as he’s faced 10 batters and allowed four hits while striking out two and walking just one.
Merryweather is still pumping upper-90s heat with a wipeout slider. But like Leiter, he’s under control for two more seasons. The question becomes: Will teams give up a quality piece for Merryweather or will they try and turn this into a buy-low situation? If it’s the latter, the Cubs may not be interested.
If he can prove he’s healthy, the sell becomes that he has a lively arm that can handle high-leverage moments and hasn’t had a heavy workload this season. It seems unlikely that the Cubs would just dump Merryweather, but if a team meets their price, they’ve shown they won’t be hesitant to part with anyone on their roster.
(Top photo of Nate Pearson: Duane Burleson / Getty Images)