At lunchtime Tuesday, Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer said, “We’re not done,” looking forward to building around Kyle Tucker, the biggest acquisition during his time as the club’s head of baseball operations. Within hours, the Cubs traded former MVP Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees.
This winter, Hoyer’s front office isn’t stalling.
Maximizing Tucker’s final season before he can become a free agent is a priority. That urgency could ultimately lead the Cubs to offer him the largest contract in franchise history and the chance to finish his career at Wrigley Field. But after executing a series of deals, the Cubs are more focused on the immediate ramifications.
More money will go to Cubs pitching staff
The underwhelming return in the Bellinger trade cannot be fully evaluated until we see how the Cubs reallocate their resources and where their major-league payroll ends up next season.
The Cubs received Cody Poteet, a 30-year-old right-hander with 24 major-league appearances on his resume, and kicked in $5 million to cover part of Bellinger’s salary. Bellinger could earn $32.5 million in 2025 if he opts out of his contract after the season. Hoyer is obsessed with depth, but he felt that money could be better spent elsewhere.
The Cubs are already covered at Bellinger’s primary positions (first base/outfield), and Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have full no-trade clauses. Tucker takes over as the new Gold Glove right fielder at Wrigley Field. Suzuki now profiles as a regular designated hitter, a role that apparently is not his preference, so this could still get awkward.
The Cubs’ current estimated luxury-tax payroll is nearly $192 million, according to FanGraphs, though it’s unclear how close the budget for baseball operations will come to the $241 million threshold. Trading Bellinger creates more flexibility to add another starting pitcher and explore a bullpen market that has been much slower to develop.
Cubs first baseman Michael Busch isn’t going anywhere for now. (Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
Moving Bellinger further solidifies the Cubs’ commitment to Michael Busch, whose strong rookie season was worth 2.8 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference. The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Busch for prospects last winter because he couldn’t get consistent at-bats on that star-studded team. Busch played multiple positions at the University of North Carolina and in the Dodgers’ farm system, but the Cubs don’t plan to have him bounce around the infield.
“We really see Michael as a Gold Glove first baseman,” Hoyer said. “That’s our focus. Can he move around a little bit? Of course, his versatility is great. But he made real strides at first. After the first month of the season, he was fantastic at first. And that’s certainly how we’re seeing him.”
Matt Shaw has the inside track at third base
Top Cubs prospect Matt Shaw is emerging as a winner in the aftermath of the Tucker deal. With Isaac Paredes traded to the Houston Astros, the Cubs now have an opening at third base. There will be some form of competition, but the Cubs expect Shaw to make another leap.
“We’re going to give him a long look at third,” Hoyer said. “Making room for young players is really important. He has to earn that job. I’m not going to gift him that job on a conference call in the middle of December. But certainly with what he’s done in the minor leagues since we’ve had him, his arrow is really pointing up.”
Shaw was the No. 13 pick in the 2023 draft out of the University of Maryland. Since then, he’s posted a .906 OPS across 159 games at four different affiliates. Cubs manager Craig Counsell has shown a good feel for developing young talent, going back to his time with the Milwaukee Brewers, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is a good example of how the team could proceed.
“Just like we did last year with PCA, you’ve got to give young players some runway,” Hoyer said. “Obviously, it’s not always linear, as we’ve talked about. But certainly you’ve got to give at-bats to talented young players. And Matt has certainly put himself in position to be considered for something like that.”
The farm system is available for more trades
Even after trading Cam Smith to the Astros, the Cubs still have seven prospects on MLB.com’s top 100. Owen Caissie (No. 34) and James Triantos (No. 55) are two names that have been mentioned prominently in trade rumors.
Though Hoyer is entering his own contract year, and operating at a different speed than the previous offseason, it would be out of character for him to completely empty the farm system. He’s a seasoned, deliberate executive who takes the long-term view.
Under Hoyer’s leadership, the Cubs have also leaned harder into an analytics-based model to evaluate players. The “Ivy” database may present valuations that lead to different ideas for how to construct a 90-win team on paper.
The Cubs have been in talks with the Miami Marlins about Jesús Luzardo, a talented left-handed pitcher who comes with an extensive medical history and two more seasons of club control.
“Everything is a one-off decision,” Hoyer said. “Does this make us better now? What is this doing for the future? That’s a constant balance. I don’t think you do one deal and say that prohibits a bunch of other deals. But everything is done in concert. You have to figure all those things out and make that determination. The goal is to be a better team next year. But certainly the goal isn’t to be good only next year.”
(Top photo of Cody Poteet: Denny Medley / Imagn Images)