Some games shape entire seasons and, for both England and Australia, another one is looming. Nail the Wallabies convincingly and the home side will believe their fortunes are finally reviving. Permit the visitors a morale enhancing first win in south-west London since the 2015 Rugby World Cup, on the other hand, and the horizon will darken swiftly.
England have already lost five of their past seven internationals dating back to Murrayfield in February. Next week the current world champions are due at Twickenham and, after a brief subsequent reunion with Eddie Jones’s Japan, the first two rounds of next year’s Six Nations championship pit Steve Borthwick’s team against, respectively, Ireland and France.
There will be limited room for PR manoeuvring, in short, if the Wallabies confound expectations and floor England with the type of golden shot not seen in these parts since a flying Matt Giteau was cementing a 33-12 win and the host nation’s pool exit at their own tournament nine years ago. This has not been a great week for pollsters and supposedly well informed political pundits but the bookies are giving Australia a 12-point start.
For that comfortingly familiar script to be rolled out, though, England must banish the frustration of last weekend’s narrow loss to New Zealand and find more ways to turn perspiration and potential into points. For all the talk of near misses against the All Blacks, the fact of the matter remains that their opponents scored three tries to one and could easily have had three more.
Just as pertinent was that Ollie Lawrence, supposedly the focal point of England’s midfield attack, made only two carries all day. The Bath centre, who wears 13 on his back on Saturday, did make an impressive 27 tackles but there were echoes of the bad old days when Jeremy Guscott, one of the greatest centres of all time, spent large chunks of his international career twiddling his attacking thumbs.
The difference then was that England had an all-conquering pack whose reputation alone caused opponents to shrink. For all sorts of reasons that is no longer the perception. The bench has been so lacking in turbo thrust lately that Borthwick’s side have managed only three points in the final half-hours of their most recent three games combined, a telling stat indeed.
This, then, is England’s big chance to shake off their All Blacks frustration, rediscover the best version of themselves and produce the sort of rugby they and their supporters are craving. That does not necessarily mean wide-wide attack for 80 minutes but, rather, the intelligent variations, smart angles of running and energetic support visible fleetingly last Saturday.
Hand in glove with that, of course, will need to be discipline, set-piece solidity and breakdown efficiency, upon which so much else is stacked. England have certainly improved in terms of the first of those requirements but gone are the days when the Wallabies’ retreating scrum made Australia’s now-retired Olympic breakdancer Raygun look positively elegant.
Now it has improved to the point where the Wallabies coach, Joe Schmidt, can pick reserve props James Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa, with 216 caps between them; clearly there is a desire to compound England’s last-quarter hesitancy. Schmidt’s Australia also have a narrow three-point defeat to the All Blacks on their recent CV and picking the uber-talented Joseph Sua’ali’i to make his competitive union debut at Twickenham is hardly the act of a coach who wants his team to shut up shop.
Perversely given England’s last-quarter travails, therefore, the first 50 minutes could be the game’s defining period. Australia have nothing much to lose and everything to gain from fronting up physically, making life awkward at the breakdown through the excellent Fraser McReight and giving Sua’ali’i the chance to unveil himself as the new Israel Folau and Sonny-Bill Williams combined. As Jason Robinson suggested this week, the best players find ways of coping even when they are thrown into the deep end of a crocodile-infested lake.
Whether Sua’ali’i sinks or swims is also relevant because of the pressing need for Australia to be competitive when they host next year’s British & Irish Lions tour and the 2027 World Cup. If they complete this month’s tour having lost to England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland individually it will be that much harder to convince everybody, not least themselves, that a remarkable “boilover” may yet await in their own backyard.
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There are the small matters, too, of heritage and continuing box office magnetism. It is now 40 years, incredibly, since the Mark Ella, David Campese and co showed the entire world how to play the game on their barnstorming European tour of 1984. Feast on the YouTube footage and quietly ask yourself whether the defensive improvements in the modern game have universally enhanced the viewing experience.
What Australia would now give for players of such world-class calibre. Ella, by the way, is still fascinating to talk to about rugby, not least on the subject of fly-halves being granted licence to mould the game as they see fit. “The No 10 is like the quarterback, he’s the one who’ll dictate,” Ella said when we met a couple of years ago, recounting how he knocked on the Wallaby coach Alan Jones’s door to demand full tactical control in order to maximise the squad’s chances of an historic tour clean sweep.
It is a quote that could well resonate with, among others, Marcus Smith. It seems ridiculous that some still suck their teeth about Smith’s obvious playmaking ability but, equally, this is precisely the kind of game in which England need their fly-half to be insightful as well as instinctive. Taking the best available options, landing those little cross-kicks just so and bringing the best out of those around him are just as vital skills as the occasional defence splitting break.
So no pressure, then, at this pivotal stage of the Autumn Nations Series. The aforementioned Robinson, for one, is keen to see the home side “take the shackles off” and really express themselves. “Last week they didn’t get the win but I don’t think England were as bad as everyone is making out,” the World Cup winner said in midweek. “It’s just being able to do it in the most intense games … they are not far off from where they need to be.”
Losing at home to the world’s ninth-ranked team, however, really would represent a significant step backwards.