As we noted in our race preview, this is the third straight year Verstappen has started off the front row at Spa despite setting the fastest time in qualifying. Last year, he started P6 and won easily. This year, he’s got much more of a fight in hand, and not just because he started P11.
The field is just so much closer that put the Red Bull in the back half of the grid presents a proper obstacle rather than a temporary annoyance. Verstappen doesn’t just have to get to the front of the field, he has to fight off Hamilton, Leclerc, Piastri, Norris and others — all of whom have realistic shots at the win — if he wants to reach the top of the podium.