LUSAIL, Qatar — One week after clinching his fourth Formula One world championship in Las Vegas, Max Verstappen reminded his rivals why he is so hard to beat.
After toiling to eighth place in the Qatar sprint race earlier in the day, unable to even catch the Haas of Nico Hülkenberg, Verstappen roared back in qualifying by taking his first pole position since the Austrian Grand Prix in June.
But three hours after the conclusion of qualifying, the stewards announced that Verstappen had received a one-place grid penalty for driving unnecessarily on a cool-down in qualifying, dropping him to P2 and giving pole to George Russell.
Both Russell and Verstappen managed to leapfrog the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who, after sealing a 1-2 finish in the sprint, would surely have been giving thought to a potential constructors’ championship victory in Qatar.
McLaren needs to outscore Ferrari by 15 points on Sunday to secure its first teams’ title since 1998, making the grid spots from third to seventh — Lewis Hamilton is the interloper in the second Mercedes — important to follow when the lights go out.
This year’s Qatar race promises to be very different from 2023 when skyrocketing temperatures and limited stint lengths led to one of the most physically challenging events in F1 history.
If anything, the weekend thus far has felt cool due to the breezy conditions, which, combined with no repeat of last year’s tire issues, should make for a more ‘normal’ race, even if Qatar’s high-speed layout will put a toll on the drivers’ bodies.
Here are the key storylines to watch out for in Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix.
What’s at stake for McLaren?
By this time tomorrow, McLaren could be celebrating its first constructors’ championship in almost three decades.
It’s been a long title drought for the Woking-based team, and that same year, Mika Häkkinen and David Coulthard led the team to victory over Ferrari. But to secure the title in Qatar, McLaren would need a 45-point lead over second-place Ferrari. It entered the weekend with a 24-point lead, and with a 1-2 finish in the sprint race, Piastri and Norris extended the gap to 30 points. McLaren needs to outscore Ferrari by 15 points in the Qatar Grand Prix, or else the battle will rage on to the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
Piastri and Norris already have an edge over Ferrari’s duo. They may not have continued the fast pace from earlier on Saturday, but they secured a McLaren second-row lockout while Leclerc will line up in P5 and Sainz in P7, split by Hamilton.
Q3 wasn’t particularly smooth for Norris, who really was in charge of the sprint race. The Briton said he made a mistake on his first push lap, dipping his wheel into the gravel. He ended up in dirty air, and it wasn’t a stellar lap. Though, as he pointed out, it was his “first mistake really of all of the qualifying and the whole weekend so far.” The second push lap of Q3 was one he felt “pretty happy” about as “I feel like I got everything out of it.”
Piastri echoed a similar feeling. “I was happy with the lap that I did. I don’t think there was much left on the table at all.”
One big push to come on Sunday! 🙌#QatarGP 🇶🇦 pic.twitter.com/OjOsj3ZCUc
— McLaren (@McLarenF1) November 30, 2024
There have been a number of weekends recently where McLaren was the fastest car, but Norris does not believe that is the case in Qatar.
“I think the clean air that I had earlier today made us look probably a bit better than we were. I don’t think we’ve necessarily been the quickest, to be honest, this weekend – I think Mercedes have, so (I’m) expecting a tough battle and excited to see what we can do,” he said. “I would like to give the guys ahead a little battle tomorrow and, of course, go forward. Our target would be to try and win the race, but these two guys (are) probably going to make my life pretty tough tomorrow.”
Piastri acknowledged one of this track’s unique elements: “Whatever your qualifying pace is is pretty much your race pace as well because of the nature of the track and how much you can push.” The best way to take care of the battle with Ferrari, though, is to win, he said.
Why Ferrari needs to overperform on Sunday
Ferrari always anticipated struggling in Qatar against McLaren, given how the high-speed layout would suit the papaya cars. The 1-2 finish for Piastri and Norris in the sprint seemed to confirm those fears, turning the screw on Ferrari in the constructors’ fight.
McLaren remained a step ahead of Ferrari through qualifying, but the step forward from Verstappen and Russell limited Norris and Piastri to the second row. If the cars finish tomorrow in the same positions as they qualified, then Ferrari will keep the title fight alive to Abu Dhabi.
But Charles Leclerc, the lead Ferrari in P5, knew the team needed more to seriously stand a chance of the championship. “If we want to win the constructors’, we’ve got to finish in front this weekend,” Leclerc said. “We cannot afford to just take the points available. We need to overperform in order to target the constructors. Tomorrow, we’ve got to do something special in order to gain some points on them.”
Leclerc admitted that Ferrari was closer to McLaren than expected in Qatar, giving him and teammate Carlos Sainz some hope they could get in the fight. The difficulty in overtaking at the Lusail track will make a good start vital, but the surprise surge from Red Bull and Mercedes might actually help Ferrari.
“It depends (on) the way you see it,” Leclerc said. “Because if tomorrow we overtake (the McLarens) at the start, then I wish the two in front were not there. If we stay behind at the start, then I’m happy if they can keep the first and second place.”
Ferrari knows the odds are stacked against it in the constructors’ race. But there’ll be a sliver of added hope post-qualifying compared to post-sprint when it did look like McLaren could sweep the weekend and wrap things up in dominant fashion.
Max Verstappen and George Russell talk after qualifying for the Qatar GP on November 30, 2024. (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)
Can Verstappen cap off Red Bull’s surprise turnaround?
It’s rare to hear Verstappen celebrate a pole position with quite as much vigor as he did on Saturday night in Qatar. Given that he opened the year with seven poles in a row and had already clinched the championship, the result may not seem like a big deal.
But it was clear from his expletive-filled radio call back to the Red Bull pit wall just how much it meant to Verstappen. After struggling through the sprint race, losing places on the opening lap due to snaps of oversteer and then limping home in eighth place for a solitary point, Verstappen was not expected to be a factor in the fight for pole.
Until he was. Red Bull made a series of changes to the setup of its RB20 car in response to the sprint race stuggles, believing it could unlock more pace, but it also required Verstappen to turn in the kind of impressive performance that has made him a four-time world champion. “Honestly, I didn’t expect that,” Verstappen admitted after qualifying, even joking that “a miracle happened” for him to (temporarily) get pole.
The added stability that Verstappen felt with his car, which he described as more “connected,” allowed him to really throw it into the high-speed corners. Verstappen has been trying to combat balance issues with his car for much of this year. Even if the title is already wrapped up, learning how to cure those problems will be valuable for next year.
You have to go back to the Spanish Grand Prix in June for the last time that Verstappen won a race in the dry (he executed his comeback from 17th on the grid in Brazil in the wet). While there’ll be obvious pressure from Mercedes, McLaren and potentially even Ferrari in Qatar, and an extra place to make up after his penalty, the Dutchman will know this is an excellent chance to give a late, unexpected confidence boost to his latest championship year.
He admitted the long-run pace of the Red Bull was “still a bit of a question mark,” given how much he struggled in the sprint. “This is great, to be on pole, but I’m not sure yet if it’s going to be enough to really be the outright fastest,” Verstappen said. “We’ll find out tomorrow.”
Russell leads Mercedes’ bid for back-to-back wins
At the end of a season that increasingly looked like a write-off for Mercedes as it dwindled toward its lowest constructors’ championship finish since 2012, this final triple-header has become increasingly fruitful.
Russell qualified P2 for the sprint and finished third, believing he only failed to beat Piastri thanks to McLaren’s team DRS tactics. He kept up the impressive pace by grabbing second place on the grid for Sunday’s grand prix before his late promotion to P1, giving him back-to-back pole positions.
Mercedes’ pace in Qatar is not a total shock. The W15 car has always performed better in cooler conditions and on a smoother track, as the 1-2 proved last week in Las Vegas, setting things up nicely for Russell.
“It’s just great to be in this groove at the moment for front row starts, which has been really pleasing considering where we were three or four races ago,” Russell said. “The race pace this morning looked great. Max did a great job. Red Bull seemed to turn it around a little bit since yesterday, but let’s see what tomorrow brings.”
Teammate Hamilton has endured a tougher time lately and again trailed Russell by half a second in qualifying as he slipped to P6. Hamilton said after sprint qualifying on Friday that he was “definitely not fast anymore,” but after qualifying, he appeared to hook that assertion more on his car not responding as he wanted, saying: “I know I’ve still got it.”
Russell anticipates a close fight against Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren in Qatar, but Mercedes has every reason to feel confident off the back of its Vegas success.
Nico Hülkenberg leads Pierre Gasly during the sprint ahead of the Qatar GP on November 30, 2024. (Joe Portlock/Getty Images)
The battle for P6 in the constructors’ championship heats up
All eyes may be on the battle between McLaren and Ferrari, but the tighter fight is at P6, where six points cover Haas, Alpine and RB after the sprint race. Out of that group, Haas’ Kevin Magnussen was the only driver to advance to Q3, qualifying 10th. But it is a prime spot because DRS trains can easily form. Alpine’s Pierre Gasly, though, isn’t far off after qualifying 11th, just 0.012 seconds from the cutoff.
It’ll come down to who has the stronger long-run pace. Haas’ was notable during the sprint race, with Hülkenberg scoring two points, but Magnussen noted to F1 TV that Gasly’s race pace was quick as well.
On Friday, RB team boss Laurent Mekies described it as “a crazy intense battle.”
“Of course, it gets a bit less interest compared to what’s happening at the very top. But to have three teams after 22 races separated by four points, it’s very much, you work all these years as mechanics, as engineers, as staff to be involved in this sort of battle. That’s why you love the sport,” Mekies continued. “So I think it’s great for the team to be part of that. It’s pushing us to improve. It’s pushing us to learn, sometimes in a hard way. But it’s a great battle to be involved in.”
The P6 battle likely won’t be decided in Qatar, but it shows the improvement rate and notable car development trajectory from all three teams. They’ve had their difficult spells and standout moments — some bigger than others, like Alpine’s double podium in Brazil.
“We all have a car that is able to produce a top 10,” Mekies said. “So, you know, everybody has been trying to develop their cars throughout the whole seasons, and the fact that at the very end of that, we have a car that is able to fight for P10 is a good sign.
“So I don’t know how it will finish in Abu Dhabi, but for sure, in terms of the team growing through that battle, it was extremely helpful.”
Top photos of Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris: SIPA USA