Plenty is being made of the Bulldogs’ title chances heading into the finals. The fundamental reason behind the chatter is the defensive resilience that Cameron Ciraldo’s team is displaying; holding teams to low scores most weeks and giving up an average of just 16 points across 21 matches.
Whilst there is plenty to work on at the kennel in terms of attack and being able to put teams away more emphatically (currently the Dogs sit ninth in points scored) the blue and whites work on the other side of the ball has been consistently impressive.
But as many good judges talk up Canterbury’s chances in a finals series that has two clear favourites heading into it, the question of whether their stubborn defence will be enough to blunt the sharp attacks of the Panthers, Storm and Roosters is a interesting one.
The possibility had me wondering about the for and against metric, the modern history of the game and just how reliable that data was when it came to successfully predicted grand final participants and premiership winners.
So I crunched the numbers across the last 20 seasons, including the tarnished achievements of the Storm during that timeline and what came up was an interesting reality and obvious trend.
Between 2004 and 2023, the team conceding the fewest points during the home and away season went on to win the premiership 11 times. For all their attacking prowess, organisation and power, the Panthers have been top of the pops four years running in that metric.
The Roosters, Storm, Dragons, Bunnies and Broncos also managed the feat. Whilst 11 from 20 might not be totally convincing from a statistical perspective, a deeper dive begins to paint a more compelling picture. Of the remaining nine premiers, five had been the second best defensive team across the season when it came to points conceded.
Penrith’s defence is unrivalled in the modern era. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
Additionally, the Bulldogs of 2004 and Sharks of 2016 were third ranked. That leaves just two outliers, the Tigers of 2005 and the amazing Benji-inspired run they put together in claiming a shock title that few saw coming, and the Cowboys of 2015, who were the fifth best defensive unit during the home and away season.
Thus, 18 of the last 20 premiers have been ranked in the top three defensively; playing a more reliable game than the Tigers did in ’05 and the Cowboys appear to be playing in 2024. North Queensland is scoring heavily and conceding often, with 532 points against belying their current seventh spot on the ladder.
So does the statistic stack up more broadly across the period in question? It does.
Of the nine occasions where the best performed defensive team didn’t manage to triumph on the final day of the season, how did their season’s end?
In 2020, Penrith were runners-up to the Storm, a year earlier Melbourne lost to the eventual premiers, the Roosters, in a preliminary final and after conceding just 302 points in the home and away season in 2016, the Storm also finished runner-up to the Sharks on the big day.
In fact, our league minds must travel all the way back to 2015 to find the last occasion that a top-ranked defensive team failed to appear in the decider. That year the Roosters conceded just 300 points yet lost out to the Broncos in a preliminary final.
The data seems encouraging for the Dogs. Top the defensive stats and play in a grand final, of course, if only it were that simple. Perhaps it is.
From 2012-14 the best performing defensive teams not only appeared in the final NRL match of the year but won it. The Storm, Roosters and Bunnies had dominant seasons, yet as the top-ranked defensive unit, Melbourne missed out on grand final day in 2011, losing to New Zealand a week earlier; the second team to miss the big dance since that season.
The Dragons defended better than anyone in 2009, except when it mattered the most and are another outlier when it comes to failing to advance to the grand final. They certainly made amends in 2010, again defending supremely and this time also winning the trophy.
Melbourne’s humbling 40-0 loss to Manly in the 2008 GF saw the league’s best defensive unit completely destroyed in a stunning result, yet in 2006 and 2007, defensive excellence was rewarded again, with grand final wins for the top ranked Broncos and Storm respectively.
The only other exception to be found to the rule is the Eels of 2005; crumbling 29-0 to the Cowboys after winning the minor premiership and conceding less than any other team during the season. The Roosters looked certain premiers in 2004, topped the defensive ranks, yet lost out to a gritty Bulldogs in the grand final.
The team that concedes the least points during the NRL season has qualified for 17 of the last 20 grand finals, won eleven of them and the second-ranked defensive teams have won or been runners-up on nine separate occasions.
With three rounds remaining in 2024, the Bulldogs top the metric with Penrith close by and the Storm and Roosters a little further back. History suggests the top two are odds-on to be there. But is it all a little too soon for the Dogs?