At the conclusion of last season, I wrote an article making some predictions and posing some questions looking forward to the Adelaide Crows 2024 campaign.
Despite all the optimism and expectation, I was concerned that if a few things started going wrong in key areas it was easy to imagine a scenario where all the momentum of last year was squandered and they were back in the chop striving to avoid the bottom four again.
Unfortunately, that proved far too prescient for supporters of the club.
As Adelaide says goodbye to yet another season of disappointment that is exactly where they landed.
Virtually it was a worst-case scenario for a team that had expectations both internally and externally to not only make finals but to push hard for the top four. So where did it all go wrong?
As evinced by his solid form since resuming, the injury to Riley Thilthorpe just before the season dawned was obviously not ideal.
But injuries are to be expected in a football season and Adelaide was far from the worst struck during 2024 – so I’m not even going to consider the health of the list as a factor.
A striking own goal from the club this year was the bizarrely timed announcement that coach Matthew Nicks was being re-signed for a further two years, after the first-round loss against the Gold Coast.
Admittedly at the time, I wasn’t personally against the move as I believed that it would give Nicks the confidence to manage the team’s best interests without worrying about performance.
There were plenty arguing the contrary, however, in hindsight, I admit that I was completely wrong about this.
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As the losses mounted to start the year Nicks was visibly agitated having to defend not only his team’s poor form but also this seemingly undeserved extension.
Now that the season is concluded it is fair to ask why Nicks wasn’t put under more pressure to perform this year.
Given the club’s unprecedented lack of success during his tenure and the fact that he was unlikely to be the target of outside interest, it still seems a strange move.
Whatever the reasons for the extension, it seemed to have the opposite effect than intended as rather than promote the young talent and allow the team to play the attacking brand that had made the competition take notice of the Crows in 2023 the team regressed into being a fumbling, imprecise, conservative mess.
The team’s confidence shot after a 0-4 start to the season, Adelaide slowly began to build after a last-gasp away win against Carlton in Round 5.
By the time the Crows delivered a 99-point thumping to the West Coast in Round 11, their record had improved to 4-1-6 with a Showdown victory and a couple of close losses indicating the team was back to a competitive level and in the hunt for finals.
Two very winnable games appeared to follow against the Hawks, a team in almost the exact position as the Crows at the time, and the hapless Richmond.
Ben Keays, Josh Worrell, Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine of the Crows. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)
Victory in these two games would take the team to an even ledger with just over half the season completed.
In hindsight, Adelaide’s loss against Hawthorn appears unremarkable given the Hawks’ phenomenal ascent this season.
The loss against Richmond the following week, however, was unforgivable as Adelaide was outworked and humiliated at home by the undermanned cellar-dwellers.
The plane had crashed into the mountain.
While far from out of reach mathematically, finals looked a long way off for a team playing without skill, spirit or pride.
If Nicks had not been re-signed by the club earlier in the year he would have been – or should have been – sacked after that performance.
The team was clearly not playing to potential and whether that was his leadership or other less tangible factors it was clear that something would have to give.
The rest of the season the Crows stumbled from a surprising win or good performance to a disappointing loss without particular rhyme or reason.
Adelaide cruised along on a strange mix of potential, Izak Rankine brilliance and overly optimistic assessments of the likelihood of the team progressing into September long, after it was obvious to all but the most optimistic that they hadn’t been anywhere near good enough for long enough.
So what went wrong and how does it get fixed? The first and easiest observation is that the Crows are still heavily reliant on players who, while fine players in their own right, are not getting the job done.
Rory Laird and Matt Crouch should not be in the same midfield together – along with Jordan Dawson they are too similar and they are denying opportunities for younger players who might be able to show something different.
Essendon celebrate their win over Adelaide. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
In his favour, Nicks started to give the youngsters a go towards the back of the season but the middle is where the game is set up and the Crows need to find a new formula.
Players like Luke Pedlar, Zach Taylor and Billy Dowling, under the leadership of Dawson, Rankine and Jake Soligo must be given extended opportunities to see if a more potent ball-winning brigade can be developed.
Another big decision facing the club is the future of Taylor Walker. An all-time great of the club, his time has now simply gone.
While he still may contribute, and at a high level on occasion, he is too slow and is at the point of taking opportunities from others.
If he is to stay for another year it must be on the understanding that he is there as a mentor and a back-up.
The time for Darcy Fogarty and Thilthorpe to make the forward line their own is now and another year of diminishing returns from Tex only delays this development.
There are definitely signs of hope for the Crows – at their best, their attack is no less potent than it was in 2023.
The defence now appears to have a real solidity with Jordan Butts and Nick Murray as the central planks along with the emerging Josh Worrell and Max Michalanney.
Fix the issues in the midfield and Adelaide can once again be looked on as a serious contender.
All in all, I think the team is in almost exactly the same position it was in at this time last year.
However, going back to the same well with the same players won’t change a thing and if they don’t start the year with a positive record, Nicks will be struggling to get past the mid-year bye rounds.
It is being said of the Crows that the difference between their best and their worst is the biggest in the league.
Which version of Adelaide will we see in 2025?