How in God’s name do Geelong keep doing this? Burning questions from latest Clayton Oliver trade bombshell

For the second year in a row, Clayton Oliver is set to be one of the big stories of the AFL Trade Period.

That’s because, according to reports from everyone’s favourite* newshound Sam McClure, the 2021 Melbourne premiership hero, four-time best and fairest winner and three-time All-Australian is again on the trade table for 2024 – and this time, he’s even apparently keen on joining Geelong.

Having just fended off weeks of speculation over Christian Petracca’s future, it’s yet another off-field PR hailstorm for the Dees to deal with – and it’s starting to feel significantly more real than it did in 2023.

Here are five burning questions from the latest Demons trade bombshell.

» Check out the full list of AFL trade rumours here

How likely is this to happen?

Once again, any Oliver trade – or even a request – carries with it a supreme amount of complications. Six yeas worth of them, to be exact, given that’s how long his current Melbourne deal has left to go on it. Until the end of 2030, to be exact, and with a quite enormous, $10 million monetary figure attached to it.

Just as it was with Christian Petracca’s brief (if you believe his public re-declaration of commitment to the red and blue) dalliance with a trade a month ago, the stumbling block here is that the party with more say in negotiations than any other – Melbourne themselves – is the one least likely to want to blow up the deal and get Oliver to where he wants to go, not least because the Cats aren’t exactly going to offer market value with their draft hand courtesy of years of success.

But unlike Petracca, who the Demons were never willing to part ways with, grumbling over Oliver has increased in recent weeks, according to reports; from new, unnamed off-field misdemeanours and talk of the Dees’ internal review triggered by Petracca’s trade shock being less than favourable towards the star No.13, there is at least a hint of a fraction of a suggestion that possibly the Demons could maybe be willing to consider entertaining the notion of a trade. Perhaps.

The differences to last year are key: in 2023, the more that came out about the Oliver trade bombshell, the more it became clear that the Dees were really using it as a thinly veiled threat for him to shape up after a turbulent few months. Any clubs linked to Oliver – Adelaide most obviously – were done more out of speculation over who would need a player of his talents the most and who had the best bargaining chips to entice the Dees to trade someone they could absolutely hold to their contract.

That’s changed this year, with the Cats now heavily linked – to the point Oliver has actually met with Rhys Stanley and Tom Stewart on Stanley’s farm – and the star midfielder’s value now significantly diminished after a poor by his standards season.

If you were asking for a percentage chance of a trade happening, I’d put it at maybe 25 per cent.

It’s about two times higher than it was last season, but the Dees still have an awful lot to lose by offloading a player of Oliver’s calibre – especially given in his current state, his monster contract is a substantial hindrance to his trade value unless they’re willing to take on a monster chunk of the deal to have him play for someone else.

How much is Clayton Oliver worth?

Let’s be frank here – the right answer to the above question is ‘whatever Melbourne are willing to accept to give him up’.

But to play hypotheticals here, there are so many variables to Oliver’s situation that determining his value is more difficult than, say, a Tom Barrass or a Bailey Smith.

With clubs, the Cats among them, reportedly not overeager to give up all that much for him given his recent history, plus a sizeable salary cap addition even if the Demons agree to take on part of his wage, together with his down 2024 season, Oliver’s value has likely never been lower than it is right now.

On the other hand, the Dees hold all the cards – unless they really, REALLY want him off the books, they don’t need to acquiesce to any trade request he makes. I’d suggest no CEO or list manager, nor even coach Simon Goodwin, would be ballsy enough to push a trade through in less than favourable circumstances – the outcry from fans and derision from the media would be sufficient for immediate, Ned Guy-esque sackings for whoever authorised it.

But if you removed all that extra baggage, or consider those two opposing forces to counteract one another, I’d say Oliver has more value than any single player being talked about in trade discussions this season (unless Petracca re-enters the chat).

At his best, he’s a top-five player in the AFL, a dominant midfield force who would walk into any team in the AFL and be a first-choice on-baller and make that group better. One underwhelming season after a tortured summer doesn’t change that, and at just 27 years old he still could have the better part of a decade of elite footy ahead of him.

So if I was Melbourne, I’d be asking for two first-rounders from the Cats and an added player sweetener (try for young ruckman Toby Conway or Sam De Koning, and if that falls through settle for Mitch Knevitt).

If they say no – and I would seriously doubt they’d say yes – then Oliver remains in red and blue, and they put up the ‘Don’t forget, you’re here forever’ de-motivational poster in his locker room like Mr Burns did to Homer Simpson.

» Get to know the full list of AFL free agents for 2024 here

What would the Cats give up?

The great thing in all this for the Cats is that Oliver is really the unexpected bonus of their upcoming trade period; they’ve met with him and wooed him, but I honestly don’t think they need him.

Problems with their midfield are exaggerated – their scores from stoppages numbers were off the charts in the second half of the season – and while Patrick Dangerfield will eventually be replaced, there’s another midfielder coming their way for whom they actually do hold significantly greater leverage. More on him later.

There’s no one on the outer at the Cats worth much on the open market, and with their first-round pick otherwise engaged, it would behoove them to make an early offer of, say, a future first-rounder and this year’s second-rounder for Oliver (having used first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, they’re safe under AFL rules that two first-rounders have to be used every four years), and see just how out of love Melbourne really are with their four-time club champion.

But if they’re feeling properly adventurous, then how does this sound: trade the contracted Sam De Koning to Carlton for their pick 11, use 11 and 15 to wrangle for Oliver – plus that player sweetener mentioned earlier – and then make Bailey Smith walk to the draft, offering him the sort of up-front deal that turned everyone away from Luke Ball some 15 years ago and let Collingwood nab him with pick 30?

None of this will happen, of course: but how cool would it be!

What does this mean for the Bailey Smith trade?

As if what’s set to be the most passive aggressive trade of the whole silly season (unless Port and Carlton really turn up the heat on Dan Houston) didn’t need further complications, along comes Oliver to throw a great whopping spanner in the works.

If, as in all likelihood, an Oliver deal can’t be struck, then all this is is an unwelcome distraction that could push Smith trade negotiations right down to deadline day on Wednesday week, where it could well be going anyway.

Realistically, unless the Cats part with someone of De Koning-esque value (and probably receive overs for him), there’s unlikely to be a way for them to nab both Oliver and Smith. And even if they did pull that off, I’m not sure it’s a net gain for them to add two (admittedly star) midfielders and lose the lynchpin around which their backline will revolve for the next decade.

If an Oliver trade does come through, though, it will most likely be Melbourne accepting significant unders to have him off their books: as much as they can with an out of contract player, the Dogs will be playing hardball over Smith, and as they showed two years ago with Josh Dunkley they’re willing to hold firm right up to deadline day to get the best possible deal they can.

Currently, the Dogs’ stance is that pick 15 alone isn’t enough, especially given Academy and father-son picks are set to dilute another draft. The Cats’ pick after that stands at pick 35, while you’d expect their future first-rounder to be about the same as this year’s, unless they have a surprise slump.

Geelong will likely have to choose two of these three players to have on the books: Smith, De Koning, Oliver. Personally, if I was them, I’d be going with the first two.

How in God’s name do Geelong keep doing this?

Regardless of how the Oliver trade bombshell plays out, the mere mention of Geelong in these negotiations was always going to bring on a response from the footy world ranging from resigned to fuming.

Yet again, it’s the Cats front and centre in appeal for the best available – and in Oliver’s case, unavailable – talent on offer. Why does this keep happening, I hear you ask, and when will the AFL hand them the same trade ban they did Sydney for poaching Lance Franklin from GWS unsubstantiated but definitely legitimate reasons?

The answer requires a little bit of nuance. Yes, Geelong likely do very well for themselves in arrangements with local businesses and property developers – Tom Hawkins and his wife owning 62 hectares of farmland 30 minutes from the beach when he’s apparently been on minimum AFL wage for the last seven years is enough to raise an eyebrow at the least – and who knows whether the AFL apparently monitoring Cotton On’s player deals for any suspicious spikes in Bailey Smith’s arrangement with them will actually find anything, or do anything about it if they do.

But there’s also a point where you have to respect the Cats’ moxie – they identify the players they want, pick their moments to make offers, make effective pitches to them, and once they arrive make them better footballers. When was the last time the Cats lost a trade?

It’s also important to note that far fewer players would be interested in going to Geelong if they sucked: no amount of lucrative beachfront properties, or personal sponsors, is going to convince your average star to come to a team down the bottom. Just look at how many guns, from Dustin Martin to Josh Kelly to Andrew Gaff, have baulked at enormous contract offers from North Melbourne in the last eight years.

Keeping them all under the salary cap, and continuing to do so year after year after year with no Collingwood-esque overflowing catastrophes, is one matter worth investigating or at least being suspicious of.

But it’s not just about the money. Geelong have been a destination club for a decade, and while the quality of the players they attract makes them good, those players are all coming because they’re already good.