It’s the end of an era for the IndyCar Series. Next weekend, with the 2024 season wrapping up, NBC will broadcast the series for the final time before IndyCar jumps to Fox next year.
But before we leave the peacock network’s nest, the National Championship trail will make one last stop in Nashville for the Music City Grand Prix, where Álex Palou, Will Power, and Scott McLaughlin will have a three-way showdown for all the marbles.
Before this Tennessee triangle dance gets underway, let’s go over what each of these three contenders will need to do to take home the Astor Cup.
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For Palou, a straightforward task
After holding the championship lead for most of the season, Álex Palou is out to lock in his third championship in four years. If El Gorila finishes the job, he’ll solidify IndyCar’s first dynasty since Dario Franchitti, and it’ll fast-track Palou towards all-time greatness at just 27 years of age.
He’s won two road course races this year, one in Indianapolis and the other in Monterey, as well as the all-star exhibition in Thermal, but the real key to this lead has been Palou’s refusal to make mistakes or have bad days—in fact, he’s finished outside the top five just three times all season, and two of those weren’t even his fault.
As you’d expect, Palou controls his own destiny in this fight. He needs 22 points to clinch the title, so if the Barcelona native crosses the finish line in ninth or better, then he wins the championship, no matter what.
If Palou collects all possible bonus points, then he could theoretically win the title from as low as 12th, even before factoring crashes from his rivals. Knowing Palou, though, that’s cutting it much closer than he’ll want. Expect him to be his usual composed self, stay out of trouble, and generally make it difficult for anyone to stop him.
For Power, a tightrope walk
With or without this championship, Will Power will still be the greatest Australian driver in American open-wheel racing history, but a third career title and second in three years certainly wouldn’t hurt. After a winless 2023, Power bounced back in style, winning at Road America, the Sunday Iowa race, and Portland, and he’s been aided by the best pit crew in the business.
Now, as tends to happen, he enters the final race with a chance to be champion, the Chip Ganassi #10’s driver in his way, and a slew of past miscues just waiting to haunt him if he doesn’t win it all.
Going into the weekend, Power sits 33 points behind Palou and can earn up to 54 points in this race. For an optimal shot at the title, Power must aim to either win or finish second. That by itself won’t guarantee it, but if he can do that and Palou finishes tenth or worse, then Power will complete the comeback and win the championship.
A bronze with all bonuses could also get Power over the line if Palou takes tenth, and a DNF for the Spaniard could open the window even wider—the earlier, the more so—but Power has the skill, the confidence, and the car to gun directly for victory, and he’ll want to win the battle and the war in one fell swoop.
For McLaughlin, a miracle
Scott McLaughlin has rapidly improved with each year since his big move from Supercars to Indy cars, and 2024 was another massive leap in his evolution. In qualifying, McLaughlin was an absolute monster, taking five pole positions and setting new qualifying records at multiple tracks, including the Brickyard itself.
Scott McLaughlin of New Zealand driving a Chevrolet for Team Penske. (Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)
More importantly, he was able to convert that pace to consistent results on race day. He led the most laps of any driver and picked up seven championship podiums, including wins at Alabama, the first Iowa race, and the second Milwaukee race.
The latter two are of particular importance, since Iowa was his first ever win on an oval and Milwaukee kept him mathematically alive for the finale. If not for the discovery of P2Pgate wiping out his bronze in St. Petersburg, McLaughlin might be leading this fight, but the fact he survived to the end in spite of that is a testament to how talented he really is.
Unfortunately for Scotty Mac, he currently sits 50 points out from first place, and just starting the race is worth five. The moment Palou crosses the starting line, McLaughlin will be eliminated. If Palou finishes dead last and McLaughlin wins while scoring maximum points, we’ll be left with a story of how Team Penske’s cheating at the start of the year cost McLaughlin everything at the end of it.
But suppose we want the fun answer to the question. Let’s pretend that it’s the day of the race, Palou had a spiritual epiphany when he woke up, and he’s now abandoned society to go live in a cave until he achieves enlightenment. If something like that happens, McLaughlin wins the race, and Power misses the podium, then Scotty Mac will pull off the heist of the century for his first IndyCar championship.
Don’t get it twisted—this is a one-in-a-billion scenario. But in a year where Pato O’Ward took IndyCar’s first-ever win by retroactive disqualification, the cars switched to a hybrid formula midseason, and Luca Ghiotto debuted by running over a fallen mannequin, a McLaughlin miracle would be a fitting end to one of the most insane seasons in recent memory.