The trade involving Jack Ginnivan and Lachie Schultz, which was seen as a strategic move by Collingwood, in hindsight has been a massive mistake.
What seemed like a calculated decision has cost Collingwood a spot in this year’s finals, with Hawthorn emerging as the clear winner of this exchange.
The trade that raised eyebrows
When Ginnivan was traded to Hawthorn at the end of the 2023 season, it was a move that many Collingwood supporters found puzzling. Ginnivan, who’d just played a pivotal role in the premiership run, was suddenly deemed surplus to requirements by Craig McRae.
2023 was not his best year, but 2022 showed his potential. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the acquisition of Lachie Schultz, which only further crowded an already competitive forward line.
Ginnivan, fresh off a successful season, found himself on the outer, with McRae smacking his humility during the exit meeting. First notice of an issue – in a less than ten-minute rapid-fire meeting by McRae – not much respect in the time given to Ginnivan as he was fast-tracked out of Olympic Park.
Forget helping the Pies to a premiership. Ginnivan’s future in black and white side destroyed with no warning.
Hawthorn’s surprise advantage
Fast forward to the 2024 season, and the results are telling. While neither the Pies nor Hawthorn are likely to make the finals this year, Hawthorn’s recent performances have been stronger, meaning that they may end up finishing above Collingwood on the ladder.
This outcome would result in Hawthorn benefiting more from the pick swap involved in the Ginnivan trade—a fresh twist that few would have predicted at the time. Only time will tell but if the future 2024 round 2 pick swap by Collingwood and Hawthorn has the Hawks finish above the Pies then Collingwood paid for Ginnivan to go.
Statistical showdown
When comparing the performances of Ginnivan and Schultz this season, the data is interesting.
Goals per game: Both Ginnivan and Schultz have averaged 1.2 goals per game, demonstrating similar effectiveness in front of goal.
Disposals per game: Ginnivan leads significantly with an average of 16.7 disposals per game, compared to Schultz’s 11.8.
Marks per game: Ginnivan again outperforms Schultz with 4.1 marks per game, against Schultz’s 3.1.
Clearances per game: Ginnivan also edges out Schultz in this area, averaging 1.2 clearances per game to Schultz’s 0.8.
A key area where Schultz has the upper hand is in tackles, where he averages 3.8 per game, compared to Ginnivan’s 2.5. Despite this, the overall statistics seem to favour Ginnivan, making the trade at a statistical level look increasingly lopsided.
The stats give the advantage to Hawthorn. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
The X-factor: Ginnivan’s intangibles
However, this is where it gets interesting, what these numbers don’t capture is the unique presence that Ginnivan brings to the field and the locker room. Described as having a larger-than-life personality, Ginnivan’s self-belief and infectious energy are qualities that can lift a team beyond their statistical output. This intangible factor has been underestimated by McRae but is something that Hawthorn is now benefiting from.
Ginnivan does not have the credentials to support his self-belief or maybe he does, as he does have a flag but his self-belief is one of those intangible factors that makes him a winner. As I watched Collingwood lose to Sydney on Friday night, I was thinking gee they would have won that with Ginnivan there.
Ginnivan made an intangible difference in 2022 and 2023 that the Pies have not replaced this year. They have a little less sparkle in 2024 without him. A nice mundanity.
Ginnivan’s ability to rally his teammates and make emotive impact at vital moments is something that Collingwood missed this year. Maybe he just makes footy more fun for his teammates from the locker room, by distracting them form footy. I am not sure, but the Hawks fans will be wrapt that Fly has made his first major mistake and not only cost the Pies finals but improved the Hawks’ rebuild.
The cost
As the 2024 season closes, it’s clear that the Pies’ decision to trade Ginnivan has been a misstep that has cost them a chance at back-to-back finals appearances. While McRae has been ridiculously successful in his tenure, this particular decision has spectacularly backfired.
Ginnivan though his infectious nature can win change the course of two to three games a year. That would have been enough for the a top-four Collingwood finish.
The fact that Hawthorn, bolstered by Ginnivan’s performances, could end up ahead in the ladder and with a better draft position only adds salt to the wound. Hawthorn picked up a taller younger small forward who has shown some mid ield promise for the free set of steak knives, and possibly a higher draft hand than the Pes in what looms as a deep draft.
Let’s hope for Pies fans Mitchell does not find a Patrick Cripps in that draft position. Kudos overall to the Hawks recruiting department, fast and decisive.
In the end, the Ginnivan trade serves as a reminder that in the world of AFL, the intangibles can sometimes be just as important as the statistics—and that underestimating the emotive elements of the locker room to the footy field them can come at a high cost.