As Tropical Depression Nineteen teeters on the brink of becoming Tropical Storm Sara, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted when the storm’s winds will make landfall.
An NHC map reveals the most likely arrival time of tropical storm-force winds of 39mph or greater as the storm moves eastwards towards Central America.
These powerful winds are forecast to hit the north coast of Honduras at around 8 p.m. ET on Friday, reaching the northern section of Guatemala on Sunday morning and hitting eastern Belize by Sunday evening. By Monday morning, the storm is expected to make landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, after which it will travel back over the ocean to the northwest.
However, the forecast gets less and less certain as time passes, with a likelihood of being correct after Saturday morning of less than 60 percent, dropping to less than 30 percent from Sunday evening onwards.
National Hurricane Center NHC / CSU/CIRA & NOAA
“Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center also use ensemble models, often described to the public as ‘spaghetti models,’ which resolve potential paths of the center based on slightly different model characteristics and input environmental conditions,” Nicholas Grondin, an assistant professor of environmental studies at the University of Tampa, told Newsweek. “However, the science behind track forecasting at this point is limited to about five days, which is why once a system forms, the National Hurricane Center forecasts only extend out five days.”
The storm, which is currently a tropical depression with wind speeds of 35mph, will be officially named Tropical Storm Sara once it reaches tropical storm strength, which is expected to occur in the next 48 hours.
Sara may then strengthen even further, possibly into a hurricane, in the coming days.
“The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast discussion.
“The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.”
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in place along the Honduras coast as the storm approaches, with as much as 30 inches of rain being expected in some areas of northern Honduras, and up to 15 inches forecast across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
“Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua,” the NHC said.
Additionally, up to 3 feet of storm surge is forecast along the northern coast of Honduras.
Exactly how much the storm will intensify in the next day or so is still unclear, as forecasters can’t yet tell how long the storm will spend over land.
“Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs,” the NHC said.
Additionally, after its encounter with Central America, the storm may veer to the northeast, taking it towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, though the likelihood of this is also very unclear at this stage.
“It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week,” the NHC said.
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