Iran Poised to Expand Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile: IAEA

Iran is set to “dramatically” increase its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned on Friday, following Tehran’s activation of advanced centrifuges.

Rafael Mariano Grossi’s comments came hours after Iran launched its heaviest payload ever into space, adding to concerns about the country’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities.

Speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Grossi cautioned that Iran had started activating cascades of advanced IR-6 centrifuges, which could significantly accelerate the enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels.

Iran’s uranium is currently enriched to 60 percent, just 30 percent away from the 90 percent threshold needed for a nuclear weapon.

Iran's Simorgh rocket
The launch of the Simorgh, or ‘Phoenix,’ rocket at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province, Iran. Dec. 6, 2024. Its launch comes as Iran’s nuclear program now enriches uranium at 60 percent, a…


Iranian Defense Ministry via AP

Is Iran Building Nuclear Weapons?

Grossi stressed the gravity of the situation, stating, “If they really make them turn—all of them—it’s going to be a huge jump.”

The IAEA had recently confirmed that Iran had begun feeding uranium previously enriched to 20 percent into two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges.

These advanced machines can enrich uranium at a faster rate than the country’s baseline IR-1 models, raising alarms over the potential for rapid nuclear advancement.

The announcement came shortly after Iran successfully launched its Simorgh rocket from the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Semnan province.

The launch, which carried a 300-kilogram payload—the heaviest ever for Iran—included an ‘orbital propulsion system’ and the Fakhr-1 satellite, reportedly for military use.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi speaks during a joint press briefing with head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 14, 2024. He recently said…


Vahid Salemi/AP

Rocket Launch and Satellite Advancements Fuel Fears of Iran’s Missile Development

Tehran described the launch as a major milestone for its civilian space program, though critics argue that it doubles as a cover for advancing its ballistic missile technology.

The Simorgh rocket, which placed its payload in a 400-kilometer orbit, could give Iran the ability to geo-synchronize its satellites—a capability critical for developing long-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

U.S. intelligence has long warned that Iran’s space launch vehicle technology overlaps significantly with that used for ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads.

Though Iran’s space program is officially described as civilian, U.S. officials argue that Tehran’s satellite launches violate U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which prohibits Iran from engaging in activities involving ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear weapons.

U.N. sanctions on Iran’s missile program expired in October 2023, but concerns persist over the long-term implications of Tehran’s space and missile developments.

Iran’s Changing Political Landscape

Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions have been driven by a mix of domestic and international pressures.

Under the more moderate leadership of President Hassan Rouhani, Iran slowed its space program, fearful of provoking the West.

However, with the rise of hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021, Tehran accelerated its missile and space developments.

Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May, had backed the space program as part of a broader push to enhance Iran’s technological and military capabilities.

Now, under reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has expressed interest in negotiating with the West over sanctions, Iran’s stance remains unclear.

Meanwhile, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard continues to push forward with its own parallel space program, evidenced by a successful launch in September.

U.S. officials continue to stress that Iran’s activities—both nuclear and ballistic—could destabilize the region, especially as Tehran’s leaders increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon.

Grossi reaffirmed the urgency of monitoring Iran’s actions, highlighting the potential for a sharp escalation if Tehran fully activates its advanced centrifuges.

“It’s going to be a huge jump,” he warned. The world, he said, is watching closely as Iran inches closer to crossing the threshold of nuclear weapons capability, all while enhancing its ability to launch advanced missiles into space.

This article contains additional reporting from The Associated Press

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