Is Indiana having greatest single-season turnaround in recent CFB history?

At this time last season, Indiana was entering the penultimate week of the regular season in the final year of the Tom Allen era. The Hoosiers weren’t able to pick up wins in either of their final two regular-season games, ending their 2023 season at 3-9.

That’s why it’s a major surprise that one year later, Indiana is 10-0 and controls its own destiny in the Big Ten title race entering Saturday’s matchup against Ohio State on Big Noon Kickoff (noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Even though first-year Indiana coach Curt Cignetti would proudly let you know that he has a winning track record (and his history backs that statement up — just google him), the jump is still surprising considering where Indiana was a year ago and the history of the program. Its win over Michigan in Week 11 marked the first time it had ever won 10 games in a season. 

As Cignetti has the Hoosiers on the precipice of making the College Football Playoff, it’s easy to wonder if Indiana is in the midst of the greatest single-season turnaround in the history of the sport. Let’s take a look at the best year-over-year win increases across FBS since 2000 (excluding teams from the 2021 season such as Michigan and Michigan State as they played a condensed schedule in 2020) and see where Indiana stacks up from the group. 

2005 UCF (went from 0-11 to 8-5; +8 wins)

After a winless first season at UCF, head coach George O’Leary was finally able to break through in Year 2. The Golden Knights showed out in their first season in Conference USA, going 7-1 against conference opponents during the regular season. Future NFL star Brandon Marshall played a large role in the turnaround, recording 74 receptions for 1,195 yards and a conference-high 11 touchdowns. Running back Kevin Smith, who also enjoyed a solid stint in the NFL, rushed for 1,178 yards and nine touchdowns that season.

UCF wasn’t able to carry its strong play against conference foes in the regular season to the conference championship game, decisively losing to Tulsa. The Golden Knights then also lost to Nevada in overtime in the Hawaii Bowl. 

That season wound up spearheading a relatively strong run for O’Leary at UCF, as he went 12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win in 2012. 

2011 Houston (went from 5-7 to 13-1; +8 wins)

Kevin Sumlin coached Houston to a 10-win season in his second year at Houston in 2009 before falling to five wins in 2010 as quarterback Case Keenum suffered a season-ending injury. 

When Keenum returned in 2011, Houston got back on track. Keenum led the nation in passing yards (5,631) and passing touchdowns (48), helping the Cougars go 13-1. His performance even earned him some Heisman votes that year, finishing seventh in the race that Robert Griffin III won. 

The one loss Houston suffered came at an inopportune time, though. The Cougars fell to Southern Miss in the C-USA Championship Game, costing Houston a potential berth to play in a BCS bowl.

Still, Houston ended the year on a high note, defeating Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl to finish the year ranked 18th. 

Sumlin left Houston following the season, accepting Texas A&M’s offer to become its head coach. 

2014 Air Force (went from 2-10 to 10-3; +8 wins)

After having the worst season of his 18-year tenure at Air Force in 2013, Troy Calhoun arguably had his best season with the program in 2014. Running back Jacobi Owens (1,054 rushing yards), wide receiver Jalen Robinette (806 receiving yards), running back Shayne Davern (eight rushing touchdowns) and running back D.J. Johnson (eight rushing touchdowns) all contributed to a triple option Air Force offense that was among the best in the Mountain West that season.

Air Force actually defeated eventual conference champion Boise State in the regular season that year, but the Falcons had a few too many stumbles along the way to make it to the conference title game. But Air Force did win its bowl game that season, defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 

Calhoun has remained at Air Force since that strong year, coaching the Falcons to four more 10-plus win seasons since then. Air Force is in the midst of a three-win season in 2024. 

2017 Florida Atlantic (went from 3-9 to 11-3; +8 wins)

Lane Kiffin immediately turned around Florida Atlantic upon his arrival in Boca Raton in 2017. Getting his first shot at being a head coach since he was fired by USC in 2013, Kiffin immediately made the Owls a contender in Conference USA. 

Future NFL running back Devin Singletary was a huge reason for the team’s offensive success as they finished eighth in the nation in scoring that year. Singletary rushed for a conference-high 1,920 yards and a nation-high 32 touchdowns that year. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who led the NFL in total tackles in 2023 with the Houston Texans, had 147 total tackles that season as well.

Kiffin’s arrival and his reshaping of FAU’s offense, plus the performances from Singletary and Al-Shaair, helped Florida Atlatnic go undefeated in conference play before defeating North Texas in the C-USA Conference Championship Game. The Owls then crushed Akron, 50-3, in a virtual home game at the Boca Raton Bowl.

Kiffin led Florida Atlantic to another 10-win season in 2019, which was his last with the program before he returned to power conference football and left for Ole Miss at the end of the season. 

2018 Georgia Southern (went from 2-10 to 10-3; +8 wins)

Chad Lunsford oversaw an immediate turnaround at Georgia Southern in his first full year with the program in 2018, using its defense to propel the Eagles to 10 wins. Future NFL cornerback Kindle Vildor had four interceptions on the season while current Buffalo Bill Tyler Bass proved to be one of the nation’s best kickers that season, making all but two kicks. 

Georgia Southern picked up an upset win over 25th-ranked Appalachian State that year, but its 6-2 record in conference play wasn’t enough to get the Falcons to the Sun Belt Championship Game. They defeated Eastern Michigan in the Camellia Bowl later that season.

Lunsford had a couple more winning seasons after that, but a 1-3 start to the 2021 season cost him his job. He was eventually replaced by former USC coach Clay Helton.

2019 Navy (went from 3-10 to 11-2; +8 wins)

Longtime Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo faced some trouble in the 2018 season, going 3-10 as the program had its worst season in 15 years at the time. Niumatalolo was able to keep his job, however, setting up a rebound in 2019. 

Navy mostly dominated its opponents in the American Athletic Conference in 2019, going 7-1 that year. The Midshipmen finished the season 12th in scoring and 34th in points allowed, with quarterback Malcolm Perry flourishing in the triple option offense. Perry, who threw for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns, rushed for a conference-high 2,017 yards to go with 21 rushing scores. Fullback Jamale Carothers added 16 total touchdowns that year.

Navy lost a tiebreaker to Memphis that season, just missing out on an AAC title game berth. But the Midshipmen soundly defeated archrival Army, 31-7, before beating Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl to finish the season ranked 20th.

The 2019 season wound up being Niumatalolo’s last winning season at Navy. The Midshipmen won four or fewer games over the next three years before he was let go at the end of 2022. 

2022 TCU (went from 5-7 to 13-2; +8 wins)

TCU’s magical run in the 2022 season might arguably be the best single-season turnaround in recent memory, especially because of what happened after the regular season. After longtime TCU head coach Gary Patterson resigned in the midst of a 5-7 year in 2021, replacement Sonny Dykes led the Horned Frogs to the national championship game in his first year with the program. 

Dykes quickly made TCU a legitimate threat in the Big 12, blowing out 18th-ranked Oklahoma in Week 5. After that romp, five of TCU’s next eight games were decided by one score. The Horned Frogs won all of them, defeating four ranked opponents in that stretch. One of those wins came at rival Baylor, where TCU needed a walk-off field goal as time expired for a 29-28 victory.

Some of the magic wore off in the Big 12 Championship Game, where TCU lost to Kansas State in overtime. But the Horned Frogs recaptured the magic for long enough to stun Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, winning 51-45 behind strong performances from Max Duggan, Emeari Demarcado and Quentin Johnston.

The magic ran out for good in the national championship game, though. TCU fell to Georgia, 65-7, in the largest loss ever in a title game. While it was a strong first year for Dykes at TCU, the last couple of seasons haven’t been nearly as great. The Horned Frogs went 5-7 in 2023 and are 6-4 entering Week 13. 

2010 Miami (OH) (went from 1-11 to 10-4; +9 wins)

Head coach Michael Haywood’s second season at Miami (OH) went much better than his first, taking the RedHawks from the basement of the MAC to the top of the conference.

Miami actually had a negative point differential in the 2010 season, but was able to go 5-0 in one-score games in the regular season. The RedHawks had another one-score win in the MAC Championship Game, defeating 24th-ranked Northern Illinois, 26-21. Their win over Middle Tennessee in the GoDaddy.com Bowl was a bit more decisive, winning 35-21.

That wound up being Haywood’s last season at Miami as he took the Pitt head coach job after the regular-season ended. However, just weeks after Haywood took the job, he was arrested on a domestic violence charge and fired by Pitt. Miami hasn’t had a season as good since then, either, with only one eight-win season in that time. 

2013 Auburn (went from 3-9 to 12-2; +9 wins)

If TCU’s turnaround in 2022 isn’t the best single-season turnaround since 2000, then Auburn’s turnaround in 2013 likely takes the cake.

Just two years after guiding a Cam Newton-led Auburn team to a national championship, head coach Gene Chizik was fired following a 3-9 season in 2012. Gus Malzahn, who was the offensive coordinator of that title-winning team before becoming Arkansas State’s head coach, took over and led Auburn right back to prominence. After an early-season loss to LSU, Auburn won six straight games — including two ranked wins — before the Tigers got some magic to bounce thier way. 

First, Auburn defeated Georgia on a deflected Hail Mary in the final minute on a play that became known as the “Prayer at Jordan-Hare.” It’s the type of play that would have defined the Tigers’ season if not for what happened two weeks later, when Auburn was on the right side on one of the most memorable endings in sports history. 

Chris Davis returned Alabama’s missed kick from the back of the end zone on the final play of regulation for a touchdown to give Auburn a 34-28 win, ending its in-state rival’s hopes of a national three-peat and instead sending the Tigers to the SEC Championship Game. 

Auburn defeated Missouri in the conference title game to earn a spot in the final BCS National Championship Game. The Tigers came much closer to winning that title game than TCU, taking the lead in the final minutes against Florida State before Jameis Winston led the Seminoles on a touchdown drive for the game-winning score in the final seconds. 

Malzahn had some good seasons after 2013, but wasn’t able to get back to the stage he reached in 2013. He was eventually let go by Auburn after a 6-5 year in 2020. 

2017 Fresno State (went from 1-11 to 10-4; +9 wins)

Fresno State found itself in a state of despair after Derek Carr’s strong final season with the program in 2013, going 1-11 in 2016. Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford took over in 2017 and immediately made the Bulldogs a Mountain West contender with some help from offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer — yes, that Kalen DeBoer.

Fresno State went 7-1 in conference play during the regular season and finished 10th in the country in socring defense. The Bulldogs actually defeated a ranked Boise State team to close out the regular season, but lost to the Broncos in the conference championship game a week later. 

Tedford led Fresno State to a 12-2 season in 2018, but resigned after a 4-8 year in 2019 due to health reasons. DeBoer took over and parlayed two successful seasons into the Washington job at the end of 2021, where he would lead the Huskies to the national title game in 2023. Tedford then returned to his old job, leading Fresno State to back-to-back nine-plus win seasons before stepping away again in 2024.  

2022 Tulane (went from 2-10 to 12-2; +10 wins)

Willie Fritz stumbled in his sixth season at Tulane, going 2-10, but the school opted to keep him after a troubling 2021 season. He repaid the Green Wave in a big way, helping Tulane have one of its best seasons in quite some time. 

Tulane went 10-2 in the regular season behind strong play from quarterback Michael Pratt (3,009 yards, 27 touchdown passes), running back Tyjae Spears (1,581 rushing yards, 21 total touchdowns) and linebacker Dorian Williams (132 total tackles, five sacks, two interceptions). The Green Wave avenged their only loss in conference play in the regular season, defeating UCF in the AAC title game.

That win earned Tulane a chance to play USC in the Cotton Bowl, and the Green Wave used a frantic last-minute comeback to upset the Caleb Williams-led squad in the quarterback’s Heisman season, taking down the Trojans, 46-45.

Fritz led Tulane to an 11-win season in 2023 before leaving to become Houston’s head coach in 2024.

How Indiana stacks up

At the moment, Indiana doesn’t qualify to make the list for the best single-season turnaround based on wins. But the Hoosiers only needs one more victory to make the list.

Additionally, most of the teams on this list are schools in the non-power conference. Coincidentally, the programs that achieved the biggest single-season turnarounds in a power conference wound up making the national championship game that same season. 

So, Indiana might have to follow the path that Auburn took in 2013 or TCU took in 2022 in order to claim the best single-season turnaround in recent college football history. However, Cignetti has certainly got his program on the right path as it seeks a College Football Playoff berth that would’ve stunned just about everyone heading into the season. 

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