Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is staying hopeful in its push to score an upset victory in Florida and capture the state’s 30 electoral votes in the November presidential election.
During a fundraiser in New York City on Wednesday, second gentleman Doug Emhoff told donors that Harris’ team is “going to see what we can do” in the Sunshine State, where Democrats lost to former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.
“The map is wide-open, and we need the money to compete in seven and possibly eight states,” Emhoff said at the event in Brooklyn, per a report from ABC News correspondent Will McDuffie.
“I was just in Florida at the Villages and it was wild,” Emhoff added, referring to his campaign stop in Alachua County over the weekend. “It was way more people than we thought, and there was a lot of excitement, and we’re going to see what we can do down in Florida.”
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Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign for further comment Wednesday night.
Florida has been regarded as a reliable state for Republicans in recent years under Governor Ron DeSantis’ administration. Democrats have won only five presidential elections in Florida since 1952—former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.
But with issues like abortion on the ballot this year in Florida, Democrats have kicked it up a notch. Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison previously said that the party believes it “has a shot” at taking Florida and its 30 electoral votes, telling reporters this month, “I keep saying folks, they’re going to be surprised on election night about what happens in the state, that you can’t give up on Florida.”
According to polls, however, it is likely an uphill battle for Harris. Per FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Harris is down 3.6 percentage points to Trump (49.3 percent to 45.6 percent). President Joe Biden lost by 3.3 percentage points in Florida to Trump in 2020 despite winning the White House.
RealClearPolling gives the former president an even bigger lead, finding Trump up by 6 percentage points (49 percent to 43 percent). Pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast predicts that Trump has an 85.2 percent chance of winning Florida as of Wednesday.
There are signs that Republicans could slip, however. In a USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV survey conducted from August 7 to August 11, Trump was found to be ahead by just 5 percentage points (47 percent to 42 percent), his smallest lead in a month. Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power later called the poll “extremely alarming.”
“Fellow Conservative, it is our job to ensure Florida, Donald Trump’s home state, is LANDSLIDE for him in November,” Power wrote in a fundraising email in August.
Trump is also slipping among Florida women, a key voter bloc ahead of November that the former president has struggled to rally nationwide. In a Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab poll last month, Harris held a 10-point lead over Trump among female voters in Florida.
In a statement to Newsweek this month, Rachel Reisner, the GOP’s director of regional communications, dismissed any concerns over Florida flipping blue in the fall, saying, “Florida is Trump country.”
“In November, Florida voters will send a clear and resounding message: President Donald J. Trump is the only leader with a proven track record of making our nation prosperous and affordable,” Reisner said. “The movement to Make America Great Again is alive and growing, and it starts here in Florida.”