Kamala Harris could win in a landslide if polls underestimate the Democrats in the same way they did in 2022, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
According to Enten, on average, polls underestimated the Democrats by 4 points in the midterm elections, which saw the Democrats win 51 seats in the Senate while the Republicans took the House.
Enten’s analysis showed that if the polls are underestimating the Democrats again this year, Harris could win 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, meaning she would win all the crucial battleground states, and win the presidency.
Enten also noted that polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, when he carried 30 states, and 2020, when he carried 25 states. According to the analysis, the Republican’s best polls were on average 8 points better than in 2020 across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, this year, with Trump trailing Harris by 1 point, his best polls show that he is 3 points above his polling average in the three Great Lakes states. But according to Enten, it is unlikely that the polls are underestimating Trump again this year as no party has been underestimated in the polls in the swing states for three consecutive presidential election cycles since at least 1972.
In fact, according to Enten, the polls for Trump in the swing states may be “too good,” and may in reality be underestimating Harris.
Carlos Osorio/AP
“Here’s the bottom line,” he said. “I think a lot of folk are counting in that Donald Trump will in fact be underestimated by the polls, but when I’m looking at the evidence, I think that there are folks who are underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls, at least a week out.”
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Polls currently suggest that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College. For example, pollster Nate Silver’s forecast shows that Harris is 0.9 points ahead, with a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, owing to Trump’s position in the swing states, his forecast shows that Harris has a 44 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, to her opponent’s 55 percent chance.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris 1.4 points ahead nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48 percent chance.
Both aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris 0.1 points ahead in Nevada, while Silver’s forecast shows the two candidates tied.
In 2020, polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average and 7.2 points in RealClearPolitics’ average. However, he won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points—just enough for an Electoral College victory.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research labeled the polling miss in 2020 as the largest in 40 years, with polls overestimating Biden’s advantage in the final weeks.
Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.
Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek this week that polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters opt out of surveys due to distrust in institutions like the mainstream media and polling organizations.
“Trump supporters may have less trust in the institutions sponsoring these polls. If they choose not to participate because of this distrust, their support isn’t accurately captured,” Keeter said.
However, while polls have historically tended to underestimate Trump’s support, pollsters have adapted their methods in response to previous inaccuracies, increasingly using online and text message surveys.
Polling methods have changed substantially since 2016, when many surveys still relied on landlines, despite fewer than half of U.S. households having them. By 2022, 61 percent of U.S. polling organizations conducting national surveys in 2016 had moved to updated methods.
Experts also believe polling will be more accurate this year, as adjustments now better account for likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented.
“Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.