Penrith’s dynasty is by no means over but there’s a sense of a major chapter in their saga closing one way or the other as they enter the finals.
For the first time since they began their title run in 2021, they will not enter the playoffs as the favourites to be the last team standing on Grand Final night.
Uncertainty over Nathan Cleary’s comeback from a shoulder injury and an unusually inconsistent lead-in to the finals adds up to the three-time premiers being considered second to the Melbourne Storm juggernaut in the betting markets.
Penrith’s janky win over the Titans at BlueBet Stadium on Saturday night was not the kind of pre-finals flex that Ivan Cleary needed to see.
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There is an air of a Last Dance theme to their 2024 campaign, similar to the final season of the Chicago Bulls’ NBA reign more than a quarter of a century ago.
Unlike the Bulls who self-destructed after Michael Jordan’s last game for the franchise, Penrith will be in premiership contention for a few more years yet with Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Dylan Edwards, Moses Leota and Liam Martin still in the prime of their careers.
But they are farewelling two more crucial members of their golden run in James Fisher-Harris and Jarome Luai, along with winger Sunia Turuva.
They have a prodigious pipeline of junior talent rising through the ranks to replenish their stocks but it takes time for even the best prospects to dominate at NRL level.
JFH, Luai and Turuva are the latest names added to the bulging list of previous departures headlined by Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau, Matt Burton, Kurt Capewell and Api Koroisau.
It’s not quite a death by a thousand salary cap cuts but it makes it extremely hard to maintain a stranglehold on the pointy end of the ladder.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
At some point the salary cap squeeze and an ageing nucleus of key players will catch up with them.
The other factor that coach Cleary needs to curtail in this finals series is the team’s desire.
Do they still collectively have the hunger deep down to do what it is ever necessary to take the title?
Despite winning three straight trophies, the Panthers have been far from invincible.
If an Adam Reynolds sideline conversion was on target in 2021 or the Broncos held their nerve down the stretch last year, these Panthers could have ended up like Manly in the mid 1990s or the Roosters a decade later with just one premiership to show for three consecutive GF appearances.
Penrith cannot afford to go into these playoffs at anything less than full commitment.
It’s been easily the toughest campaign of the decade with Cleary’s two hamstring tears and his shoulder problem ensuring they have never hit top gear.
But if the players have injuries or the salary cap pressure in their mental Rolodex as a readymade excuse for a finals exit, then the trophy will indeed be leaving Panthers HQ.
The win over the Titans sealed second spot so they have a path to the GF that bypasses Melbourne unless they slip up at home against the depleted Roosters in their Qualifying Final.
Dealing with Cleary’s shoulder concern is nothing new for Penrith.
Last year it was Luai who entered the playoffs with a similar injury, returning despite not being fully fit for the prelim final and getting through most of the GF before Jack Cogger came on to help Cleary stage their great comeback from 16 down.
On recent form, Melbourne are the team to beat but Penrith deserve to be considered the benchmark until the Storm or any other team proves otherwise.
There is an overwhelming expectation that those two teams will square off for the trophy on October 6 but the 1 vs 2 showdown is not as common as you might expect.
It’s only happened three times in the past decade and nine times all up in the 26 years of the NRL era.
The recent elevation of Jake Clifford to halfback ahead of Chad Townsend has given the Cowboys a late-season spark when it looked like they were in danger of not making the finals at all.
His booming kicking game was crucial in their 40-6 whipping of the Bulldogs on Saturday and if the refs maintain a high tempo in the finals it will play into the Cowboys’ hands.
Todd Payten’s team can match it with the big guns when points are flowing but if it’s a grind, their defence is not resolute enough to withstand sustained pressure.
Manly similarly have plenty of points in them but can blow hot and cold even more so than the Cowboys.
Cronulla and Canterbury want a grind in the finals. It’s their best chance of overcoming the odds to get past the top two while the Roosters are banking on a siege mentality to overcome the odds that have blown out since Sam Walker, Victor Radley and Brandon Smith were seriously injured in the penultimate round.
Penrith love to be in control but this time around, their stranglehold on the premiership is nowhere near what it’s been the past few years.
Cleary, both the coach and the co-captain, give little away off the field, just like the NRL’s premier defensive unit does on the field.
If they can bring together an evolving team which has been in a state of flux all season long to emerge from the finals series with a fourth straight title it would be their most impressive premiership of the lot.