Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks mascot The Duck in the middle of the crowd storming the field after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images A wave of upsets and close calls in Week 11 led to dramatic changes in the second College Football Playoff rankings.
The evolving storylines heading into Week 12 include a former favorite to win it all in danger of missing the field, Nick Saban’s continued influence on the playoff even in retirement, and the intriguing race for the fifth automatic bid.
Big Ten and SEC Manifest Destiny Already Paying Dividends
Through the second week of rankings, the expanded playoff looks like an SEC vs. Big Ten invitational. The two leagues combine for eight of the 12 spots—four apiece—while no other conference has more than one.
The ACC has Miami in the field despite the Hurricanes’ Week 11 loss to Georgia Tech, and independent Notre Dame plays a schedule heavy on ACC competition as part of the Fighting Irish’s membership in the league for other sports.
This was very much the plan of both Big Ten and SEC brass when enacting aggressive expansion plans in recent years, and it’s perhaps fitting that the top-ranked teams representing each conference are newcomers. Texas sits in one of the coveted top-four spots as the SEC championship representative, and Oregon is again No. 1 overall as the Big Ten representative.
Week 12 is Make or Break for Georgia
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) throws a touchdown pass to Georgia wide receiver Rara Thomas (5) during the first half of a NCAA college football game against Kentucky in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. credits: Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK Not included among the quartet of SEC teams currently in the field is overwhelming preseason favorite Georgia—and with good reason. Ole Miss deservedly jumped the Bulldogs on the strength of its head-to-head win in Week 11, but just as significant is how lopsided the 28-10 contest played out.
Against Ole Miss, for a half at Alabama, and in lackluster wins over struggling conference opponents Kentucky and Mississippi State, Georgia has not looked like a national championship contender.
Quality wins over Clemson and Texas keep the Bulldogs in striking distance at No. 12 overall and as the first team out. However, the stakes for Week 12 and Tennessee’s visit Between The Hedges could not be higher.
A win gets Georgia back into the field, and presumably into a first-round home game. Another loss may not eliminate the Bulldogs entirely from consideration—but it should.
Is It About the Name on the Front of the Jersey?
Oct 19, 2024; Stanford, California, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) walks off of the field after defeating the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images SMU is undefeated in the ACC with a Top 25 win—the same Top 25 win Miami (of the ACC) boasts, against Louisville. The Mustangs’ sole loss came to Big 12-leading BYU, which remained in the field after its incredible comeback and one-point win over rival Utah.
Miami’s loss, meanwhile, came against unranked Georgia Tech.
Warde Manuel, addressing reporters on behalf of the selection committee, said that they “looked at their body of work as it relates to who they played and how they played those games during the season.”
In other words, how SMU has won matters, and it’s weighed alongside how they’ve played. The same is true of Boise State, which Manuel cited specifically at No. 13 after having squeaked by a struggling Nevada team by seven points.
Coincidentally, SMU eked out a five-point win over Nevada back in Week 1. With the exception of an overtime win over Duke and a 34-27 defeat of Louisville—the same margin of victory against the Cardinals as Miami had—SMU has generally controlled its games.
“We’ve been impressed by both,” Manuel said when comparing SMU and Miami. “Just based on their body of work, the committee had the discussions, and the feeling was that Miami was ahead of SMU in terms of their performance this year.”
The good news for the Mustangs is that if they continue to win, they’ll get the opportunity to take the decision out of the subjective opinions of the committee and any influence program prestige might have.
What is Boise State’s Ceiling?
Nov 9, 2024; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) runs the ball against Nevada Wolf Pack safety Kitan Crawford (4) during the first quarter at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images Boise State’s only loss this season is to No. 1-ranked Oregon, and it came down to the wire. The Broncos also dominated in their sole Top 25 win, a 45-24 rout of No. 18 Washington State.
But with no other Mountain West Conference teams ranked in the Top 25, Boise State may not have an opportunity to add another resume-building win to bolster its current position as the last team in the field.
In fact, the Broncos are in a precarious spot as it stands, competing for the fifth automatic bid for conference champions. No. 24-ranked Army has eighth-ranked Notre Dame coming up on Nov. 23, as well as a potential American Athletic Conference championship matchup with Tulane, which debuted at No. 25.
In a scenario where Army upsets Notre Dame and wins the AAC title against a ranked Tulane team, could the Cadets jump the Broncos as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion? It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
While focusing primarily on winning out, Boise State fans might also become vocal supporters of Oregon and Washington State to maintain their place—and for UNLV to win out and potentially crack the Top 25 for a ranked Mountain West championship rematch.
Alabama vs. Indiana Sets Up an Intriguing Saban Bowl
Aug 31, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) scrambles behind blocking by offensive lineman Elijah Pritchett (57) during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports It’s unlikely the matchups we see five weeks from now will resemble those set up in the final bracket. That said, a first-round pairing of Alabama and Indiana would be a fun matchup that makes Nick Saban’s presence felt even in retirement.
The coaching luminary restored Alabama to prominence during his tenure, along the way providing springboards for other head coaches. One of them is Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, although Cignetti took a unique route.
A member of Saban’s initial Alabama staff, Cignetti took the head-coaching job at Indiana… of Pennsylvania, a Division II program, in 2011. From there, he had immediate success at Elon and James Madison, and now has the perennially downtrodden Indiana on the cusp of an improbable Playoff berth.
Cignetti stepped into a much different position when taking over at a longtime bottom feeder than Kalen DeBoer did at Alabama. Succeeding arguably the greatest coach of all time is no easy task, and this hasn’t been an entirely smooth debut season for DeBoer, a coach who, like Cignetti, has small-school credentials from his tenure at former NAIA school Sioux Falls.
But the Crimson Tide are on course for a Playoff berth, and the contrast in facing off with Indiana would make for a fun matchup with Saban’s fingerprints all over it.