It was still possible Saturday morning that the Mets won’t have to board a plane Sunday night and fly back to Atlanta for a makeup doubleheader Monday. But for that to happen, both of those teams need to sweep their games Saturday and Sunday – and then would still need help.
Before we lay out the possibilities, let’s update the wild-card standings after the Braves’ win Friday, plus losses by the Mets and Diamondbacks, left those teams essentially tied, at 16 games over .500
Braves — 87-71
Mets — 87-71
Diamondbacks — 88-72
So under most possible scenarios, the Mets and Braves would need to play at least one game Monday, and possibly both, to decide the final two teams in the National League playoff field. But what would have to happen to make those Monday games unnecessary? They are down to only two scenarios:
Braves and Mets both sweep — If the Braves win Saturday and Sunday against Kansas City and the Mets win Saturday and Sunday in Milwaukee, that puts pressure on the Diamondbacks. Then Arizona would also need to win each of its final two games, at home versus San Diego, to force the Mets and Braves to play Monday.
That’s because the Diamondbacks hold none of the possible two-team or three-team tiebreakers. So at worst, they need to finish their regular season Sunday in a virtual tie with at least one of the other two teams.
Diamondbacks lose two more — Or if the Diamondbacks lose out to San Diego both Saturday and Sunday, then the Mets and Braves would both need to win at least once to effectively eliminate Arizona.
If that’s how this plays out, the standings would look this way:
Braves — 88-72
Mets — 88-72
Diamondbacks — 88-74
If that were the case, Arizona wouldn’t be “mathematically” eliminated. But the Diamondbacks would be “effectively” eliminated, because they would lose out, via tiebreaker, in any two-team or three-team tie with the Braves and Mets.
In that scenario, it’s unlikely that MLB would require the Mets and Braves to play Monday, if the only thing at stake is seeding. And since the Braves now hold the tiebreaker against the Mets, they would be the No. 5 seed, and the Mets would be the No. 6 seed.
Because the other four NL playoff teams are set, the No. 6 seed will get matched against third-seeded Milwaukee in the Wild Card Series, with all three games in Milwaukee. The No. 5 seed would have to travel to fourth-seeded San Diego for all three games of the other NL Wild Card Series. (The NL’s top seed is still up for grabs between the Dodgers and Phillies.)
What the Mets, in particular, desperately want to avoid is the Max Chaos scenario — having to play one game Sunday in Milwaukee, two games Monday in Atlanta and possibly a playoff game Tuesday in San Diego. That would work out to four games in three days in three time zones.
But is that what lies ahead of them? Stay tuned — and keep your tiebreaker charts handy.
(Photo of Ramón Laureano and Francisco Alvarez: Jason Allen / Associated Press)