Of the first 30 picks in the 2024 MLB Draft — the true first round — 25 of those players were ranked in my top 31. There weren’t huge shocks, no non-top 100 types taken in the first round, no outrageous reaches, and for the most part the best guys went at the top of the draft.
Here’s my breakdown of each pick, along with the scouting report I prepared before the draft. You can check out my general observations on day one of the draft here.
1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
No. 2 on Law’s big board
They had the first pick and took one of the only two valid options in my opinion, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana. The Guardians then turned around and took a high school pitcher, Braylon Doughty, with their Competitive Balance Round A (CBA) pick at 36, which I assume will absorb much of the savings from what will probably be an under-slot deal with Bazzana. They followed up with NC State catcher Jacob Cozart, who quietly had a tremendous year at the plate for the Wolfpack, with their second-round pick (No. 48). I feel like they landed two everyday players at positions up the middle, and then took a sensible flier on a very good high school arm.
Scouting report: Bazzana made his professional debut, of sorts, as a 15-year-old in the Australian Baseball League, the same circuit where many minor leaguers go in the winter to gain some extra at-bats or innings, and then played as an 18-year-old in the wood-bat West Coast League against college players, hitting .429/.471/.593. The Australian has starred for Oregon State for the last three years, setting the career hits record for the Beavers before his junior season wrapped up, while also destroying the school’s single-season home run record, which was 21 homers before Bazzana crossed the Pacific to take the crown.
He starts with an exaggerated setup where he’s holding the bat behind his rear shoulder, pointing down, similar to Kevin Parada’s weird setup at Georgia Tech, but by the time Bazzana starts bringing his front leg down his hands are already in position, and he’s pretty short to the ball despite the odd start. His plate discipline might be the best in the class, as he rarely chases anything outside the zone and doesn’t whiff much in or out of the zone or on any single pitch type. He’s listed at 6-feet, 199, but is probably a bit shorter than that, and what you see is likely what you get — there’s no projection here, so you have to believe his present hit and power tools are good enough.
It’s second base only, which isn’t a favored demographic in the draft, although I would say in Bazzana’s case that’s really nitpicking because his bat is more than enough to give him All-Star upside if he’s just an average defender at the keystone. He’s a great story and a tremendous worker who seems both likely to and capable of making adjustments when he needs to do so, and may have the highest floor of the college bats in the class.
Chase Burns was ranked as the top pitcher in the class by Keith Law. (Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
2. Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
No. 5 on Law’s big board
The Reds go with the best pitcher in the class, in my opinion, in Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns, who left the eventual national champs Tennessee and took a huge step forward on the mound for the Deacons, leading Division 1 in strikeouts with 30 more than any other pitcher this year.
I had Burns ranked fifth on my board just because of the risk associated with pitching, but he was the best starter available, college or high school, and the Reds could certainly use him in the majors soon.
I also believe this is the first time in draft history that neither of the first two picks was born in the United States (Bazzana was born in Australia and Burns in Italy).
Scouting report: Burns was 37th on my Big Board for the 2021 Draft, but ended up asking for more money than teams were willing to pay him, so he headed to Knoxville, where he starred his freshman year but was kicked out of the rotation his sophomore year. When the Vols wouldn’t guarantee him a starting spot for his junior year, he transferred to Wake Forest, where he’s been the best starting pitcher in Division 1, striking out over 40 percent of batters he’s faced with a devastating one-two punch of a fastball up to 100 and a grade-70 slider that hitters miss nearly 2/3 of the time they try to hit it. The slider has a late, tight break in both planes, making it effective against hitters on both sides of the plate, while he gets big induced vertical break on the four-seamer, which is how he has success throwing those two pitches about 80 percent of the time. He can spin an above-average curveball for a different look and has a straight changeup with some modest tumble, clearly his worst pitch of the four.
There’s effort in the delivery, with some head-snap and recoil at release, and the high three-quarters slot is deceptive but not ideal for long-term durability. The mechanical questions haven’t hurt his command or control, as he’s walked just 8 percent of batters (through May 13) and has shown he can pitch to the edges of the strike zone. I don’t think he’s far from being able to help a major-league club, especially after a dominant performance in one of the top two conferences in college baseball, with a No. 2 starter ceiling.
3. Colorado Rockies: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
No. 1 on Law’s big board
Rockies fans rejoice, as in my view they got the best prospect in the draft in Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon.
Condon is a very Rockies sort of player — tall, athletic, twitchy, the kind of kid who looks like he could pick up any sport and be good at it immediately. If he’s the player his fans in the industry think he is, he’ll be a franchise player for the Rox, wherever he ends up playing, whether it’s an outfield corner or third or, least likely, center.
There’s some irony in the Rockies taking Condon, whose only real knock was that he had a huge home/road split at Georgia.
Scouting report: Condon is easily the top prospect in this year’s draft class, and would be challenging for the top spot in many years — perhaps not 2023, but I wouldn’t rule it out, given the unbelievable year he’s had and the growth potential he may still have ahead of him. If you know Condon’s name, it may be because he set the modern record for homers in a single season, with the most home runs of any player since the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats in 2012, reducing exit velocities for safety and, I think, to make the college game look a little more like real baseball.
Condon does have power, but he’s a more complete player than that one stat alone implies. He changed his hand position after the summer of 2023, starting them a little higher, and that small adjustment completely loosened him up at the plate. He has explosive bat speed and now gets the bat to the zone with more force behind it because he’s so direct to the ball once he loads his hands. It’s hard to imagine more power coming, but Condon’s a lean, wiry 6-foot-6 and could get quite a bit stronger in pro ball. He also doesn’t swing and miss often or chase excessively. Even the slider down and away, a weakness for most hitters when it’s against a same-side pitcher, isn’t a huge vulnerability.
He’s a 55 runner now and capable of handling centerfield for the moment, while he’s also impressed scouts with his work at third base this spring despite a lack of any experience at the hot corner. He’ll probably start out as a third baseman and then move to the outfield if that doesn’t work out, with above-average defense in right field probably the worst-case scenario. His foundation of bat speed, plate discipline, hard contact, and athleticism point to a frequent All-Star ceiling, and they’re more than enough to make him the No. 1 prospect in this year’s class.
4. Oakland Athletics: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
No. 7 on Law’s big board
The A’s were linked to Kurtz for much of the spring and talk in the past week that his shoulder was scaring some teams off didn’t deter Oakland, who could use both his power and on-base skills — and soon.
Kurtz is one of the most disciplined hitters in the draft, and produced for three years in the ACC, with OBPs of .527 and .531 in the last two seasons, thanks to the highest walk rate in Division I this year.
Scouting report: Kurtz overcame a slow start to his junior year to set a career high in walks and approach his career high in homers (as of May 16), hitting more in line with his .353/.527/.784 sophomore year for the Deacons. Kurtz has an exceptional eye at the plate, with an overall chase rate around 16 percent and, more impressively, chase rates on breaking stuff at just 12 percent — that is, pitchers can’t just throw sliders or curveballs down and away when they’re ahead in the count and get him to expand the zone. He doesn’t swing much, but when he does, he shows excellent bat speed, and he hits the ball in the air the vast majority of the time, with several balls hit at 110 mph or harder this season.
The swing is a little Kyle Schwarber-ish, as he lets the ball travel a little and then unloads with that elite bat speed, looking for anything he can pull … and like Schwarber, he doesn’t offer much defensive value, as he’s first base-only and will at least need some work to get to average there. You’re buying a bat, and perhaps the best overall bat package of hit-patience-power in this draft. This profile is a tough one, though; Andrew Vaughn had a similar track record and skill set, even doing it in a less friendly home park at Cal, and he’s never come close to fulfilling his potential with the White Sox. Kurtz at least has better bat speed, with a similar foundation of patience and a touch more power, giving the hope that he can be the anchor bat Vaughn was supposed to become.
5. Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
No. 6 on Law’s big board
The White Sox take Hagen Smith, the top lefty in the draft class and an advanced starter whose 17-strikeout game against Oregon State in February had scouts saying it was one of the best pitching performances they had ever witnessed.
He offers the White Sox a little of both worlds — he could get to the majors very quickly as an SEC product with now stuff, but they didn’t leave anything on the table by taking him as he was miles ahead of the next pitcher still on the board.
Scouting report: Smith has improved every year at Arkansas, coming out very hot to start this year with a 17-strikeout performance against Oregon State in Week 2, after which he probably could have just taken the rest of the spring off and still gone in the top-10 picks. He’s 92-97 mph with a plus slider that he uses to left- and right-handed batters alike, with a changeup exclusively for right-handed batters. Because he starts on the extreme first-base side of the rubber, he doesn’t locate the fastball to his glove side and has to go to the slider to throw anything inside to righties, often trying to get a chase on a slider aimed at the hitter’s back foot, with the fastball and the changeup both going to the outer third of the zone.
It’s a funky delivery that he doesn’t hold together deep into his starts, and teams will be scrutinizing his mechanics even more closely because he’s already had one Tommy John surgery, back in high school. He takes a huge stride towards the plate to generate all that power, starting his arm late and then accelerating it very quickly, with a low three-quarters slot and arm path that have earned him some comparisons to Chris Sale. That’s a dream scenario, of course, as Sale improved the moment he got into the White Sox’s system and then threw about 1,000 innings before arm trouble began to hold him back. Smith has No. 2 starter upside if he can hold his stuff deeper into outings, and perhaps if he moves towards the middle of the rubber so he can work to both sides of the plate.
6. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
No. 8 on Law’s big board
The Royals get the biggest power bat in the draft in Jac Caglianone, who has 40-homer potential if he can rein in some of his aggressiveness at the plate.
Caglianone was a two-way player at Florida who was up to 99 as a left-handed starter with a power slider, but the consensus was that he’d be a reliever in the end and he’s already had one TJ; his ceiling is much higher as a bat, and I’ll be very curious to see if the Royals try him somewhere other than first base, as he’s a good enough athlete for an outfield corner and certainly has the arm for right.
Caglianone was announced as a two-way player, which is notable considering most scouts thought he’d just be a position player.
Scouting report: Caglianone has 80 power and has been up to 99 mph off the mound, so he might be the best-known player in this year’s draft class, but his pro prospects are a little different than the hype might indicate, as his future is in the batter’s box. As a hitter, it’s close to a dead-pull approach, more power than hit, and while the strikeout rate is way down from last year, he doesn’t have very good command of the strike zone, swinging nearly 40 percent of the time pitchers go outside of the zone, often chasing pitches way out of the zone, and he doesn’t cut it down with two strikes.
On the mound, he has arm strength, sitting mostly 93-97, and a decent changeup, but it’s a violent delivery where he comes way back across his body, a problem both for long-term arm health and for a pitcher’s ability to locate anything to his glove side. He’s already had one Tommy John surgery back in high school and had some kind of hiccup in the preseason this year before returning to the mound in Week 2. I think Caglianone is just a hitter and would be surprised if anyone tried to keep him a two-way guy, especially because he needs work on his approach and as a pitcher he’s a reliever at best. You’re betting on 40-homer upside here, and he has hit over 60 homers in his last two years for Florida, facing the best competition in the country.
7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
No. 3 on Law’s big board
The Cardinals have to be over the moon right now as they get a guy who was at least on the short list of 1-1 candidates coming into the spring, and only slid because he missed nearly two months with a hamstring injury — his second major one inside of a year.
JJ Wetherholt might have the best swing in the whole draft, though, and even when he was barely able to stand at shortstop he could still swing the bat and make hard contact. He’d probably move to second base regardless of organization, but with Masyn Winn a star, perhaps the Cardinals move Wetherholt now, which might also help keep him on the field.
Scouting report: Wetherholt came into the year on the short list of 1-1 candidates, but hurt his hamstring in Week 1 and missed enough time that he’s probably fallen out of that mix and could find himself in the back of the top 10. He can really, really hit though; it might be the best swing for contact in the class, and even when he was all but hitting on one leg he still got the bat to the ball consistently for line-drive contact. He’s very short and direct to the ball, and he doesn’t miss strikes — over the last two seasons, his whiff rate on pitches in the zone is around 6 percent, which looks like a typo. It’s just a simple, efficient swing, with one move back to load and then a rapid uncoiling at the ball that gets maximum impact from his upper and lower body.
What no one can tell you is whether he can stay healthy; this year’s hamstring injury was the second major one he’s suffered inside of 12 months, and it kept him off the field entirely for six weeks. Even in his return, we haven’t seen him run or field the way he could if he weren’t protecting the leg. He’s mostly played third and second for West Virginia but has only played shortstop this year when he’s played the field at all; I don’t know anyone who expects him to stay there in pro ball, but in all fairness to Wetherholt, no one has seen him play shortstop when healthy except for the very first weekend of the 2024 season. He’s also the smallest of the top college bats in the class, listed at 5-10 and perhaps, well, don’t we all exaggerate a little bit, who am I to judge?
You’re buying the hit tool here, and the hope that a full offseason of rest can get him out playing second base every day in 2025, with the upside of a 60 or better hit tool that makes him a very long time regular who makes a handful of All-Star teams.
8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
No. 37 on Law’s big board
This is a real reach for me, as I’m a relative skeptic on Christian Moore’s glove and bat relative to much of the industry. He did have a remarkable season for the national champs, though, hitting 34 homers as part of a .375/.451/.797 performance, with exit velocity numbers that rivaled Charlie Condon’s.
And he did it in the best conference in college baseball, facing some of the best pitchers that level could offer. I don’t think Moore can stick at second base, more likely moving to left field, and I have questions about how well his swing and setup will work with a wood bat and against better pitching.
The rumor all along has been that the Angels would take a college player and bring him to the majors this year, so it will be very interesting to see if the Angels try to keep him at second or move him to left to make the transition easier.
Scouting report: Moore led a loaded Tennessee squad that won the College World Series and could see four to six players drafted on Day 1, with five hitters clubbing 16 or more homers by the end of the regular season. He went on a huge tear to finish the regular season, with six homers in his last seven games, showing power against pretty much all pitch types. He started posting exit velocities of 115+ in Omaha with whatever juiced ball they were using up there, which is going to run him way up the boards for teams that rely heavily on batted-ball data in their draft models.
It’s not a pretty swing, however, with a super-wide setup and no stride, which makes me question whether the power will hold up with a wood bat, and in my in-person looks he struggled to pick up offspeed stuff. He’s a below-average defender at second and is most likely to end up in left field. The performance is going to push him into the first round, but the swing and the defense are real concerns.
Griffin was the first high-school player off the board on Sunday. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Miss.)
No. 10 on Law’s big board
This is the latest we’ve had the first high school selection ever in the June draft, going back to 1965; the previous low was No. 8 in the 2020 COVID draft. Griffin is a fascinating pick for the Pirates because he does something they’ve had a hard time developing, hit for power, but his only real weakness is something the Pirates have had success with, hitting for contact.
Griffin is a legitimate four-tool talent, perhaps a 70 in power, field, run, and throw, but the hit tool has been the main question on him all along. It’s a big swing for Pittsburgh but I think a prudent one given who’s on the board.
Scouting report: Griffin reclassified from the 2025 class to this one, a prescient decision given how weak this year’s high school crop has turned out to be, with Griffin likely to be the first or second prep position player selected. He’s a toolshed, with four 60s or better on the scouting report — it’s easy plus power, plus speed, a 70 arm (he also pitches), and plus defense in center, with the potential for plus defense at short, although that would require more work than just sending him out as a center fielder.
The question is how much he can hit; he did clean up his swing from the summer of 2023 to this spring and looked good in the first half of the year, but as the season went on he reverted to some old habits and his contact quality dipped. He has quick hands but his swing naturally gets long from his deep hand load, after which he generates power from his excellent hip rotation and strong balance through contact. He also hasn’t shown great command of the strike zone to date, and may need more time in the low minors to develop that aspect of his game, especially given where he’s from. The history of high school hitters signed out of Mississippi is very poor; Austin Riley is now the all-time WAR leader in that category at 19.0 WAR (as of mid-May), with a very high failure rate because the quality of competition in the state is so bad.
Griffin does have superstar upside — it’s 30/30 potential with plus defense somewhere up the middle — for a club that can develop his bat and has the patience to let him move at his own pace.
10. Washington Nationals: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
No. 17 on Law’s big board
I’d say this is the first real surprise for me — not that I dislike Seaver King, but I haven’t heard him once in the top 10 since my first mock in May. King transferred from Division II Wingate to Wake Forest this year and played both center and short for the Deacons, looking pretty competent at both positions, and his aggressive approach didn’t hold him back even in the ACC, as he struck out just over 12 percent of the time.
He does expand the zone more than you’d like and will have to tone that down as the pitching gets better. The Nats announced him as a shortstop, which is the best place to start him out, although I think he could play just about any skill position on the diamond except maybe catcher.
Scouting report: King transferred from Division II Wingate University to Wake Forest this spring after an impressive summer for Team USA and on the Cape, hitting .424/.479/.542 in 71 plate appearances at the latter stop. He’s a very aggressive hitter who doesn’t take a lot of pitches and doesn’t whiff very often, showing plus bat speed, surprising power, and above-average speed on the bases.
King’s played four positions for the Deacs, with third base his most frequently played spot. He’s more than capable in center and I think you could send him out as a shortstop. He does tend to expand the zone too often, as he’s a good enough bad-ball hitter to get away with it now.
11. Detroit Tigers: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS (Calif.)
No. 9 on Law’s big board
Rainer was the top high school guy on my board, as I think he offers more probability than the higher-ceiling Konnor Griffin. He’s a plus defender at short with a 70 arm, up to 95 off the mound, and showed more power this spring at the NHSI tournament, which I think really boosted his stock with teams.
The hit tool is probably his weakest one, as he has a strong approach and seems to recognize pitches well but doesn’t have great bat speed.
Scouting report: Rainer put on a show at the National High School Invitational this year, buoyed by the absence of any other first-round prospects at the event, and in the process probably locked himself into a top-10 pick. He’s by far the best high school infielder in the class, a plus defender at short with a 70 arm who is 93-94 off the mound as well (but, I’m told, doesn’t want to be a two-way guy, to which I say hallelujah). He also shows incredible instincts and leadership on the field.
Rainer’s got power, with good loft in his swing to drive the ball to all fields, but it’s not great bat speed and he’s struggled when facing above-average velocity. Everybody throws hard these days, so he’s going to have to find a way to catch up to it as he enters pro ball. The plus defense/20-homer potential is enough to get someone to roll the dice on his bat in the top third of the first round.
12. Boston Red Sox: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
No. 4 on Law’s big board
The Red Sox may have just gotten the steal of the draft so far, getting the fourth-ranked player on my board at pick 12. Montgomery was a first-round talent out of high school, went to Stanford as a two-way player, then transferred to Texas A&M this year and played right field exclusively before a broken ankle ended his season in June.
He hits the ball extremely hard, with a much better hit tool from the left side, with power there but a whiff rate of 38 percent. He’s got at least a 70 arm from right and should be at least a 55 defender there, assuming the ankle heals fully.
Scouting report: Montgomery made the somewhat surprising decision this offseason to transfer from Stanford to Texas A&M, but it has largely paid off as he improved his performance while facing better competition in the SEC. He was a first-round talent out of high school (No. 17 on my Big Board that year), but was strongly committed to college and also had to face the poor track record of high school position players from Mississippi.
Montgomery is a true switch-hitter, with better results hitting from the left side but plenty of bat speed from the right side as well. He uses the whole field better batting left-handed and his plate discipline is substantially better from that side. He’s got a cannon of an arm, and is technically a two-way player with two innings pitched this year, projecting as a solid-average defender in right. There’s some risk with the hit tool here, as his offspeed recognition isn’t great and he will expand the zone when behind in the count, but he has 30-homer upside as a switch-hitting right fielder if he makes enough contact for an average hit tool.
13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
No. 14 on Law’s big board
James Tibbs III was undrafted out of high school, and I don’t think anyone saw him as a first-rounder coming into the spring, but he had an incredible season for Florida State, walking quite a bit more than he struck out and boosting his maximum exit velocity to over 111 mph.
He’s limited to an outfield corner but seems to have more than enough hit/power to profile there, and should move pretty quickly through the low minors given his approach and experience in the ACC.
Scouting report: Tibbs was undrafted out of high school and I think largely ignored until this year, when he had more homers than strikeouts in the regular season and still finished with 28 homers and 37 punchouts along with 58 walks. He makes great swing decisions and his contact quality is strong, getting up over 110 mph for his maximum EV this spring after topping out at 105 last summer with wood.
He sets up with a wide base but still takes a small step forward to get his lower half involved, at least until he gets to two strikes, when he shortens up and omits the stride to trade power for contact. He has excellent bat speed and hasn’t had trouble with velocity. Tibbs is limited to an outfield corner, though, so he has to rake, but so far he’s done so at FSU and on the Cape.
14. Chicago Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
No. 19 on Law’s big board
Cam Smith really remade himself as a player this year, cleaning up his body so he could have a real chance to stick at third base and loosening up his hands to get to more bat speed, boosting his OBP by 162 points from 2023 and cutting his strikeout rate in nearly half, from 29 percent to 15 percent.
He’s another very polished college hitter a la Matt Shaw, and should similarly move quickly to Double A.
Scouting report: Smith reworked his swing and his body last offseason, bouncing back from a .258/.326/.517 line as a 20-year-old freshman at FSU to a .387/.488/.654 line as a draft-eligible sophomore, improving in every possible way as a hitter. He’s looser and more free at the plate, and at least subjectively it looks like his bat speed has increased. He’s always had a short path to the ball, so now he’s getting the bat to the zone sooner and with more force.
Smith did hit extremely well on the Cape last summer, with a .347/.407/.575 line that put him fourth in slugging percentage among hitters with at least 100 PA there. He’s played third base in Tallahassee but scouts think he ends up at first or perhaps in an outfield corner, where he still profiles as an above-average regular thanks to his combination of power and patience.
Cijntje can legitimately pitch with either arm. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP, Mississippi State
No. 15 on Law’s big board
Jurrangelo Cijntje is indeed a switch-pitcher, although he’s better right-handed, with a little more velocity, a cleaner delivery that gets him more online to the plate, and a complete arsenal including a changeup that lets him still pitch right-handed against some left-handed batters.
Born in the Netherlands and raised in Curaçao, Cijntje is extremely athletic and projects as at least a mid-rotation starter even just as a right-hander, although we don’t exactly have any good comps for him in baseball history because he can legitimately pitch with either arm.
Scouting report: We’ve had switch-pitchers before, but Cijntje is probably the best one to come along because he has good enough stuff throwing with either arm to at least create the potential for him to reach the majors as a true switch-pitch guy. He is a better pitcher right-handed, and chooses to throw with that arm over 80 percent of the time, even if he doesn’t have the platoon advantage; the delivery is smoother and way more online to the plate, while he throws a bit harder right-handed and he has a more complete arsenal. Left-handed, which is his natural side, he comes across his body, loses about 2 mph off the fastball, and doesn’t show a changeup or curve, just going fastball-slider-cutter.
The Dutch native is extremely athletic and throws plenty of strikes with both arms. There’s an unusual added risk here, as that’s two UCLs to break, two labrums to tear, and so on, so regardless of his ultimate role he’ll likely develop primarily as a right-handed starter. He has No. 2 starter upside with a little longer to go than the typical college pitcher, as he’s been trying to develop as a switch-pitcher, while he’s just a sophomore who didn’t pitch that much last year.
16. Miami Marlins: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (S.C.)
No. 44 on Law’s big board
PJ Morlando came into the year as a potential top 5 pick but changed his swing and setup to try to cut down on strikeouts, a change that unfortunately cut off much of his game power and I think limited how much scouts could even see his athleticism at the plate.
He does have huge raw power and the exit velocities to prove it, while he was limited to left field this spring as he wasn’t throwing well enough for the other outfield spots.
The Marlins think he’s got enough speed to handle center and he’ll start his pro career there.
Scouting report: Morlando has raw power, but hits with the widest stance at the plate that you have ever seen, with no stride or toe-tap or anything to get his lower half moving, so he isn’t showing the same power in games and it’s hard to see him profiling in left field, where he’s limited by a 40 arm. He hit extremely well last summer at showcases, barely ever missing anything in the zone, with strong hand-eye, allowing the plus power to show up in games, so prior to the season teams drafting in the top-10 assumed he’d be in their decision set — or already gone. Morlando is the most obvious swing-change candidate in the draft; if someone signs him away from his commitment to South Carolina, the first thing they’ll do is unglue his feet from where they are in the batter’s box. If he goes to Columbia, he’ll be draft-eligible in 2026 as he’s already 19.
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Braylon Payne, OF, Lawrence E. Elkins HS (Texas)
No. 78 on Law’s big board
Braylon Payne is still 17, and the Brewers do lean heavily on a draft model that factors age into its rankings, and he’s a great athlete with 70 speed who has a ton of physical projection. He’s still pretty lean and doesn’t make much hard contact yet, but you can easily see him adding enough muscle to that frame to end up at least an average power guy.
He will need to do some of that to become a regular, even if it’s just a matter of making hard enough contact so pitchers can’t knock the bat out of his hands. I do love the athleticism and thought he’d be a first-rounder if he went to college and just naturally filled out.
Scouting report: Payne doesn’t turn 18 until mid-August, so he’ll be a darling of analytical models — if you wanted to take a random stab at a player Cleveland could target for an over-slot deal with their second or third pick, he’d be a good guess — and does offer plus-plus speed. He’s underdeveloped physically and his swing is weak and slappy, putting the ball on the ground most of the time with no real ability to drive the ball because he hasn’t filled out enough yet.
The contact game can work with his elite speed, but he has to show he’s strong enough to turn on good velocity and to drive the ball to the gaps. He’s committed to Houston and could end up a first-rounder if he goes there and packs some strength on his 6-2 frame.
18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, OF, Westlake HS (Texas)
No. 21 on Law’s big board
Theo Gillen earned raves as probably the best pure high school hitter in the draft class, with a swing that scouts loved and that can flash 55 power in BP.
He’s also a plus-plus runner who could play just about anywhere on the diamond if he had the arm, but after labrum surgery he didn’t throw well all spring; I think centerfield might be the best-case scenario for him. It’s a classic leadoff profile, with hit, speed, and up-the-middle defense if the OBP skills are there.
Scouting report: Gillen is a 70 runner with a great, direct left-handed swing that’s perfect for an all-fields, high-contact approach like he showed last summer and fall. He can show above-average raw power in BP, but in games he’s a hitter for contact and average, which could be an area for development as he learns when to try to drive the ball and when to shorten up and put it in play. He’s played mostly shortstop but had labrum surgery as a sophomore and could barely throw this spring, so he could end up in centerfield, where his speed could make him a plus defender, or second base — or, worst case scenario, in left. He’s one of the best high school bats in this generally thin class, and if a team thinks he can handle centerfield even with a 40 arm, he’s a top 20 pick.
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
No. 18 on Law’s big board
Carson Benge was a two-way guy at Oklahoma State but his future is as a hitter; he really stood out to teams that look ‘under the hood,’ with very strong exit velocities and high hard-hit rates, although he can get too handsy and slap the ball on the ground when he should be looking to drive it.
He’s a plus defender in right with at least a 70 arm and was 93-95 in relief for the Cowboys, although he’s already had TJ once and will only go out as a position player. It’s big offensive upside now that he’s focused on one thing, especially if the Mets can get him to make some very small tweaks to the approach.
Scouting report: Benge is a tremendous athlete who also pitched in relief for the Cowboys, with his pro future in the batter’s box because he has great bat speed, makes excellent swing decisions, and produces hard contact. His swing is slappy, though, and he meets the ball out front too often, with relatively low launch angles as a result, making him a great target for a team that has had success helping guys who can really hit turn that into more line-drive contact. He did hit 18 homers this spring, but, well, so did half the players in Division I.
He’s a strong defender in right with a plus arm who was 93-95 out of the bullpen with a plus curveball, so there’s always the fallback option of putting him on the mound if his bat doesn’t develop as hoped.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
No. 13 on Law’s big board
Trey Yesavage was rumored to be going as high as No. 8 a few months ago, but ends up with the Jays, who get one of the most major-league ready starting pitchers in the class. Yesavage’s splitter is a wipeout pitch and often shows breaking ball-like movement, while he’s got plenty of fastball and uses those two pitches against each other to work north-south, even getting hitters out multiple times in the same game with that formula.
He has a very short arm action that some teams didn’t love, although he hasn’t had a major arm injury, unlike several other top pitching prospects in this class. He should start next year no lower than Double A or he’ll just carve up A-ball hitters.
Scouting report: Yesavage has a super-short arm action but makes it work, throwing a ton of strikes with his four-seamer and a nasty splitter that has both the typical heavy bottom of that pitch and some run that can make it look like a downward-breaking slider. Whatever you call it, it’s a wipeout pitch for him. He does throw an actual breaking ball but it’s a clear third pitch, with the splitter his go-to weapon for hitters on both sides of the plate.
If you don’t mind or care about the short arm action, the question is whether he can be a successful major-league starter as a fastball/splitter guy. I think he can as long as he holds up. He did miss a couple of starts in late May with a collapsed lung but returned to make one start in the Regional.
21. Minnesota Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
No. 30 on Law’s big board
I loved Kaelen Culpepper’s swing, and he’s worked hard on his defense to make him a no-doubt shortstop. He came out strong to start the year and definitely helped himself at the end, with some great swing and hard-hit balls in the super regional at UVA, but some teams were scared off by the plate discipline, with higher chase and whiff rates than you’d like, and the good-not-great exit velocity numbers. If you’re into drafting athletes with good swings who play up the middle, though, this is your guy.
Scouting report: Culpepper has one of the best swings in the class, and if he can just deploy it a little less often, he’s going to be a strong regular. When he’s swinging at strikes, he’s very quick and direct to the ball and gets good loft in his finish for at least extra-base power, hitting hard line drives to all fields and even flashing a little power the other way. He’s shown he can stay at shortstop, and can cut down on his swing enough with two strikes to keep his strikeout rate low even with too much chasing out of the zone earlier in the count. It’s the chase that’s killing him with some model-heavy teams; he swung at 31 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, per data from Synergy Sports, a little more so on offspeed stuff.
He did finish very strongly, with excellent performances and batted-ball characteristics in the Regional and Super Regional against good competition. He projects to average power and is an average runner, with good range at short and enough arm to stay there. I think his flaws are the kind that the right player development group can address, with strengths that make him a first-round talent, but some teams will just be out on him entirely because of his approach.
22. Baltimore Orioles: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
No. 41 on Law’s big board
The Orioles seemed like Vance Honeycutt’s best bet to get into the first round off a down year, especially since they took Jud Fabian, a player with a similar profile, in the second round two years ago. Honeycutt is a 70 or 80 defender in center and has 70 raw power; when he gets a hold of one, it’s a beautiful swing that you can easily see putting 30+ balls over the fence each year.
He struck out 83 times this year, though, which I believe is a record for a first-round pick; he had more strikeouts than hits (81) and whiffed on nearly 32 percent of his swings. It’s an all-around issue, with chase and in-zone miss, and I don’t think it’s an easy fix. It’s a top 5 sort of upside, though, and the Orioles are among the few teams that can easily stomach the high risk of a pick like this one.
Scouting report: Honeycutt is a 70 defender with 70 power, but even with a midseason swing change to raise his hands, he still struck out too often — even whiffing in-zone — to be a first-rounder for me. He takes a solid stride but doesn’t plant that front leg strongly until well after he’s gotten his hands started, so he ends up with a pretty severe uppercut on far too many of his swings. When he does get the front leg down in time and stays more upright through contact, though, it’s easy power even to dead center.
His bigger issue is pitch and ball/strike recognition, as he swung and missed on nearly a third of the pitches he saw, including a 21 percent whiff rate on pitches in the zone. It’s 30-homer potential in a potentially elite defender in center — I’ve had scouts say he’s at least as good as 2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr., on defense — so there’s clear appeal for a team looking for high upside. He’s a project for the right player development department.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (Fla.)
No. 22 on Law’s big board
Apparently the Dodgers are all about speed now, taking an 80 runner last year with their first pick in Kendall George, now taking another 80 runner this year in Kellon Lindsey. Lindsey is a shortstop with a great, athletic frame, earning comps to a young Trea Turner, but between football and some minor injuries he barely played last summer or fall, so scouts didn’t see him against better competition and R&D departments had very little data to work with.
That could be an opportunity for the Dodgers; if Lindsey had hit well in showcases, he might have ended up in the top high school tier with Rainer and Griffin. I think he’s a true shortstop but some folks want to move him to center to take advantage of his speed.
Scouting report: Nobody wants to miss on the next Trea Turner, and Lindsey looks the part — it’s a similar build, 80 speed, good hands, a good right-handed swing, etc. Turner had three years of success in the ACC, however, while Lindsey has faced some weak competition in central Florida and has had issues with breaking stuff. Lindsey has quick hands at the plate and gets the bat to the ball on time, with a good swing path to drive the ball to the gaps. His pitch recognition definitely lags behind the rest of his game at the plate, however, as he has far less experience facing good pitching than just about all of his peers in this draft after he missed the showcase circuit last summer due to injury.
He’s an outstanding athlete who was a quarterback and defensive back before he gave it up to focus just on baseball, and recorded the best running times at the MLB combine in June. I saw strong defense at shortstop, and he probably starts out there in pro ball, with the obvious potential to move to center at some point given his speed. He’s a huge upside play with a ton of downside risk in the bat.
Caminiti was the first high-school pitcher off the board on Sunday. ( Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
24. Atlanta Braves: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (Ariz.)
No. 27 on Law’s big board
I think this is the latest we’ve ever had our first high school pitcher selected, but Atlanta got the best one of the class. Cam Caminiti — a cousin of the late Ken Caminiti — is a super-athletic lefty who sits mid-90s with good feel for a changeup, and saw his breaking ball improve over the year from arguably a grade-35 pitch before the season to one scouts were saying was above-average by the end.
He reclassified from the 2025 draft into this one, a smart move not just financially but baseball-wise, as he’s clearly ready for pro ball, with a solid delivery that should allow him to throw plenty of strikes, and he’s still got a lot of projection left to his body to see him developing into a pitcher who can handle a higher workload — whatever that may look like these days.
Scouting report: The cousin of the late Padres star Ken Caminiti, Cam is the top high school pitcher on the board, having reclassified from 2025 into this year’s weaker overall class. He’s up to 97 with a curveball that’s gone from a 35 early in the spring to a 50 or 55 now along with an easy plus changeup that has been a 70 in some outings. He’s a two-way player who is extremely athletic, working a solid delivery that’s become much more online to the plate than it was last summer and fall. As high school pitchers go, he’s got the best combination of present ability and future projection, with the typical risks of 18-year-olds and pitchers in general.
25. San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS (Okla.)
No. 31 on Law’s big board
Kash Mayfield rivaled Caminiti for the title of best high school lefty in the draft. Mayfield wins on size and velocity but may be a touch behind in overall stuff. He’s pretty physical already and doesn’t seem to have a lot of effort in his delivery, even with the velocity and the ride on his four-seamer. He has a slider and changeup, both with promise, although neither is a consistently plus pitch yet, with the slider the better of the two. He’s already 19 and would have been draft-eligible again in 2026 had he gone to Oklahoma State.
Scouting report: Mayfield is 93-98 with an above-average slider and good feel for a changeup, with surprisingly low effort for that kind of arm strength. He also gets solid ride on the four-seamer and repeats his delivery well enough to project future above-average command, although he can cut himself off slightly in his landing, starting all the way on the third base side of the rubber and then planting his front foot on the first-base half of the mount.
If he were a college pitcher, he’d be a top-10 pick in this class; he’s already 19 and will be sophomore-eligible if he ends up at Oklahoma State, so he has plenty of leverage to demand a first-round bonus.
26. New York Yankees: Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
No. 24 on Law’s big board
Ben Hess was one of the most underrated starters in the draft class in my view, getting very little first-round buzz despite a full arsenal with multiple 55s or better and a big extension out over his front side. He may need to develop his changeup more, and I like that he added a two-seamer to keep hitters off the four-seamer as the season went on.
Alabama used him mostly for five-inning starts until late in the season, and in the postseason he pitched into the seventh a few times and held 94-95. I think he’s a mid-rotation starter.
Scouting report: Hess might be a starter at the next level, with the delivery and arsenal to do so, if he can hold his stuff deeper into games. The Tide only had him get more than 16 outs three times during the regular season, in his last three starts, when he did actually hold his velocity extremely well, still hitting 94-95 later in the outings. He’s mostly fastball-slider-curve, with an occasional changeup to lefties, and he’s added a two-seamer to the mix after going heavy with the four-seam earlier in the season.
He takes a huge stride towards the plate and finishes way out over his front side for maximum extension from his strong 6-5 frame. You can easily dream on him as a mid-rotation, workhorse starter, if you can get past the limited track record.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Dante Nori, OF, Northville HS (Mich.)
No. 67 on Law’s big board
Dante Nori was one of the oldest high school players in the draft class, as he’ll turn 20 in October, but he’s an outstanding athlete who’s an 80 runner and a 70 defender in center. He didn’t face much good competition in Michigan, and he sets up with a very wide stance that doesn’t let him get much power from his legs; I could see the Phillies getting more juice out of him just by loosening him up and getting him some kind of stride so he can rotate his hips more.
They’ve hit on their last two first-round picks, Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller, both high school hitters with big tools, and Miller was also 19 on draft day, so they seem to have a type.
Scouting report: Nori will turn 20 in October, so he’s very old for a high school prospect and would be draft-eligible again in 2026 if he ends up at Mississippi State. He’s an 80 runner with some feel to hit and plus defense already in center, maybe trending towards a 70 grade. He has bat speed and the strength to get to average power, although models are going to downgrade his production because of his age and the weak competition he’s facing in Michigan.
I don’t love the Jeff Bagwell stance he uses, which seems to be the trend this year — whoever started that, knock it off, Bagwell’s a Hall of Famer and most guys can’t hit like he did starting out with their legs wide enough to drive a semi through. I could be underselling Nori’s future power as a result, as he’s a great athlete and might find more juice if he could use his hips and legs more.
28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
No. 23 on Law’s big board
Janek was the best defensive catcher in the college crop this year and maybe the best in the draft, with some scouts saying he was above-average and others saying he was easily plus. He’s got a simple gap-to-gap approach with some pull power and — I hope you’re sitting down — an actual two-strike approach, something I thought I would only see in the Smithsonian.
He could end up a 20-homer guy with strong on-base skills and plus defense at a critical position, which would make him a very valuable regular and a great pick as the Astros try to rebuild their system.
Scouting report: Janek has emerged as the top catcher in the class, which may be damning with faint praise but also reflects the fact that he’s mashed and has shown he can stick behind the plate. He jumped to a .364/.476/.709 line this year for the Bearkats, finishing just a thousandth of a point off the Conference USA lead in slugging behind a senior who played for New Mexico State (altitude 3900 feet).
It’s a simple gap-to-gap approach with pull power and some ability to go the other way for contact, along with a two-strike approach that sees him focus on putting the ball in play. He has the hands and the arm strength to catch, close to average right now with the chance to be a 55 defender all around with some coaching help, offering the upside of a 20-homer bat at a position where offense is scarce.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (Ark.)
No. 12 on Law’s big board
Caldwell earned raves for his work ethic and competitiveness, as well as his feel to hit, with one of the better bat-to-ball skills in the class and good contact quality for his age.
He’s pretty undersized, and some teams were concerned that there was zero projection left in the body, meaning what you see in his bat is what you get, probably below-average power in the end, so you have to hope he hits .300+ with a strong walk rate.
I do think he will, and that he’ll do it as a plus defender in center.
Scouting report: Caldwell won’t go this high in the draft because he’s 5-foot-5 1/2; if he were 6-1, he’d be a top-15 pick for sure, with three tools that are or project to plus. He’s got a short swing (ha ha) and makes a ton of contact, with fringy power, and he’s a plus runner who covers enough ground in center to project to stay there, even with a 45 arm. The impact with the bat is the question — if you think he’ll hit the ball hard enough to keep his batting average up, he projects as a strong regular. If you don’t think he will, you’ll probably just run, run away.
30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
No. 25 on Law’s big board
Malcolm Moore was a darling of models this year, as his batted-ball data was very strong and his baseball-card stats belied his true talent level as a hitter. He walked more than he struck out and still got to 16 homers, but had a .229 BABIP despite an above-average Barrel rate and strong exit velocities.
Scouts were mixed on whether he’d stick as a catcher, but I didn’t hear anyone say he absolutely couldn’t do it physically, just that he needed a lot of work and could end up at first base.
If he’d posted a triple-slash line commensurate with his batted-ball data, he would have been a top-15 pick.
Scouting report: Moore, a draft-eligible sophomore, is going to end up with a team that values batted-ball data over performance — he had terrible luck at the plate this spring but he was not punching out and his contact quality points to a higher average than he had on balls in play. Moore hit .255/.414/.553 for the Cardinal with just a .229 BABIP, a full hundred points down from his BABIP as a freshman, even though he makes plenty of hard contact.
There was a little more than bad luck at work here, to be fair; he put a lot of non-strikes in play and had worse results on those pitches than he did on pitches in the zone, so there’s a pitch selection aspect to his performance as well. He has great bat speed and had no trouble with elite velocity the few times he saw this spring. Moore is a below-average defender right now and scouts are mixed on whether he can stay at catcher; the arm is the worst tool here and his other deficiencies could improve with different coaching. He’s going to be a bat-first catcher if he stays there.
(Top photo of Rob Manfred with Cardinals’ first-round pick JJ Wetherholt: Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)