Jun 2, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles outfielder Austin Hays (21) runs toward first base during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-USA TODAY Sports The MLB trade deadline has not yet arrived, and already there has been a deal among clubs that could end up meeting in the World Series and another among teams that might not even make it to October.
There are no hard and fast rules here, and there is no way to predict success with 100 percent certainty when it comes to personnel swaps, only recognition of a need and a well-educated guess on a player’s future value.
When it comes to championship contenders, the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have done some heavy trade lifting so far, while the Tampa Bay Rays have been a busy seller while still not completely ruling out a playoff berth.
Grading the top 2024 deadline deals so far:
Phillies acquire: OF Austin Hays. Orioles acquire: RHP Seranthony Dominguez, OF Cristian Pache
Perhaps the real judge of this deal will be in the World Series if both teams continue down their current paths. The Phillies managed a moderate upgrade to their outfield and did it from a strength: their bullpen. Hays still appears to be in line for a part-time role and an insurance policy in case of injury or unforeseen struggles elsewhere. Dominguez gives the Orioles a power arm with 15 games of playoff experience, while Pache has 18 games of playoff experience.
Phillies: C
Orioles: B-
Orioles acquire: RHP Zach Eflin. Rays acquire: OF Matthew Etzel, RHP Jackson Baumeister, INF/OF Mac Horvath
Jun 22, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin (24) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports It makes sense that the two most active teams at the deadline get together on a deal. In need of starting help, the Orioles know as well as anybody that you can never have enough starting pitching and land a good one in Eflin, who has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts after a 3.50 mark in 31 starts last season.
In a theme for the Orioles, Eflin has 11 games of playoff experience. Maybe the Rays are sacrificing their playoff hopes this year, but did they really have a team that could survive the postseason meat grinder? Now, their near future looks extremely bright.
Orioles: B
Rays: B+
Yankees acquire: OF/INF Jazz Chisholm Jr. Marlins acquire: C Agustin Ramirez, INF Abrahan Ramirez, INF Jared Serna
Jazz Chisholm Jr. was traded from the Miami Marlins to the New York Yankees. Photo source: AP Amid a swoon that began in the middle of June, the Yankees landed a player in Chisholm who can be dynamic on offense at times and will provide versatility on defense. Chisholm won’t reach free agency until 2027, so it is a shrewd move as well, but it does come at a cost. The Marlins now have a legitimate catcher of the future in Agustin Ramirez.
Yankees: B
Marlins: A
Mariners acquire: Randy Arozarena. Rays acquire: OF Aidan Smith, RHP Brody Hopkins, PTBNL
Jul 20, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) watches his two run home run against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports The Mariners are fading fast, so adding a young player who has been elite at times and has been through the playoff ringer was the prudent move.
Arozarena will help an offense that needs a spark, and could be in line for a lift of his own amid a season not quite up to expectations. When the Rays make moves, pay especially close attention to the pitchers they land. Hopkins is a former sixth-round pick who has a 2.90 ERA in 18 starts at Single-A Modesto. Smith projects as a speedy center fielder with solid power.
Mariners: A-
Rays: B
Cubs acquire: INF Isaac Paredes. Rays acquire: INF Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, RHP Ty Johnson
Jul 28, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes (17) fields a ground ball in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs have plenty of work to do to land a wild-card spot, so they managed some off-field hustle. Paredes is a solid upgrade over Morel, although his 16 home runs and .793 OPS don’t quite match his numbers from last season. Morel has 18 home runs but a .676 OPS, while that mark was .821 last season.
If Morel has a strong close to the season and Bigge and Johnson can deliver, the Rays will have done it again on the trade market. For now, though, the Cubs got better.
Cubs: B+
Rays: B-
Padres acquire: RHP Jason Adam. Rays acquire: RHP Dylan Lesko, OF Homer Bush Jr., C J.D. Gonzalez
Jun 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Jason Adam (47) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports It’s not just that the Padres have solidified their wild-card standing, they have also improved their chances to catch the injury-plagued Dodgers’ for the division title. Adam boosts a bullpen that could use a lift at this point. But give it to the Rays for landing three players with serious upside and doing it for a reliever.
Padres: B
Rays A-
Phillies acquire: RHP Carlos Estevez. Angels acquire: RHP George Klassen, LHP Samuel Andegheri
May 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher Carlos Estevez (53) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros during the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports From an All-Star last season to a 2.39 ERA this year, Estevez had 51 combined saves for the Angels going back to the start of 2023. And he could end up the closer in Philadelphia, even among a strong group of relievers.
The Angels knew Estevez likely would not be back next season, so landing two of the Phillies’ better pitching prospects was a no-brainer.
Phillies: B+
Angels: A