DALLAS – From Henry Owens to Blake Swihart, Michael Chavis to Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox prospects routinely are overhyped. Just ask the Chicago White Sox how things worked out the last time they traded a star pitcher to the Red Sox for four ballyhooed minor leaguers.
The return for Chris Sale in Dec. 2016 was third baseman Yoán Moncada, whose career is largely a disappointment; pitcher Michael Kopech, who also has yet to make an All-Star team; outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe, who appeared in only nine major-league games; and pitcher Victor Diaz, who never reached the majors.
So while the Red Sox and some of their fans might fret that the price for White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet was four of their top 14 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, what else were the Red Sox going to do?
After getting burned on nine-figure contracts for Sale and David Price, Red Sox owner John Henry is reluctant to award long-term deals to pitchers, according to sources briefed on his thinking. Perhaps his hesitancy will extend to an extension for Crochet, who is under club control for two more seasons. But the Red Sox are so deep in young talent, they cannot possibly fit all of their prospects onto future 26-man rosters. So for them, Wednesday’s trade for Crochet was a move that made perfect sense.
Crochet, 25, projects to earn between $10 million and $15 million in his final two years of arbitration, leaving the Red Sox in position for at least one big free-agent splurge. Their focus remains pitching, according to a source briefed on their discussions.
Free-agent right-hander Corbin Burnes likely will command a deal of more than $200 million, likely moving beyond Henry’s comfort level. But free agent left-hander Sean Manaea and righty Jack Flaherty remain available, as does righty Nick Pivetta, who rejected the Sox’s qualifying offer. A trade for Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo, who is owed $68.25 million the next three years, could be another option. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Red Sox, even after adding Crochet, were talking to the Mariners about pitching.
Free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman does not seem to be a priority at the moment. If the Sox want a third baseman, perhaps they can trade for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, a right-handed hitter who might be willing to waive his no-trade clause to take aim at the Green Monster and reunite with his former Colorado Rockies teammate, Trevor Story. Or perhaps they will address their need by adding a right-handed hitting outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or switch-hitter Anthony Santander.
Crochet was a necessary first step. Now the Red Sox can figure out the rest.
And about the White Sox…..
Every trade for prospects is a risk. Skepticism about the Red Sox’s “next big things” is warranted. Still, the initial industry response to the White Sox’s four-player haul for Crochet seemed positive. Certainly more positive than the reaction to their return for Kopech, righty Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham in a three-team deal at the deadline – outfielder Miguel Vargas and minor-league infielders Jeral Peraz and Alexander Albertus.
Catcher Kyle Teel, one of Boston’s “Big Four” prospects, was the headliner. Left-handed hitting catchers do not come along often. Teel, 22, routinely draws praise for his makeup and athleticism. Working with new White Sox bench coach Walker McKinven, who developed a reputation as a catching whisperer with the Milwaukee Brewers, should help Teel refine his game-calling and other defensive skills.
Outfielder Braden Montgomery, the 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft, is a high-upside play, a switch-hitter one evaluator described as a physical freak. Another evaluator said Montgomery is so promising, the “Big Four” actually should have been considered a “Big Five.” Both evaluators were granted anonymity for their candor.
Infielder Chase Meidroth, 23, is sort of the opposite of Montgomery, a high-floor player who at 5-foot-10, 170 pounds doesn’t necessarily look the part. One Red Sox official said Meidroth lacks big tools, but is versatile and a coach’s dream. Another said, “keep an eye on him.” A third said he might be in the White Sox infield for the next 10 years.
Right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez, the one pitcher in the deal, led the minors in strikeout rate in 2023 before regressing in ‘24, his age 22 season. If everything clicks, he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. His command issues, however, might ultimately ticket him for late-inning relief.
Explaining the Guardians’ thinking
If the Cleveland Guardians’ only trade Tuesday had been the Andrés Giménez stunner with the Toronto Blue Jays, it would have looked like little more than a salary dump. Even after the Guardians’ second deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the motivation to purge Giménez’s remaining $96.5 million was clear. But once they flipped first baseman Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates for right-hander Luis L. Ortiz and two left-handed pitching prospects, the Guardians’ maneuverings made more sense.
Giménez’s salary this season is $10.6 million, but after it rises to $15.6 million and then $23.6 million in each of the final three years of his deal. His elite defense at second base alone makes him valuable, but his OPS+ has declined from 41 percent above average in his breakout 2022 season to 4 percent below and 18 percent below the past two years.
The Guardians, according to sources briefed on their thinking, feared a third straight subpar offensive season by Giménez would leave them unable to trade him. Facing their usual payroll limitations, they badly wanted to avoid the downside risk.
Club officials are confident Juan Brito, the Guardians’ No. 8 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, can handle second short-term. And the path is now clear for Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, to take over the position, perhaps even later this season.
Horwitz, whom The Athletic’s Keith Law described as “a 27-year-old first baseman with middling power and fringy bat speed” seemed a curious return for Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin, even with the Guardians clearing all of Giménez’s money and also getting minor-league outfielder Nick Mitchell from the Jays.
But for Horwitz, the Guardians acquired Ortiz, a rotation candidate who is under club control for the next five years, as well as minor-league left-handers Michael Kennedy, a fourth-round pick in ‘22, and Josh Hartle, a third rounder in ‘24. Considering the Guardians’ success in developing pitchers, the trade ultimately might prove a steal.
Or not, depending upon whether Giménez rebounds offensively, as the Blue Jays expect he will. The trade reduced the financial pressure on the Guardians, who earlier re-signed free-agent right-hander Shane Bieber to a two-year, $26 million deal. But, according to sources, they will continue to field offers for first baseman Josh Naylor (projected $12 million in arbitration) and outfielder Lane Thomas (projected $8.3 million). Both are eligible for free agency at the end of the season.
It’s not certain the Guardians will trade either veteran, but the potential for continued churn is typical of how they operate. Ideally, they would not be trading players of Giménez’ caliber, even if their contracts are somewhat inflated. But when the Guardians make such moves, they at least need to create a path to improvement. They accomplished that with the Pittsburgh trade.
The Texas Rangers’ free-agent agreements at the meetings – right-hander Nathan Eovaldi for three years, $75 million, reliever Jacob Webb for one year, $1.5 million – clearly demonstrate that owner Ray Davis is encouraged in his quest to create a regional sports network for the club.
The Rangers, the only team without certainty about their local TV rights for next season, also traded three prospects to the Miami Marlins for four years of infielder Jake Burger, and still figure to do more work in their bullpen, according to sources briefed on their plans.
Before agreeing with Eovaldi, the Rangers even made a run at free-agent left-hander Max Fried, offering him a seven-year, $190 million deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The offer was backloaded, easing the Rangers’ short-term financial burden, one source said. But the lack of state income tax in Texas increased the contract’s potential value, forcing the New York Yankees to go eight years, $218 million to land Fried.
The trade for Burger, meanwhile, satisfied the Rangers’ desire to improve an offense that dropped to 18th in runs last season after ranking third in 2023, the year the team won its first World Series. Burger batted .299 with a .645 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs last season. The Rangers’ .233 batting average against four-seamers was the fourth-lowest in the majors. Their .380 slugging percentage was the third lowest.
Burger, 28, came recommended by his former manager in Miami, Skip Schumaker, and bench coach, Luis Urueta. Both joined the Rangers last month, Schumaker as a senior adviser, Urueta as bench coach. Those who know Burger consider him a special person and winning player, and his 63 homers the past two seasons are tied for 15th in the majors.
With Burger gone, outfielder Jesús Sánchez stands as the Marlins’ top returning home-run threat after hitting 18 last season. The only other current Marlin to hit more than 10 was third baseman Jonah Bride, who finished with 11. The only current Marlin earning more than $6 million is right-hander Sandy Alcantara, whose $17.3 million salary makes him a candidate to be traded at the deadline.
The three prospects the Marlins acquired – infielder Echedry Vargas, infielder Max Acosta and left-hander Brayan Mendoza – entered the team’s top 30 prospects at No. 16, 17, and 29, according to MLB Pipeline. Acosta, 22, is the only one to play above Class A, spending all of last season at Double A. Vargas is 19. Mendoza is 20.
And finally . . .
The scouting community is rallying around Jonah Rosenthal, an area scouting supervisor for the Los Angeles Dodgers who suffered a stroke on Dec. 10. Rosenthal (no relation) is 35.
Left-hander Garrett McDaniels, a non-drafted free agent Rosenthal signed out of Coastal Carolina for $20,000 in 2022, was selected by the Los Angeles Angels in Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft.
To support Rosenthal and his family, click here.
(Top photo of Garrett Crochet: David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images)