NBA Odds: How Free Agency Has Impacted Futures Markets

The 2024 NBA Finals ended just two weeks ago, but a growing number of impactful offseason developments have already taken place.

From JJ Redick taking the helm as coach of the Lakers to the 2024 NBA Draft last week to the bombshell moves that the Knicks and 76ers have already made, this NBA offseason has been anything but boring so far.

The Knicks’ big move for former Phoenix Sun and Brooklyn Net Mikal Bridges was the first, biggest trade of the summer, followed by Philly making another signing — a four-year agreement with All-Star Paul George — that further shook up the race for the top seed in the Eastern Conference next year.

But the Knicks and Sixers are not the only teams whose odds are already on the move.

The breakdown below, which we will continue to update as the summer rolls along, covers the highest-impact deals to date.

NBA Deals Resulting in Shorter Futures Odds

Paul George to Philadelphia 76ers: From +1200 to +800 (DraftKings)

Offseason deals don’t get much more significant than this one, as nine-time All-Stars like George, 34, rarely change teams while still in their prime (or at least close to it).

In addition to signing George and locking up young star guard Tyrese Maxey on a long-term deal, the Sixers also renewed veteran Kelly Oubre and landed respected reserve guard Eric Gordon and backup center Andre Drummond. Philly’s season will hinge, as it always does, on the 30-year-old Joel Embiid’s health, but on paper, his supporting cast will be better in ’24-25 than ever before.

Mikal Bridges to New York Knicks: From +1700 to +900 (BetMGM)

As we discussed last week, Bridges’ shooting and defensive prowess — not to mention how well he promises to complement his three former Villanova Wildcats-turned Knicks (Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo) — raise the Knicks’ ceiling significantly, and New York also spent big to keep midseason trade acquisition OG Anunoby in the fold.

Boston will remain a tough team to keep pace with, but the top of the East should still be as compelling as it’s been in a long time thanks to the Celtics, Sixers and Knicks all boasting well-rounded rosters featuring multiple stars.

Dejounte Murray to New Orleans Pelicans: From +6000 to +5000 (DraftKings)

Murray’s move from Atlanta to New Orleans has been an underrated development over the last week. Murray did not mesh with Trae Young and Atlanta the way the Hawks hoped, but he’s still just 27 years old and capable of locking down opposing guards, especially if he’s on a team where he’s not asked to help lead the offense.

Assuming Brandon Ingram remains in New Orleans (that’s no sure thing, but he’s still a Pelican as of July 10), Murray looks like a solid addition as both a complementary scorer alongside Zion Williamson and Ingram and another quality defender in addition to ’23-24 NBA All-Defensive First Team honoree Herb Jones and Trey Murphy. If Murray defends the way he did in San Antonio, New Orleans could boast one of the best defenses in the league.

Oklahoma City Thunder: From +900 to +850 (FanDuel)

With all due respect to Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder haven’t signed any future Hall-of-Famers. But don’t let that fool you: while it hasn’t made the type of high-profile moves that dramatically change NBA outright odds, OKC has quietly had an outstanding start to the summer.

Trading 21-year-old Josh Giddey for veteran Alex Caruso gave the Thunder an upgrade in both perimeter shooting and defense, while subbing out a high-usage young player for a 30-year-old who will improve OKC’s spacing while on much lower usage.

And for who anyone missed the Knicks’ playoff series against Philadelphia and Indiana, Hartenstein is an outstanding rebounder and defender in the paint. He brings a much-needed post presence who should shore up his new team’s rebounding, which was one of the biggest issues for the top-seeded Thunder in their loss to the Mavericks in the second round of this year’s playoffs.

NBA Deals Resulting in Longer Futures Odds

For every team like New York and Philly that has appeared to get much better overnight, another team finds itself facing longer odds after losing a key player.

There’s no better example of this than George’s former team, the LA Clippers. Other teams will likely be

LA Clippers Odds Drop From +3500 to +5000 (DraftKings)

It’s early, but no team has had a worse offseason to date than the Clippers. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard joined their hometown team back in ’19-20, the franchise’s plan was to keep that duo together for a lot longer than five seasons.

But a breakdown in contract negotiations this summer has resulted in George’s exit and the Clippers going from the 4-seed out West a year ago to a playoff hopeful in ’24-25. Odds to make the playoffs are not currently available, but at FanDuel, LA currently are +3000 to win the West next season. Nine teams currently have shorter odds to win the conference: not only contenders Denver, Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Dallas, but also Phoenix, L.A. (Lakers), Golden State, Memphis and New Orleans.

The Clippers have responded to losing George (and likely Russell Westbrook) by signing Derrick Jones Jr. but they’ll need to add more than role players to make up for the loss of George.

Atlanta Hawks Odds Drop From +7500 to +15000 (FanDuel)

At 75-to-1 odds at FanDuel to win the East in ’24-25, the Hawks were not exactly threats before shipping Murray to New Orleans for a package reportedly including Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr. and two first-rounders (in 2025 and 2027).

But the loss of Murray (obviously) doesn’t help, as evidenced by Atlanta’s odds to win the East next year dropping from 75-to-1 to 150-to-1 at FD. Many expect Atlanta to continue to weigh its options this summer, including a possible trade of Trae Young, but for now, the Hawks look well on their way to another play-in appearance, at best.

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