NBA Odds: How NBA Draft Night, Recent Trades Impact Futures Markets

The week of the NBA Draft always offers a few big surprises, and not just on draft night itself.

This year has been no exception, even after the 2024 NBA Draft went largely according to plan. The Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards and Houston Rockets all took the players who were expected to go Nos. 1, 2 and 3 (Zaccharie Risacher, Alexandre Sarr and Reed Sheppard, respectively).

The draft night surprises included:

• Ron Holland to Detroit in the top 5 (the Pistons’ new guard was +5000 at FanDuel to go No. 5)
• Charlotte taking French prospect Tidjane Salaun at No. 6
• Purdue’s Zach Edey going No. 9 to Memphis (at FD, Edey was +470 to go top-10)
• Tennessee star Dalton Knecht falling all the way to No. 17

But the confirmation of those rookies’ destinations did not change their new teams’ big-picture outlook next season. So far this offseason, the only team that has changed how it’s viewed by oddsmakers is the New York Knicks.

Mikal Bridges Trade Changes Knicks’ Outlook

On Tuesday night, the New York Knicks completed a bombshell move for Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges. The Knicks traded away five future first-round picks to acquire a fourth former Villanova Wildcat (they now employ Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo) — and more importantly, a secondary backcourt option to complement Brunson on both ends of the court.

Though Bridges, who is entering his seventh season in the league, is yet to be named to an All-Star team, his shooting and defense make New York a real threat in the East and beyond.

Prior to NY’s deal for Bridges, sportsbooks listed the Knicks’ odds to win the NBA title in 2025 at between 13-to-1 and 17-to-1.

Below are NY’s pre- and post-Bridges trade outrights for ’24-25 at FanDuel, ESPN BET, DraftKings and BetMGM (per X):

The immediate question after the deal for Bridges was, New York can still re-sign OG Anunoby, right? The Knicks answered that emphatically less than 24 hours later, inking the former Raptor to a five-year, $212.5 million deal on Wednesday, hours before the draft got underway.

With Anunoby’s future settled, the Knicks’ title odds have since gotten even shorter. As of Wednesday morning, below are NY’s outrights:

• BetMGM: +725 — second-shortest behind Boston (+300)
• ESPN BET: +800 — tied for second-shortest with Denver, Oklahoma City
• FanDuel: +850 — third-shortest behind Boston, Denver
• DraftKings: +850 — tied for third-shortest with OKC, behind Boston, Denver

Breaking Down Knicks’ Title Odds

With a potential starting five of Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, plus a solid bench featuring DiVincenzo and Hart, it’s perfectly logical that the Knicks are considered the top favorite in the East (after Boston, of course).

What seems a little more far-fetched is the idea that New York is as likely — or more likely — than Denver, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Phoenix and Dallas to win the 2025 Larry O’Brien Trophy.

All those teams will re-tool, if not overhaul, their rosters this offseason. So for now, it’s too soon to say who will belong in the NBA’s top tier next season.

New York certainly could be in that mix, but its current odds are hard to believe, especially at just longer than 7-to-1 at BetMGM. For context, the Celtics entered the ’23-24 season at +450.

Other reasons to doubt — or at least question — New York in the East have to do with the moves the 76ers, Bucks or Pacers could make this summer to keep up with the Celtics and Knicks.

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