NFL Week 5 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Player rankings, best bets and more

NFL Thursday Night blog: Live news and updates from Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Welcome to your NFL Week 5 fantasy and betting cheat sheet. Leading to up to kickoff at 1 p.m. Sunday, we’ll add the latest and choicest fantasy/betting analysis. That means this is a one-stop-shop for The Athletic’s matchup previews, injury and weather updates and other NFL intel. Bookmark this page and refresh over the weekend for continued reference.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: 4 p.m. ET, Oct. 3 | Next update: 11 a.m. ET Oct. 4

Injury news | Weather report
Featured games | Week 5 best bets
Survivor pool strategy | Fantasy football player rankings

Injury news

Updated through Thursday, 1 p.m. ET

Here are some of the most fantasy-relevant injury situations we’re monitoring heading into Week 5’s games. Players assigned to the IR are not included.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

Sunday should be a great day for football, with all but one outdoor contest slated for mild temperatures. (Santa Clara could be toasty for the Cardinals-Niners game at an expected 88 degrees). Precipitation should be minimal, per Rotowire, with only the Colts and Jags more likely than not to see rain. Even the UK game featuring the New York Jets and “host” Minnesota Vikings is forecast for temps in the 60s with less than a 30 percent chance of rain.

Colts at Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Rain possible)

As if Colts QB Anthony Richardson needed any additional challenges connecting with his receivers, there’s a higher chance of rain in the Jacksonville forecast (54 percent) than of Richardson completing a pass (50.6 completion percentage to date in 2024). That figures to present the Colts with a dilemma: With both Richardson (hip) and RB Jonathan Taylor ailing, does Indy want to lean on the ground game given that uncertainty and risk making things worse? Meanwhile, if the Jags stick to the ground game, which RB will they favor, Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby? Bigsby has been outperforming Etienne by some measures while logging just 42 fewer rushing yards on 26 fewer carries.

[Beat writer context if possible]

Wondering what the weather impact is on fantasy production? Jake Ciely has you covered like a poncho in rainy season.

Featured games

Check out our Week 5 previews here. Game-specific previews available on the day of the game.

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Streaming: Prime Video
• TV (local markets only): FOX with streaming on Fubo (try for free)

The Falcons host the Bucs, hoping to grab a share of the NFC South Division lead. From a fantasy perspective, pay close attention to how Tampa utilizes its running backs, as Bucky Irving has been eating into nominal starter Rachaad White’s work and has looked like the better back through the first four weeks. Interestingly in Atlanta, Tyler Allgeier has been doing the same to top-1o fantasy (and real-life) draft pick Bijan Robinson.

Betting-wise, the Buccaneers are 3-1 against the spread this season, while Atlanta is only 1-3 ATS, including an 0-2 mark against the spread as home favorites.

Find our full preview here.

Sunday afternoon

New York Giants (1-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

• Venue: Lumen Field — Seattle
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has looked better (relatively) of late, but he may be without his favorite target. Malik Nabers is recovering from a concussion sustained last Thursday and is TK STATUS. That figures to mean a lot more work for receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, who could be available in your fantasy league (rostered in just 41 percent of leagues) and might be worth a flex flier with the Giants likely playing from behind.

The Seahawks may have lost their first game of the season last week to the Detroit Lions, but they’re still heavily favored at home. You might want to watch if the line moves over Nabers’ availability.

Full preview coming Sunday.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

• Venue: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Dallas running game has been a debacle the first four weeks (just over 75 yards per game in 2024), which could allow T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush to pin back their ears and get after Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Absent WR Brandin Cooks, could CeeDee Lamb be primed for a big day? And can Steelers signal-caller Justin Fields build on his big Week 4 showing and solidify his spot as Pittsburgh’s QB1?

The Steelers could also benefit from a banged-up defense. DeMarcus Lawrence was placed on the IR and Micah Parsons (ankle) is also not expected to be available. The Athletic’s panel of game-pickers is still a slight lean towards the Cowboys, however not everyone is on board. Here’s what our Zac Jackson had to say in his column with Jon Greenberg this week:

“The Steelers coming off a loss should beat up the overrated and banged-up Cowboys. Pittsburgh -2.5 is probably my favorite NFL play of the week, though I fully plan on starting 1-0 Thursday night.”

Full preview coming Sunday.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The fantasy fallout from the Rashee Rice injury will be closely monitored. Will rookie Xavier Worthy snag more of the target share? Will Travis Kelce start resembling the Travis Kelce of old? Will Patrick Mahomes ever play like a top-five fantasy QB this season?

For the Saints, will the real Derek Carr please stand up? The veteran QB was smoking hot to start the season before a dismal Week 3 showing against the Eagles, followed by a touchdown-less Week 4 against Atlanta. The larger sample suggests more performances like the past two weeks, so Week 5 could be the test for which version fantasy managers should expect moving forward.

On the wagering side of things, with the Chiefs’ offense in flux and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill fighting injuries, there’s a solid narrative case for the under. Even though the Saints still own the NFL’s top-scoring offense (31.8 points per game), they’ve averaged under 20 in their last two contests. On the road at Arrowhead, with the Chiefs averaging just 23 ppg, the injuries to both sides could provide the difference. Do you believe others step up to fill the offensive voids or not?

Full preview coming Monday.

Week 5 best bets

Austin Mock scours his weekly projections to spot the top values on the board.

Bet picked Thursday: Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (+120) vs. Baltimore Ravens

I don’t love backing the Bengals defense (it’s very bad) against the freight train that is the Ravens offense right now. The matchup I like, though, is the Bengals offense. The Ravens are 25th in the Dropback Success Rate on defense and that has to be getting Joe Burrow and the Bengals very excited. If this total were to tick down a little more, I’d probably add some over there as well. Either way, I think both offenses have a ton of potential here, but I’ve yet to see why the Ravens deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road in Cincinnati. —Mock

• Worst price to bet: Bengals moneyline (+110)

See all of Mock’s best bets for Week 5.

Survivor pool strategy

A weekly guide to staying alive.

The bad news: Week 5 has a lot of close matchups, an international game and several teams on a bye. In other words, we’re back to chaos and uncertainty that marked the start of the season.

The good news: Our survivor columnists, Renee Miller and Adam Gretz, are back to talk you through NFL survivor strategies, contingencies and picks for Week 5. May you be the sole survivor.

Get this week’s top survivor pool tip.

Jake Ciely’s Week 5 fantasy football player rankings

Your top QB, RB, WR and TE for the week?

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Mason, Nico Collins and Trey McBride.

Get Ciely’s full Week 5 rankings. Plus sleepers and projections

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Luke Hales/Getty Images)