Draws are never equal. Fixtures are never fair. There are winners and losers from each year’s draw and 2025 is no different. Last year Cronulla rode one of the softest draws of the last decade to a top-four berth despite starting the season on the ninth line of betting. Souths, on the other hand, could not overcome their brutal draw.
It is not just strength of schedule that impacts teams either. There are breaks – quick turnarounds and normal/extended rest. There is travel. There are byes and their timing.
There is the timing of a draw – when you get your easy games, when you get your hard games, the ability to start fast and/or finish strong. There are winners and losers during the Origin period. There are draw peculiarities – runs, home games taken on the road, Magic Round and more.
Strength of Schedule
When it comes to strength of schedule there is no doubt the big winner this year is Canberra. They play a combined win total of 270 from last season – 10 fewer than the second best schedule held by the Warriors. They are one of three teams – along with the Warriors and Titans – to have just four games against the Top 4 teams from last year while they have the second fewest games against Top 8 opposition from last year with 10 games against last year’s finalists.
The Warriors have also been gifted a schedule on the soft end. They have four games against Top 4 teams and 11 against Top 8 opposition. They will get the chance to finish like a steam train with no Top 4 opponents from last year after Round 16.
The Dolphins and Panthers are the other two teams who play teams with a combined win tally of 283 or fewer. The Dolphins, who leave Queensland just once before Round 7, play just five Top 4 teams and have just 11 matches against Top 8 opposition. The Panthers have got a very cushy draw. They have a brutal start with seven strong opponents before Round 10 but they play a very easy schedule for the last two-thirds of the season benefitting, of course, by not having to play themselves.
At the other end of the spectrum, the team that has copped the stiffest schedule is South Sydney.
The Rabbitohs play an opponent cumulative win total of 311, which is 10 wins more than the second stiffest schedule. Souths are the only team forced to play all four Top 4 teams from last year twice. In their first nine games, they have eight matches against Top 8 opponents from last year.
The Eels have also been no favours, particularly coming off a second-last finish. They play 13 games against Top 8 opposition – something only the Sharks have been asked to do. Amongst that is six games against Top 4 opponents.
Winners: Canberra, New Zealand, Dolphins, Penrith
Losers: South Sydney, Parramatta
Latrell Mitchell is tackled. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The start
Newcastle and Canterbury are the only two teams to be given opponents with less than 80 combined wins in their first eight games while the Tigers are just a touch over that number.
The Knights play the Tigers twice in the opening six rounds while they have just two Top 8 clashes in the opening 11 rounds. The Bulldogs have just two Top 8 matches in the first 10 rounds. In the first seven rounds, the Tigers have the Knights twice but that is their only Top 8 opponent from last year.
South Sydney and Penrith are both entitled to start slow. South Sydney have an absurdly difficult start to the year with opponents combining for 119 wins last year. Souths have seven Top 8 teams in the first nine weeks. The Panthers are against 113.5 wins from last year in the first eight rounds. They play seven Top 8 teams in the first nine weeks.
Winners: Newcastle, Canterbury, Wests Tigers
Losers: South Sydney, Penrith
The run home
Three teams that are entitled to finish the season well are the Titans, Warriors and Cowboys, who all play against a combined win number of 87 or fewer. Gold Coast get both the Tigers and the Warriors twice each in the last eight rounds. The Warriors don’t play a Top 4 team after Round 16.
The Knights and the Bulldogs have the two toughest runs home after the two easiest starts – if those two teams don’t cook early their seasons are done. The Bulldogs play a combined win tally of 117 wins in the final right rounds while their last four rounds are all against Top 4 teams from last season. The Knights play a combined 115.5 wins.
Winners: Gold Coast, New Zealand, North Queensland
Losers: Newcastle, Canterbury
Kurt Capewell is tackled by Stephen Crichton. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Travel
It is not surprising that the four teams opening the season in Las Vegas are among the five teams that will travel the furthest this season. New Zealand, Canberra, Penrith and Cronulla – along with North Queensland – will be the five most travelled teams in 2025.
It is no great shock for the Wariors, who always clock up plenty of miles, but sees a huge change for Penrith and Cronulla. Canberra are arguably the hardest done by of the teams heading to Vegas as they are one of just three teams travelling over 40,000km in 2025.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Bulldogs are the clear winners with just 8300-odd kilometres of travel. They don’t leave Sydney until Round 8 and they leave Sydney just five times with three of those coming in three weeks (Rounds 9-11). The Roosters have the second fewest KMs travelled with around 10,500, huge advantage for a Top 4 team considering two others are playing in Vegas and the other is Melbourne who rank 12th.
Gold Coast were dealt the best hand of the non-Sydney clubs with 18,500km of travel, just a tick short of the Broncos. The Titans leave Queensland only eight times and just once in the final six rounds.
Winners: Canterbury, Sydney Roosters, Gold Coast
Losers: Canberra, Penrith, Cronulla
Magic Round
Brisbane and the Dolphins once again win in Magic Round by getting an extra home game as the road team at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos have been Magic Round winners since the concept was introduced and the Dolphins are now on that train.
The Cowboys also win by not having to travel to New Zealand to play the Warriors while the Dragons will be far shorter in betting against the Tigers on neutral turf than if the game was at Leichhardt or Campbelltown.
The Roosters and Panthers are playing home games against Brisbane-based teams so have clearly accepted a disadvantage for financial considerations. The Warriors give up a big home edge against the Cowboys while the Tigers have done the same.
Manly have the bye, a crushing blow for Sea Eagles fans who will miss out on Magic Round festivities,
Winners: Brisbane, Dolphins, North Queensland, St George Illawarra
Losers: Roosters, Penrith, New Zealand, Wests Tigers
Byes
There is no real science around byes and when you want them and when you don’t. There are some standouts though. Teams full of Origin players want to have byes on the weekends before Origin. The Broncos, Storm and Panthers – all expected to have at least three players on Origin duty – get two byes on those three weekends. The Roosters are the opposite. They could have between three and five players on Origin duty and will miss them all three times.
Other losers are the Titans, who have been given the dreaded and pointless Round 1 bye, and the Dolphins, who get three byes in an eight-week stretch, the most compressed bye schedule of any team.
Winners: Brisbane, Melbourne, Penrith
Losers: Gold Coast, Dolphins, Roosters
Origin week match-ups
Canterbury have been the clear winners when it comes to the draw in Origin weeks when rep players will be forced to miss – Rounds 12,15 and 18.
The Bulldogs only really have Stephen Crichton and Matt Burton as likely Origin prospects and they get the Dolphins at home without Tabuai-Fidow and potentially a number of forwards, Souths with no Mitchell, Murray (if fit), Arrow and perhaps a few others and the Broncos at home without Walsh, Cobbo, Haas, Carrigan and a few other potentials.
The Knights also win big with Newcastle likely missing Ponga and Best but getting Penrith on the road without their host of Origin stars and then the Roosters at home without their contingent.
The Eels and Tigers both get two byes but Parramatta also host Manly who will likely be missing the Trbojevic brothers and Daly Cherry-Evans while the Tigers get the Roosters without their cadre of stars.
The Roosters have three games in those three rounds and will be severely disadvantaged in each. Manly are the same, putting them in a position of vulnerability without the Trbojevic brothers and Cherry-Evans in three games they would normally be heavily favoured in.
Winners: Canterbury, Newcastle, Parramatta, Tigers
Losers: Roosters, Manly
Angus Crichton won the 2024 Wally Lewis Medal. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Five-day turnarounds
Five-day turnarounds are dreaded in the NRL. They provide little time for recovery and reduce preparation. There may be one training run, pending on the time of year.
Avoiding five-day turnarounds is an advantage and six teams have that in 2025: the Bulldogs, Warriors, Eels, Dragons, Roosters and Tigers.
Three teams have copped three five-day turnarounds with the Broncos, Dolphins and Sharks the losers of the quick backup.
While teams don’t enjoy the quick turnaround, teams on a five-day turnaround are 103-97 the last five seasons.
Winners: Canterbury, New Zealand, Parramatta, St George Illawarra, Roosters, Tigers
Losers: Brisbane, Cronulla, Dolphins
Seven-plus day turnaround
The ideal situation for teams is to have a week or more between games. It gives a normal preparation. Most of the competition gets between 15 and 17 games with a rest of at least seven days including their three games off a bye.
Canberra are the only team to exceed that range with 18 games getting at least a week. Three teams fall short of that: Brisbane, Manly and Canterbury. Both the Broncos and Sea Eagles have 13 seven-day backups while the Bulldogs have 14.
Winners: Canberra
Losers: Brisbane, Manly, Canterbury
Despite Ricky Stuart complaining that the Raiders have received the worst draw in his 22 years in first grade, they have unquestionably been given the softest, helped by getting the best rest of any team. Other teams that should be happy are the Warriors, the Dolphins, the Knights and the Bulldogs.
The NRL has not shown any love to South Sydney or Parramatta while the Roosters and Sharks can feel somewhat aggrieved by their fixture.