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Paul Skenes is having an all-timer. Plus: divining what Arte’s Angels will do at the deadline, revisiting the “franchise-altering” 2019 Orioles draft and sharing the Baseball Card of the Week! I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Phenoms: Paul Skenes making history
He just keeps doing it, doesn’t he?
Paul Skenes went seven no-hit innings yesterday, striking out 11 Brewers before being pulled at 99 pitches. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s the second time the 22-year-old has gone six-plus no-hit innings and struck out 11 or more hitters. (The first time: his second start, against the Cubs on May 17).
Only one other pitcher has had two such outings in one season: Nolan Ryan in 1973. Yeah, the guy with seven career no-hitters had one season (out of 27 in the big leagues) with two such outings. Skenes has now done it after 11 career starts.
Skenes is now 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 89 strikeouts and 13 walks in 66 1/3 innings. He’s already an All-Star and could get the nod to start the game (and, side note, has a mesmerizing warmup routine). But is he going to be the best rookie starting pitcher of all time? I dove in, and here are my other contenders, starting after the dead-ball era (because … let’s be serious).
- Lowest ERA (min. 100 ip): Steve Rogers, 1973 (1.54) — Like Mark Fidrych below, Rogers’ strikeout numbers reflect the *ahem* era, as he had just 64 in 134 innings for the Expos. His win-loss record, for whatever that’s worth, was 10-5. Skenes is at 1.90.
- Best ERA+: Hilton Smith, 1937 (271) — He actually played for multiple teams in the Negro Leagues that year, pitching for the Chicago American Giants and Kansas City Monarchs. Rogers comes in second at 245. Skenes: 215.
- Best winning percentage: (tie) Chet Brewer, 1926/Jim Nash, 1966 (.923) — In a lovely bit of symmetry, each went 12-1 in 18 outings for Kansas City — Brewer for the Monarchs and Nash for the Athletics. Skenes has not lost a game yet.
- Most strikeouts: Dwight Gooden, 1986 (276) — He racked up this rookie record in 218 innings, a rate of 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Skenes currently averages more (12.07 K/9), putting him behind only Kerry Wood (12.6, 1998) and Spencer Strider (13.8, 2022).
- Highest bWAR: Mark Fidrych, 1976 (9.6) — He was worth 9.6 wins above replacement for the Tigers, winning AL Rookie of the Year as he went 19-9 with 24 complete games. It was a different era, of course, which is also reflected in his 97 strikeouts in 250 1/3 innings. Skenes is only at 3.1, but has pitched 184 fewer innings than “the Bird” did.
As for the claim of greatest rookie season ever, that last one is going to be difficult to overcome. Skenes didn’t debut until mid-May, a significant head start to give the other candidates.
But he’s been good enough that I had to look it up. It’s certainly the best we’ve seen in a long time.
Ken’s Notebook: Angels’ fate hangs in the balance
From my most recent notes column:
What does Arte Moreno want? As usual, that’s the only relevant question when it comes to pending roster decisions with the Los Angeles Angels. And as the trade deadline approaches, the whims of the owner will again guide how the team operates.
If Moreno is willing to tolerate another losing season — the Angels are at eight straight and counting — then he will authorize general manager Perry Minasian to make deals that would add to the team’s young core.
But if Moreno is again under the illusion the team might contend in 2025 — a serious longshot unless he is willing to increase payroll — then he will instruct Minasian to keep players under control beyond this season.
Of the Angels’ potential free agents, closer Carlos Estévez (16-for-19 in saves, 2.89 ERA, 28 strikeouts, four walks in 28 innings) almost certainly holds the most value. The other Angels teams want most either are under control through 2025 (lefty Tyler Anderson, righty Griffin Canning, infielder Luis Rengifo) or ‘26 (outfielder Taylor Ward).
If the Angels trade most or all of those players, it will be that much more difficult for them to avoid their first 100-loss season. And without a significant bump in payroll, the chances of a 100-loss season in 2025 would increase.
For now, the Angels are engaging in conversations and open to all possibilities, according to sources briefed on their conversations. Ultimately, Moreno will decide on their direction, if direction is even the right word. Too often since he bought the team in 2003, the Angels’ path has been unclear.
In Hindsight: Revisiting the Orioles’ 2019 draft
One very fast track to madness, if you root for a particular team, is to go back through old drafts and look at who your team passed over while making a particular draft pick. 2019 is a shortcut to apoplexy, if you’re so inclined: The Orioles drafted Gunnar Henderson with the 42nd pick — the first of the second round.
Literally every team passed on him at least one time.
Including the Orioles, technically, though if they were going to take a shortstop with the No. 1 pick in 2019, it would have been Bobby Witt Jr. Instead, they selected catcher Adley Rutschman. Henderson was waiting for them 41 picks later.
Chad Jennings spoke to Orioles GM Mike Elias and others about that 2019 draft, which also featured picks that later helped Baltimore land Corbin Burnes and Cole Irvin — and Kyle Stowers, who has been a nice addition to the big-league bench.
The Orioles had a few years in a row of very high draft picks. That’s something that no team will be able to do in quite the same way again, thanks to the changes in the CBA to help combat tanking (case in point: Cleveland picking first this weekend). But even without the benefit of those other high picks (Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday from 2020-2022, respectively) that 2019 draft was an all-timer.
And the pick that will drive 29 fan bases to groans will always be that 42nd pick. Elias puts it pretty well: “At this time, it looks to me like a franchise-altering draft pick.”
Baseball Card of the Week: 1984 Topps Spike Owen
There are infinite reasons why a child might pick a player to be a favorite. For me — a kid living just south of Cleburne, Texas — the reason for Spike Owen was easy: He was one of us. Spike and his older brother Dave both made their big-league debuts in 1983, but by the time I discovered the sport in 1989, Dave’s time in the big leagues was over.
Spike would play until 1995, playing 1,544 games with the Mariners, Red Sox, Expos, Yankees and Angels. He wasn’t ever a star anywhere else, but every kid in Cleburne knew the name. Until Dillon Gee made his debut with the Mets in 2010, the Owen brothers were the only two kids from Cleburne to ever make it to the big leagues.
Handshakes and High Fives
Buckle up: It’s time for Jayson Stark’s midseason awards (and anti-awards).
Tyler Kepner’s “Sliders” column takes a deep dive into the early-80s White Sox and Jim Leyland, who broke into the big leagues as a third-base coach.
Eno Sarris and Rustin Dodd tell us how Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, who throws eight (or is it 10?) different pitches has gone from a long-shot reliever to one of the game’s best starting pitchers.
What’s going on with the big-market mega-teams? The Dodgers were swept by the Phillies, and the Yankees remain mired in an extended slump.
Jose Altuve won’t play in the All-Star game due to a sore left hand. The Rangers’ Marcus Semien will get the start in his home stadium, and Willi Castro of the Twins will take Altuve’s place on the roster.
No handshakes or high fives for Cody Bellinger for the time being — he has a broken left middle finger. Does this make his already-complicated trade value untenable for buyers?
Don’t look now, but the Mets are — by a percentage point — in a playoff position. Tim Britton examines the three ways they could approach the trade deadline.
Sarris uses some new “expected” statistics to try to find which hitters are having the best “power luck.”
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(Photo: Benny Sieu / USA Today)