Public health bosses in the UK are expecting a rise in deaths due to cold weather, amid severe weather warnings for snow and ice over the next five days.
The UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued an amber alert for social care in England, saying vulnerable people are at risk as the country braces itself for heavy snow and ice going into the weekend.
Five days’ worth of yellow Met Office warnings are in place, beginning with snow and ice warnings stretching from the Shetland Islands to Derby and Nottingham, including north Wales and Northern Ireland.
By Saturday, these are replaced by a blanket warning for heavy snow across England, Wales and southern parts of Scotland, which will remain in place until Monday morning.
About 5cm of snow is expected widely across the Midlands, Wales and northern England, with as much as 20-30cm over high ground in Wales and the Pennines, forecasters said.
A rise in deaths, particularly among those aged 65 and over or with health conditions, is likely, the UKHSA said.
Some people will have challenges keeping indoor temperatures at the recommended 18C, leading to increased risk to vulnerable people.
Charities said that some elderly people who were not given the winter fuel allowance by the government would find it difficult. Age UK’s director, Caroline Abrahams, said the charity had already been contacted by some who were “worrying about what to do when this moment arrived”.
She said: “We urge older people to do everything they can to stay warm, even if that means risking spending more on their heating than they feel they can afford.”
The Met Office has also warned there is a small chance of power cuts, stranded vehicles, cancelled train and air travel, and some rural communities being cut off due to treacherous roads.
The icy forecast comes amid flooding that led to homes being damaged and cars trapped in fast-rising water.
A major incident was declared in Greater Manchester on New Year’s Day, as hundreds of people were evacuated, including from a hotel housing asylum seekers and a Stockport block of flats, where residents had become trapped. Major train lines were also flooded and the banks of a canal in Cheshire collapsed due to a rise in flood water.
A total of 12 flood warnings, where flooding is expected, remained in place in England on Thursday morning, particularly in West and North Yorkshire. A further 53 flood alerts, where flooding is possible, stretched from the Tyne and Wear coast to Seaford, on the East Sussex coast, and from Shropshire in the west to the Suffolk coast.
A flood warning in Ness-side near Inverness, Scotland, also remained in place after a few days of heavy rain and wind that led to the cancellation of Hogmanay events across the UK, including the Edinburgh street party.
For those who intend to travel despite the wintry weather, the Met Office and National Rail issued reminders to plan ahead. Difficult driving conditions should be expected, particularly in areas under a yellow weather warning. Allowing extra time is advised, with delays, diversions or hampered conditions likely for road users.
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Passengers on public transport are advised to check any timetables and services before setting out in case of delays or cancellations.
National Rail said the poor weather would have an impact on trains running across Great Britain, with Northern, TransPennine Express, Transport for Wales and ScotRail services all affected.
Two new flood alerts were issued just before 6am on Thursday, with water levels peaking for the Lower River Wharfe system in Yorkshire and the Lower River Ure waterway in North Yorkshire. Both river systems and surrounding tributaries were at risk of flooding.
Areas most at risk within the Lower River Ure system include low-lying land such as agricultural land and roads in the areas around Masham, Boroughbridge, Aldborough and Bishop Monkton. For Lower River Wharfe, areas at risk of flooding span from Otley to upstream of Ulleskelf, including Tadcaster.
No further significant rainfall is expected in the area on Thursday and water levels are expected to begin falling in the coming hours. People are advised to avoid using low-lying footpaths or any bridges near watercourses, and not to attempt to walk, drive or cycle through flood waters.
Greater Manchester police said the major incident had been declared as mountain rescue teams were deployed to help the Greater Manchester fire and rescue service deal with damaged properties and stranded vehicles. The force said the affected areas still under monitoring were Didsbury, Stockport, Trafford and Wigan.
In Bristol, the severe weather emergency protocol has been activated by the city council and the homelessness charity St Mungo’s, which will run until 8 January. There will be increased outreach shifts and more accommodation made available, with the aim of ensuring nobody has to sleep on the streets during such extreme weather conditions.
Marco Petagna, a senior Met Office meteorologist, said: “Most roads will be treated, there’s a chance on untreated roads that ice will still be an issue. On Friday I think we will see further snow and ice warnings issued.”