How’s your run defense holding up? Oh, I see. Saquon Barkley just came to town and posted the ninth-highest single game rushing total in NFL history. Well, uhh, how’s the offense looking? Oh … I … see. It just lost 30-7 with an almost literal meme at quarterback while Saquon Barkley just reached a new season high in rushing in 11 games after you let him depart in free agency.
The tail of Barkley’s historic Week 12 will be long. The narratives — running backs should still win MVP! — will be tedious. The recriminations — John Mara should be forced to sell the Giants — will be hilarious. The reality? Barkley is indeed a “generational”-type running back, but those don’t amount to much if Joe Judge is the coach or Daniel Jones is the quarterback.
That still doesn’t mean we have been properly valuing runners. Yes, they are replaceable — to a point. As the Eagles, 49ers and Ravens have all vividly reminded in the past 2-3 years, just because any running back can have “success” in your offense doesn’t mean just any old running back can elevate your offense.
After years of adequate but unsatisfying backfield committees, the Eagles clearly sensed this in free agency. Why do we keep building the world’s most complicated contraptions — D’Andre Swift between the 20s, Kenneth Gainwell in the two-minute drill, Boston Scott at the goal line — when we could simply pay one really good running back?
Where is the line between replaceable and All-Pro? It’s admittedly difficult to nail down. That’s how you overpay Chase Edmonds. That doesn’t mean we should stop attempting to find it. You can gain an edge at any position. There is nothing special about running back. There is risk. There is reward. And brother, there is Saquon Barkley.
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Five Week 12 Storylines
Will Levis has his best start of the year against the Texans. Will Levis is playing better. Will Levis can’t stop getting sacked. It’s the ultimate Will Levis fact that his aforementioned best start came in a game where he went down eight times. Tom Brady or Peyton Manning never once took eight sacks in 598 combined career starts. Hall-of-Famers, yes, but the point? It’s vanishingly rare for a good quarterback to ever take eight sacks, let alone twice in two months. Then again, most QBs don’t average 10.4 yards per attempt across tough matchups with the Vikings and Texans. Levis is a man of paradoxes. They will get broken into a million little pieces if he can’t start protecting himself better. In the interim, he’s made himself streamer relevant for matchups like his Weeks 14-15 dates with the Jaguars and Bengals.
Kyler Murray keeps opting for Trey McBride checkdowns over Marvin Harrison Jr. deep connections. If Levis was the feel-good quarterback story of Week 12, Murray was the feel bad. Consistent with his inconsistency, Murray had been playing steadier ball heading into the Cardinals’ Week 11 bye. So naturally he came out of it with his least inspiring start of the season. Two rushes for nine yards. Nothing for MHJ down the field. A, yes, Levis-esque pick-six. The time for Murray to stop having these kinds of starts was three years ago. The time for him to have one again will probably be Week 13 against the Vikings’ tough defense. If you stare too hard at Murray’s game logs, you begin to see a deluxe Daniel Jones. A sub-4.0 touchdown percentage. Not enough spiked weeks with his legs. I can’t say that’s what I want to be relying on during the fantasy playoffs, but with matchups like the Patriots and Panthers, it will probably be a necessary evil.
Anthony Richardson’s bad news returns. Kyler wasn’t the only dual-threat having a bad day. We knew the Lions were going to be a severe test following Richardson’s encouraging Week 11. He did not pass. Literally or figuratively. Facing a defense whose only real vulnerability is the secondary, Richardson completed 11 throws. He was held without a touchdown and made the entire offense too predictable. Jonathan Taylor has had no rushing room since Richardson’s return. For now, we can call this one step forward against the Jets, one step back against the Lions. The pattern could repeat with the Patriots on tap for Week 13 and the Broncos awaiting Richardson after Indy’s Week 14 bye. With Denver and Tennessee up the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, this is probably Richardson’s final week of 2024 relevance.
David Montgomery, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. all get injured in Indy. D-Mont was the only one not to return to action, but he was spotted on the sideline in his helmet. WIth the score 21-6 at the time, it seems the Lions were simply playing it safe ahead of their short-week showdown with the Bears. We expect D-Mont to be out there as a lower-end RB2 on Thanksgiving Day. It’s more complicated for Downs, who actually returned but is now considered a Week 13 long-shot. MPJ is the most straightforward. He briefly checked out, returned, and finished two-plus quarters without incident. Downs’ absence would thrust Pittman back into the top 36 for Indy’s plus Patriots matchup.
Commanders backfield rocked by injury vs. Cowboys. Brian Robinson injured his ankle on the first offensive snap. He “returned” … just not for the second half. That allowed Austin Ekeler to lead the backfield until suffering a sickening concussion in the game’s dying moments. Ekeler is out for Week 13. At the very least, Robinson is swollen. Considering his already lingering injury issues and lack of effectiveness since tweaking his knee and hamstring, Robinson will also probably end up missing Sunday’s game against the Titans. That leaves also-rans Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez to suit up vs. a strong defense. McNichols has been the season-long No. 3, but “C-Rod” profiles as more of a pure between-the-tackles replacement for Robinson.
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Five More Week 12 Storylines
49ers’ offense further breaks in Brock Purdy’s absence. You’re not supposed to win with your backup quarterback. But isn’t this the ultimate “scheme” offense? One where the players merely do Kyle Shanahan’s bidding? Sunday belied just how faulty that notion can become. This is the best system in the NFL. But not even the best system matters if it’s Brandon Allen pushing the buttons. So why wasn’t dual-threat Josh Dobbs given a chance to spark something in Green Bay? We already know the answer there: He wouldn’t execute the system well enough. Well if you don’t trust the players and this is what the system gets you without Brock Purdy — who continues to do more and more freelancing when healthy — the Niners’ season really is over unless Purdy can get back for Week 13. Even with Purdy, Deebo Samuel has been looking like a role player with Christian McCaffrey operating as a volume merchant. Fantasy championships aren’t being won here. Hopefully they aren’t being lost.
Bucky Irving makes another move on Rachaad White. Irving entered the Bucs’ Week 11 bye tying a season high with 16 touches. Sunday, he bested it by two even though the game was 23-0 at halftime and 30-0 with 18 minutes to go. Far more efficient than Rachaad White and gaining on him through the air, Irving’s molasses-slow takeover of the Bucs’ backfield might finally be achieving escape velocity. It has him pushing for weekly RB2 value, especially for dates like this week’s showdown with the Panthers. Next are the Raiders, while the Cowboys await for Week 16. “Bucky Irving, league winner” might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.
Tommy DeVito upsets delicate balance in Giants offensive ecosystem. Well “upsets” isn’t really accurate. “Destroys” is more like it. No compiling, at least in the first half. No rushing, at least after Tyrone Tracy’s third quarter fumble. No scoring before the game was 30-0. No hope of any kind, something articulated by Malik Nabers’ broken-and-desperate post-game ranting. I guess the thesis of the Tommy Cutlets play is to “tank.” The problem is, the players literally have to play. Highly-paid NFL professionals aren’t really into risking their health and careers for six games your franchise has announced are meaningless. The DeVito situation needs to be re-thought, and fast. Coach Brian Daboll seems to get the picture, saying DeVito will start Thanksgiving against the Cowboys “if healthy.” DeVito departed for one play Sunday after having the wind knocked out of him. The G-Men need to decide if it’s worth risking having the wind knocked out of Nabers and company’s career momentum.
Nothing goes quite according to plan in Panthers skill corps. Jalen Coker didn’t play. Ja’Tavion Sanders (concussion) didn’t finish the game. Neither a returning Adam Thielen nor Xavier Legette led the team in receiving. That would be journeyman David Moore. And yet, for the third week running, it was the best start of Bryce Young’s perhaps-not-over career. He still couldn’t manage more than one score, but he continued to limit the sacks and turnovers that plagued his early days. That means even when he wasn’t keeping the chains moving, he wasn’t setting them back, either. Playing faster with greater pocket awareness and a sense of anticipation to his throws, Young had the looks of a player who at least finally belonged on an NFL football field. For better or worse, Young could be playing his way into a third season as Panthers starter.
Gardner Minshew’s injury leaves Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers twisting in the wind. It’s a broken collarbone for Minshew. That means it’s a broken everything for Vegas. No more easy mode Bowers or Meyers completions. No more real hope of any down-field Tre Tucker production. No more “Sincere McCormick” emerging for 5-6 decent carries. Desmond Ridder is just that bad. There is one sliver of hope: If Aidan O’Connell (thumb) — who is also bad but nowhere near as bad as Ridder — is ready to return for Friday’s game against the Chiefs. AOC is eligible to run the Raiders’ offense, and beat reporter Vic Tafur thinks he will be cleared. O’Connell’s odds of converting Bowers and Meyers check downs would be far better than Ridder’s.
Questions
1. Are the Rams ever not in frantic comeback mode?
2. Remember when Justin Jefferson scored fantasy points?
3. Is there some reason teams keep playing injured kickers?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Russell Wilson (@CIN), Jameis Winston (@DEN), Derek Carr (vs. LAR), Drake Maye (vs. IND), Will Levis (@WAS)
RB: Jeremy McNichols, Ameer Abdullah, Tank Bigsby, Sincere McCormick (lol), Chris Rodriguez, Roschon Johnson, Justice Hill, Ray Davis, Jaylen Wright
WR: Keon Coleman, Rashod Bateman, Devaugh Vele, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Wan’Dale Robinson, DeMario Douglas, Adam Thielen, Noah Brown
TE: Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Cole Kmet, Noah Gray, Luke Schoonmaker, Theo Johnson
DEF: Cowboys (vs. NYG), Seahawks (@NYJ), Colts (@NE), Giants (@DAL), Patriots (vs. IND)
Stats of the Week
I was doing some Kyler Murray research when I stumbled upon this Daniel Jones slander: Jones has made 69 career starts. Amongst the 67 QBs to make at least that many starts this century, Jones’ 3.1 touchdown percentage is 65th, ahead of only Joey Harrington and David Carr.
C.J. Stroud has more interceptions than touchdowns over the past three weeks, which is particularly disappointing since it coincides with Nico Collins’ return two games ago. OC Bobby Slowik, who has been on fake sharp alert for a long time, desperately needs to find a way to make things easier for this offense.
The Cowboys are 1-0 in games where Cooper Rush, Linval Joseph, and Princeton Fant serve as team captains.
Awards Section
Week 12 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Jordan Addison, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Trey McBride
Week 12 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Kyler Murray, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Marvin Harrison, TE David Njoku
Tweet of the Week, from Andy Molitor: “Imagine being the salesman making calls to renew Giants season tickets the week after Saquon wins Super Bowl MVP.”