The future of the Giants and Farhan Zaidi, where the Warriors go from here: Kawakami Mailbag, Part 1

Back when the Warriors still played at Oracle Arena, there was one man who always sat on press row, always dressed better than anybody else, always smiled more than anybody else and always seemed to personify everything that was strong and decent about a team that wasn’t always strong or decent in most other areas.

How could the Warriors be all bad — even in the blighted Chris Cohan era — if Alvin Attles showed up every night and grabbed your hand to shake it like he was pulling you to safety from a sinking ship? Al was the one-man lifeboat when the Warriors were terrible and terribly run. If all else failed (and it often did), you knew Al was there. Always there. And in the last decade or so, after Cohan sold to Joe Lacob and the Warriors leaped to a whole new level, Al was the franchise’s benevolent father figure.

Attles never ran this franchise, but I don’t know how this franchise would’ve run without him all these years; he was literally affiliated with this team as a player, championship-winning coach, executive and more, for longer than anybody has ever been associated with any NBA team — every day of more than 60 years.

By the time the Warriors moved to Chase Center, Al’s health didn’t allow him to attend as many games. But when he was there, he was treasured, as was right and natural. He still had that wry smile, rumbling voice and steel-trap grip. He was the Warriors’ ambassador, fully part of the NBA’s nobility and the most gracious figure you could ever know — the only person who bridged the eras from being Wilt Chamberlain’s valued teammate to Rick Barry’s coach to Chris Mullin’s friend to Stephen Curry’s guidepost for everlasting credibility.

And now Al is gone, after passing away at 87 on Wednesday. But actually, Al’s affiliation with the Warriors has not ended. It can’t be ended. Attles’ soul is in this franchise, and it can’t ever be separated.

I walked over to Al in his seat at Oracle before just about every game to shake his hand and feel some of that karma. As a player and coach, he was the guy everybody knew could win every fight if you got him mad, but also the guy who rarely got mad at anybody. He would boom a hello, pull me closer and tell me — as I’m sure he told dozens of people every day — that I was doing good and he wanted me to continue to do good. What can you say to that? Other than: Yes, thank you. And now I will try to keep doing good by Al.

Now to the mailbag. This is Part 1, which includes questions and answers about the Giants, A’s, Warriors and Valkyries. Part 2 will post later this week and it’s all 49ers. As always, I tried to pick questions that were focused on frequently raised topics. Also, questions have been edited for length and clarity.

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What do you think will happen if the Giants miss the postseason? I know much of the fan base blames Farhan Zaidi, but I can’t imagine that there is any better alternative to him and I fear getting rid of Zaidi would mean that a top manager like Bob Melvin would leave, too. — John M.

This is not a shocking prediction, but I think the Giants are going to miss the postseason. After Wednesday’s loss to the awful White Sox, the Giants’ playoff odds on Fangraphs dropped to 6.7 percent, which seems quite accurate, especially given their very tough schedule to close this season.

The Giants have 21 straight games vs. Arizona (two series), San Diego (two series), Milwaukee, Baltimore and Kansas City from Sept. 3 to Sept. 25. Given that they only went 5-3 in eight recent games against the White Sox, A’s and Tigers, I don’t foresee a 15-6 run or anything close coming in those September games. It feels like 85 wins might be the Giants’ max ceiling right now and the way the wild-card race is shaping up, it looks like 85 probably isn’t going to do it. So let’s just say that the Giants won’t make the playoffs for a third straight season.

Given that …

I definitely think Greg Johnson and the rest of the Giants ownership group need to see some signs of life and possibility in the last weeks of this teeter-totter season. Not necessarily a playoff berth, but maybe getting to 84 wins. Maybe a few more than that. Score some more runs. See Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald solidifying themselves as good major-league players. Playing meaningful games into late September.

But I don’t think the Giants’ owners want to move on from Zaidi. I don’t think they should want to move on from Zaidi. I think all of the last year or so — hiring Bob Melvin, adding Jung Hoo Lee, Robbie Ray, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and others — was designed to make sure they didn’t have to move on from Zaidi’s system and core philosophies. Because if you’re looking for sure-fire candidates to replace Zaidi, I don’t think there are a lot of obvious alternatives.

The hard truth is that any great future general manager would probably want to strip this down to the nubs and do a full-scale restart. But that’s just not what the Giants’ owners ever want to do because they need Oracle Park filled up to pay the bills. Which is why Zaidi’s analytical approach was so attractive six years ago. He could do a running rebuild — remain competitive while putting the farm system back together. The problem is that the Giants haven’t really succeeded at either thing.

Would a bold new GM/president need three years to build this up again? Could Giants ownership take that hit in the box office and TV ratings? I don’t think that would be very appealing. The owners want to believe they can compete now and always. So the next principal decision-maker would probably have to do something similar to what Zaidi has tried. And if that’s what you want, Zaidi probably is still the best guy to keep trying, at least for one more season.

You said on Elon’s site that dwindling Giants attendance could be a blaring sign for ownership. Is there even a realistic solution for that by next season? Having grown up in the championship era, seeing Oracle Park so empty on TV bums me out. — Ishaan P.

As you note, I’ve said before that the most important analytics involving the Giants’ future might be the current attendance figures at Oracle. For the recent series against the horrendous White Sox (admittedly one of the worst road draws of all time), the Giants averaged just under 29,000 per game. My general rule is that anything below 33,000 sends out a buzzing warning signal to the owners and anything below 30,000 is screeching alarm bells.

Here are the remaining opponents at Oracle: Miami (whew, this series could be gruesome), Arizona, Milwaukee, San Diego and St. Louis to close out the season. It’s bizarre that the Giants are ending the season against a non-divisional opponent, but that’s Rob Manfred’s deal, not mine.

The Giants’ owners take the crowd count extremely, extremely seriously. It’s not only an indication of fan support, it’s literally how they pay for the operation. If the Giants don’t regularly ring up crowds at least in the low 30,000s in these remaining Oracle games … watch out. If the numbers start to dip into the mid-20s … really watch out.

How would you rate the development side of the equation — are the Giants on track, has the front office demonstrated a reasonable amount of improvement with the flow of young talent from the farm? — Michael M.

I think it’s a big positive that the Giants have ushered in so many young players over the last few years. But it’s probably not the biggest validation for the front office that many of the best ones seem to be almost by accident. I mean, Ramos has bounced around for a lot of years. Fitzgerald’s big splash this season came out of absolutely nowhere.

Otherwise, it’s largely been problematic. Other than Patrick Bailey (and have you seen his hitting stats in July and August?), Marco Luciano was their best shot at producing a true star, and … everybody’s still waiting on that one. Bryce Eldridge looks promising, but he’s still only 19. No, it hasn’t been great.

What are the chances that we keep Chapman and Snell after this year? They seem to excel under Bob Melvin and to like playing for him. — William S.

I think the Giants have a much better chance to bring Chapman back than Snell because the Giants will be much more willing to pay medium-level money to a position player than huge long-term money to a starting pitcher (and I kind of agree with that).

Juan Soto. How much will it take and will the Giants offer it? — Tung-On K.

He’s a Scott Boras client, so if you offer Soto the most money, you’ve got a good chance to land him. I just don’t think the Giants will be able to load up more cash than the New York Yankees or Mets can toss onto the table for a player who has proven himself in the big city.

And I think most hitters don’t love the idea of ending up in Oracle Park if they can help it. Finally, even if the money is equal, the Giants’ roster right now probably isn’t too appealing for a superstar who presumably wants to win as much and as quickly as possible.

Given the significant investments in high-profile free agents such as Chapman, Snell and Ray, what factors do you believe are contributing to the team’s struggle to compete with the top contenders this season? — Russell M.

They need high-impact hitters. They don’t have any. Haven’t had any ever since Buster Posey retired and Brandon Crawford’s career hit the wall. So if there’s one practical thing that could come out of this season, it could be clearing out some of the recent over-optimism about their lineup. It can’t be more of the same in 2025.

Wilmer Flores was good a few years back, but he can’t be on the Giants’ roster next season. I’d say that Thairo Estrada and Michael Conforto (pending free agent) are highly questionable for 2025. I’m putting a big circle around LaMonte Wade Jr.’s long fade this season. I’ve gotten Bailey fans really mad at me by saying on X that his .165 OPS in August has made him virtually unplayable recently (before his trip to the IL) and that the Giants have to figure out how to avoid these late-season collapses by such a valuable defensive player.

Now that the Warriors lost out on Paul George and Lauri Markkanen and are going into the season with the team we have, any prediction on what players could be our target at midseason? — Allen T.

That’s a tough one because you just don’t know which players might become a lot more available in January or February than they were in June. I could light-heartedly suggest LeBron James or Anthony Davis, because we know the Warriors called the Lakers about LeBron at the last trade deadline, but the Warriors don’t have Klay Thompson or Chris Paul’s contract to trade this time, so they likely can’t even make that kind of flier attempt.

And we know Markkanen might get traded in the future, even after signing his new long-term deal, but by rule, it can’t be until next July.

So who might the Warriors target in February? Maybe Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen, who signed his new deal in time to be eligible to be traded at the deadline. Or Michael Porter Jr. if things get dicey in Denver. And the Warriors are always paying attention to the goings-on in Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I doubt that turns into a real thing so quickly.

My practical answer is that the Warriors might have to wait on a big move until next July, when a new set of players might become available, including possibly Markkanen again.

Will (Steve) Kerr’s experience coaching the Olympic team give the Warriors a better chance to acquire any of those players? Maybe Anthony Edwards? Probably not Jayson Tatum! — Joaquin J.

If there’s one player who seemed to bond with Kerr and vice-versa, it was Devin Booker. Who looked darn good playing alongside Curry in the Olympics. Of course, Booker is signed for four more years, and it’s very unlikely that the Suns would consider trading him. But of all the players on that team who seemed to grow into the Kerr system, Booker was the most notable. In fact, Kerr noted it loudly himself.

What are likely Warriors rotations? How likely is it that Kerr will start Draymond Green at the five to unlock the Andrew Wiggins-Jonathan Kuminga combo? — Paul B.

I think there will be games when Kerr starts Draymond at center, same as last season. But I don’t think Kerr is going to force that lineup just to get Kuminga and Wiggins on the floor together. It has to work naturally. If Kuminga is playing well enough that he has to get 30 or so minutes a game, then I could see Kerr moving in this direction.

Why can’t or won’t the Warriors be a 4-6 seed? With Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II as your 11 and 12th man, is this not the deepest Warrior team you have ever seen? Do you not believe in the fourth-year leap for Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody? Why oh why am I the only one believing in this team? — David V.

Very dramatically stated, David. But I believe fourth, fifth or sixth seed in the West is exactly what I’ve projected for the Warriors if most things go right this season. Could be worse if there are some injuries and other difficulties. Might be closer to 50 wins and a No. 3 seed if things go exceptionally well.

Does this Warriors front office secretly expect the roster as currently constructed to outperform expectations or are they just hoping to tread water until the deadline? — Bradley J.

I’m not sure how secret it is since Lacob spelled this out on my podcast recently: They won 46 games last season with Draymond getting suspended twice, with some issues figuring out what to do with Klay Thompson and some issues with Klay being very unhappy about the uncertainty.

They believe for good reason that Curry remains one of the best five players in the game and think they should be a little better this season with more options on the wings (D’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield) and some growth from Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski in particular. If you’re a little better than 46-36 … you might be 48-34. That’s pretty simple. It’s not a guarantee of anything, but it’s also not a secret.

My question about (the) Warriors isn’t who starts, but who is in (the) finishing lineup of close game(s) at the end. — Warren B.

I’m not sure that Kerr knows the answer yet (he’s been busy this summer!) and obviously it could change several times in the middle of the season even after he decides it for Game 1. You’ve got to guess that the closing five will include Curry, Draymond and Wiggins. Which leaves two spots open among the group of Podziemski, Kuminga, Melton, Anderson, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Moody and Hield.

With that kind of variety, Kerr could easily lean toward matchups — TJD against bigger teams, Podziemski when the Warriors want playmaking help for Curry, Melton for tougher wing play, Kuminga for some mid-range scoring … and so on.

We talked a lot about how deep the Warriors were last season, which was true in sheer playable numbers. But CP3 and Klay had pretty specific uses and weren’t exactly switchable on defense. And Dario Šarić and even Looney were unplayable at times.

If things work the way the Warriors are planning, they’ll have many more versatile options for the second unit and to close against specific opponents this season.

What are the odds Steph retires a Warrior? Will they swing for the fences to get him some much-needed help? — Bang Bang.

They’ve been swinging for the fences — guys, they called the Lakers about LeBron last February — but just haven’t been able to cash in. Doesn’t mean the Warriors will stop trying. Yes, they likely didn’t put everything they could into a trade offer for Markkanen earlier this month, but I understand that maybe he’s not quite the level of player worth risking every bit of the future for.

Do I think Curry will retire as a Warrior? Yes, I think it’s likely. It’s not guaranteed. I don’t think Curry wants the Warriors to think it’s guaranteed. He doesn’t want to be on bad teams. He had enough of that early in his Warriors career. But I don’t believe that Curry is looking to leave. He knows the power of playing out an all-time career with a single franchise. The Warriors can make sure of that by making enough smart moves to stay competitive for this season and many more.

Does anyone care that performances like Steph’s “Night, Night” routine are demeaning and insulting to the other athletes and the concept of sport? — No N.

The way LeBron and the other Olympic teammates reacted when Curry did it in the gold-medal game … I think it might be pretty much just you, No N.

Has there been even the slightest rumbling about a local group coming in at the last minute and buying the A’s? It seems like the Las Vegas move is DOA and it also seems unlikely Sacramento can put together a $1.5 billion baseball stadium project given the lack of big money there. — Erik S.

No, I haven’t heard anything about a last-ditch purchase of the A’s to keep them in Oakland. Mostly because I’m sure there isn’t any chance of it. For somebody to buy the A’s and keep them in Oakland, John Fisher would have to put them up for sale. And he has always said he’s not selling.

Also, the Las Vegas project is absolutely not dead, and in fact, last week it passed through a few governmental hurdles. I’m not sure about those celebrations in Nevada over this — a construction deal in Vegas is far from the finish line — but it’s still very possible that the A’s will get something done in Vegas.

Prediction for where the A’s are playing in four years? — Ryan F.

That’s up to Fisher. Everything is there to get it done in Las Vegas if he commits the financing and has the gumption to just finish off the deal. But I also always bet against Fisher getting anything major done. So I’ll guess that in four years they’ll still be playing in Sacramento due to delays in Las Vegas, and I’ll add that by 2028 there will be discussions to stay in Sacramento permanently, possibly with Vivek Ranadivé in talks to buy the A’s.

Re: Valkyries: How does getting players for an expansion team work in the WNBA? Gabby Williams signed with the Storm only for the remainder of the season. Can the Valkyries talk to her now about signing for next season? — Maria O.

Quick answer: The league hasn’t set the rules for how the Valkyries can assemble their roster next offseason, so that’s all TBD. Also: The WNBA players’ union has the right to opt out of the labor deal this November, which could scramble and possibly delay a lot of things heading into the Valkyries’ debut in 2025.

To your second question, no, the Valkyries can’t currently talk to Williams or any other player who is signed to another team until the player-movement period in the offseason. And the Valkyries couldn’t have signed Williams while she was a free agent (before she returned to the Storm) because, well, the Valkyries can’t put together a roster until the league gives them the rules. And also, again, that could be all frozen if the union opts out of the labor deal.

Do you have Valkyries fever yet? — Anonymous U.

No, but I am sure it’ll be fun to watch Lacob, Jess Smith and Ohemaa Nyanin search for loopholes in the WNBA salary-cap rules.

(Top photo of Farhan Zaidi: Andy Kuno / San Francisco Giants / Getty Images)