SAN DIEGO — The San Diego Padres, as always, are keeping things interesting. Five of their players were selected for Tuesday’s All-Star Game. Two were not in the organization when pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Back then, another had yet to play a game in the majors or at his current position. Yet another is shelved with a significant injury — one of multiple significant injuries the Padres have absorbed on their way to a decent 50-49 record.
Of course, a team with five All-Stars and as many nine-figure contracts must continue striving for more. Here are three takeaways from San Diego’s eventful first half.
A resilient offense has kept the Padres relevant
Feeble in clutch situations a year ago, Padres hitters have reversed that trend. In 2023, they finished 26th in batting average with runners in scoring position. They were 29th in weighted runs created-plus (wRC+) in high-leverage situations, according to FanGraphs. Now they are fourth and first in those categories, respectively. San Diego’s markedly improved resilience has shown up in repeated big innings and comeback wins.
This offense looks like it might be the best of general manager A.J. Preller’s decade-long tenure. Employing a more line-drive-centric mindset, the Padres have maintained a functional attack amid the absences of Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. and an underwhelming, post-surgery first half for Manny Machado. Jurickson Profar, the surprise of the season, has virtually matched the departed Juan Soto in wRC+. Already an All-Star, 21-year-old rookie Jackson Merrill has changed the complexion of the lineup.
The motivation derived from last season’s failure might be the biggest factor in a collective turnaround, but Padres manager Mike Shildt deserves credit for getting his hitters to buy into a more team-oriented approach. The recent return of Bogaerts and the eventual return of Tatis should be boosts.
Welcome back, Bogey 👋 pic.twitter.com/4kVyf6flWv
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 14, 2024
“The offensive approach has been the strongest identity, I feel like, of our club,” Shildt said. “The credit goes to the players. These guys have really stepped up, taken great at-bats — very selfless baseball. … It’s a good way of playing baseball where you’re not giving up anything available and aware of all the opportunities that come your way and have the right intent to execute.”
Still, the Padres remain susceptible to lulls. They lost six of their last seven games while scoring three or fewer runs five times.
“We just played bad,” Profar said. “We faced some good pitching, but that’s not an excuse for a team that wants to go to the playoffs and win it all. In the playoffs, you’re gonna face good pitching, so we need to find a way to be better.”
Pitching is a potentially fatal problem
Yu Darvish is on the restricted list attending to a personal family matter, and the Padres are hopeful if a bit uncertain that he will return in the second half. Joe Musgrove, another veteran who hasn’t pitched since late May, is hoping to return in August. Dylan Cease hasn’t missed a start in years, but after an impressive introduction, the team’s No. 1 starter has pitched more like a No. 4 since mid-May. Though fellow newcomer Michael King and rookie Matt Waldron have buoyed the rotation, prospect Adam Mazur struggled mightily in his first seven big-league outings.
And those are just the glaring issues with the starting pitching. Over the past several weeks, the Padres’ bullpen has been among the worst in the majors. Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon form a potent late-game trio, but a painful lack of reliable middle relief has made too many games an adventure. For more than a month, San Diego’s most pressing trade deadline need has appeared to be another reliever or two.
It all might become moot without rotation reinforcements, though. The Padres cannot bank on Darvish or Musgrove coming back, and even if the veterans do, their health will be in question. In his first full season as a major-league starter, King will at some point approach an innings limit. With Mazur less than ready, San Diego could soon turn to Jhony Brito as its No. 5 starter. Like Randy Vásquez, Brito is far from proven as a major leaguer. If the Padres want to avoid a 2021-esque collapse, they probably need to add at least a couple of arms before the July 30 trade deadline.
Preller remains as aggressive as ever
Last offseason, after the death of owner Peter Seidler, Preller was essentially forced to trade Soto and enact the largest payroll reduction in the league. That did not stop the famously opportunistic executive from trading for Cease in March and landing two-time batting champion Luis Arraez (without adding payroll) in early May. Under the circumstances, this might be Preller’s most impressive work yet as it relates to roster construction.
Still, the Padres continue to reside on the periphery of the postseason picture. They have negated much of their positive results with four separate losing streaks of five games, the kind of inconsistency that has marred Preller’s tenure. Each of the nine-figure contracts Preller and Seidler handed out has been followed by significant injury and/or underperformance. Partly because of Preller’s wheeling and dealing, organizational depth remains an issue. With Seidler no longer around, the GM might need a playoff appearance to keep his position.
His job security, or lack thereof, might explain why Preller was pushing hard in pursuit of Chicago White Sox standout Garrett Crochet as early as late May. Still, Preller’s default setting always has been aggressiveness. To reinforce and upgrade his roster, he’ll need to continue being creative; the Padres are roughly $12 million below a luxury tax threshold ownership does not intend on crossing. Meanwhile, teenage catcher Ethan Salas appears as close to untouchable as any prospect Preller has had. Teenage shortstop Leodalis De Vries might be only slightly more attainable.
Whatever resources and latitude Preller has left, the upcoming trade deadline could go a long way toward determining his future with the organization.
(Photo of Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado celebrating a homer on Saturday: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)