New vehicle sales in Australia will dip by about five per cent year-on-year in 2025, leading to increased competition between brands, shorter wait times and the return of more discounting, according to Toyota Australia’s top salesperson Sean Hanley.
However, the company’s sales, marketing and franchise operations vice-president also believes Toyota can extend its reign as the country’s most popular auto brand despite unprecedented challenges including an influx of new Chinese carmakers.
At a press conference in Sydney this morning to announce Toyota’s 28th year atop the new vehicle sales charts, Mr Hanley told reporters demand would cool in 2025.
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After another record year in 2024, when new vehicle sales totalled 1,237,287 in Australia, Toyota expects 2025 sales to sit between 1.17 and 1.18 million vehicles.
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“The Australian new car market has always been one of the most competitive in the world, and 2025 will be no different,” said Mr Hanley.
“We expect to see more new brands and models, more choice and stronger competition – which, in the end, is great for the consumer.
“Right now, we think the market will ease marginally from the records set in 2024, mainly because of a better balance between supply and demand. We then foresee a return to a more normal market environment.”
This year marks a host of new challenges for both established and incoming auto brands in Australia, where about 60 carmakers are already competing and a further six or so are expected to arrive in 2025.
Chief among those headwinds is the Australian government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), increasing cost of living pressures and a federal election in coming months.
Mr Hanley believes those pressures will increase competition between brands, which will inevitably lead to price reductions.
“For sure, each brand will determine their own situation,” he said. “With all of these new entries coming in and this need to sell BEVs [electric vehicles] in numbers, there’s going to be some interesting dynamics in the market.
“Having said that, Toyota will continue to focus on quality sales and providing customers with the best experience.”
Remarkably, Toyota’s 2024 result of 241,296 vehicles marked the 22nd consecutive year that the Japanese marque has topped Australia’s new vehicle market, with a 19.5 per cent market share. The result broke Toyota’s previous record of 238,983, set in 2008.
Despite rampant competition, Mr Hanley is adamant there is scope for further sales growth at Toyota.
“We’re expecting another strong year of sales above 220,000 vehicles,” he said.
“I can assure you our order bank remains strong, so we are optimistic for the future.
“I’d love to get Toyota to 20 per cent market share. We fell a little short in 2024, but we’re heading in the right direction. It’s going to be challenging – it might not be possible in the next 12 months but in the next five years, Toyota will be in a strong position to do so.”
Asked how other brands could find success in the Australian market, Mr Hanley pointed to strong products, dealer networks and customer service.
“In the end, you’ve got to be able to provide a service. You’ve got to be able to provide confidence,” he said.
“Toyota has over 260 dealers nationally that are well capable, invested, that can service and supply parts. If someone does get into difficulty – our cars aren’t perfect, it can happen – there’s a Toyota dealer right beside them.
“The only question consumers have got to ask themselves with all these new brands in the future is ‘who’s there for them if they get into trouble?’.”