Tropical Storm Sara, previously forecast to intensify into a hurricane and impact Florida’s west coast, has taken an unexpected turn, alleviating concerns for residents.
As reported by Newsweek earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and meteorologists warned Tropical Storm Sara had the potential to strike Florida.
In a social media post on Wednesday, Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK News southwest Florida, said the early projection models for Sara had a “less than ideal” outlook for Florida. A spaghetti model shared by Devitt showed the various paths the storm could take, all forecasting that the storm might move into the Gulf and head toward Florida.
However, the latest update from the NHC posted at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday shows the storm’s path shifting, placing Florida out of immediate danger from Sara making impact with hurricane-force winds and severe flooding.
A meteorologist has noted the change from previous weather models that showed Florida to be in Tropical Storm Sara’s projected path. Florida is still set to receive rainfall from Sara next week but no storm.
“The multi-model consensus no longer has Sara affecting Florida as a tropical cyclone—a remarkable change from just 2 days ago when models consistently showed a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,” said meteorologist Tomer Burg on X, formerly Twitter.
“Remnant moisture from Sarah should produce rain in parts of Florida next week.”
The multi-model consensus no longer has Sara affecting Florida as a tropical cyclone – a remarkable change from just 2 days ago when models consistently showed a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Remnant moisture from Sarah should produce rain in parts of Florida next week. pic.twitter.com/3DHxi3K2Zo
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) November 14, 2024
Newsweek contacted the NHC via email on Friday for comment.
AccuWeather said some of Sara’s tropical moisture will be lifted northeastward over the Gulf.
“That extra moisture can be enough to lead to flooding downpours and perhaps severe thunderstorms in Florida toward the middle of next week,” said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.
“The exact track when over the Gulf will depend on Sara’s organization and ability to regain strength at midweek. A weaker storm is more likely to be pulled into the front and to the north—perhaps over the central Gulf coast.
A more organized tropical depression or storm is more likely to track more to the east and into the Florida Peninsula.”
For now, the storm’s trajectory is posing a lesser risk to the Sunshine State and sparing Florida from a direct hurricane threat.
Still, Floridians and those in Sara’s projected path should stay alert and continue to follow storm updates as tropical systems can be unpredictable.
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to have life-threatening impacts on Central America as it continues along its path. Wind speeds are projected to reach 60 mph by the time the storm hits land.
According to an NHC advisory posted at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras through early next week.
DAMIAN SCALFARO / AFP/Getty Images
Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, the NHC said.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds, stated the advisory.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, would yield 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.
“Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these ranges,” the forecast said.
In August, the NOAA updated its forecast to 17 to 24 named storms this season. Sara is the 18th named storm of the season.