Good morning! Just eight days until the election, and here’s some fresh data from the American Psychological Association:
Over 7 in 10 adults report the nation’s future (77%) as a major stress source, with the economy (73%) and the 2024 U.S. presidential election (69%) not far behind, per the latest Stress in America™ survey from the APA.
So, did this weekend ease anyone’s mind? Probably not. On Friday, Jeff Bezos refused to let his The Washington Post endorse Kamala Harris, cowardly bracing for a potential Trump presidency. Then, Trump himself went on a sprawling three-hour podcast with Joe Rogan, which has already racked up 30 million listens. And yesterday? Trump hosted a hateful, divisive, ugly, and racially charged rally at Madison Square Garden, giving a clear glimpse into the toxic rhetoric and authoritarian actions that could define his administration.
But let’s look on the bright side: Bezos — and also Los Angeles Times owner Patrick Soon-Shiong — faced massive backlash for kowtowing, proving that while billionaires may yield to Trump, not everyone will. Sure, billionaires control too much legacy media and wield far too much influence, but legacy media is dying and independent voices are poised to grow louder. Even the New York Times (not owned by a billionaire) endorsed Harris and has been calling out Trump’s authoritarian leanings in its editorials over the last few days (and surprisingly, did not sanewash the rally yesterday).
As for those 30 million views on Trump’s podcast: OK, but how many could actually stick through that meandering three-hour mess? Three hours! I don’t want to listen to my family for three hours. Even Rogan struggled to keep Trump on track as he veered into topics like life on Mars, failed to offer any concrete proof of election fraud despite Rogan’s repeated nudges, and rambled about abolishing the income tax. It was pure Grampa Simpson energy. It won’t turn away the MAGA faithful, but I can’t imagine anyone on the fence will hear it and think, “Oh, that’s the guy I want to vote for.”
Meanwhile, the Madison Square Garden rally might’ve hurt Trump more than it helped. Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and cracked a joke about carving watermelons with a Black audience member. Speakers went on to call Kamala Harris “the Antichrist” and a prostitute, label Jews as cheapskates, and stereotype Palestinians as rock-throwers. Rudy Giuliani even labeled Palestinians as “terrorists” taught to kill Americans from birth two days after a Muslim mayor in Michigan endorsed Trump (and that’s a story unto itself).
You’ve probably seen clips already. I’m not going to show them again. The rally was a call to arms against Hispanics, Jews, Black people, and Kamala Harris (and also, apparently, college-educated people). Yet it also sparked a strong backlash: Bad Bunny, Ricky Martin, and Jennifer Lopez all condemned the Puerto Rico comments and endorsed Kamala Harris, which may very well move the needle with Pennsylvania’s significant Puerto Rican population (3.8%).
And finally, in a surge of positive momentum, Beyoncé fired up a Harris rally in Houston, while Michelle Obama gave an incredible speech in Michigan, perhaps the best of the campaign.
If social media is any reflection, MAGA — as they were in 2020 and 2022 — is overconfident and Harris voters — especially women — are mad as hell right now. If it really is 50/50 and it really does come down to turn out and enthusiasm, I would not bet against the Democrats. And for those worried that the betting markets know more than the rest of us: The day before the 2016 election, they gave Donald Trump an 11 percent chance of winning. Those same prediction markets predicted a red wave in 2022. The betting markets don’t know sh*t. No one does.
Finally, because I cannot resist it: The polls say 50/50. For those looking for reasons to believe they might be wrong in favor of Harris: The Democratic Senate candidate is ahead in Arizona by 7, Nevada by 8, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 3, and Michigan by 4. In an America as divisive as it is right now, how many people actually expect that many split tickets voters, especially knowing that in the last two Presidential election years, there has been only one split-ticket winner, Susan Collins in Maine (a notoriously independent state)?