Somewhere around this time last year I wrote an article titled Wild speculation, genuine disappointment, or just wishful thinking? Not a single NRL coach will be sacked during the 2024 season.
It was a nice little read which concluded, based on flawless logical argument, that 2024 would be one of those rare seasons in which not a single coach would get the punt.
In the article, I hilariously opined that Kevin Walters was “as safe as houses”, as he’d finally got the Broncos firing and that they could look forward to even better times ahead.
I then managed to put my other foot in my mouth by suggesting that Parramatta’s Brad Arthur would be retained regardless of how poorly the Eels went, as some clubs just seemed to be happy with mediocrity, and then dug the large hole even deeper by suggesting that Jason Demetriou would also be safe, as Souths’ former coach Wayne Bennett was a notoriously hard act to follow, and that the Rabbitohs looked to be strong contenders for the finals in 2024. Thank God I’m not a betting man.
Well, how wrong can you be, with each of the above clipboard warriors being unceremoniously punted before the season was over. It just goes to underline the unpredictability of the game for all but the consistently top echelon clubs like Penrith and Melbourne, as It doesn’t take much for a club board to become nervous if things aren’t going to plan, and in the interest of self-preservation, then rush to make the coach the scapegoat for failure, even though it’s more often the players and/or the Board themselves who should be shouldering the bulk of the blame.
NRL club board members are notoriously loath to accept any responsibility for the team’s failure but are bound to claim credit if their club meets with some success. After all, resigning from a board after the long years of clawing and back-stabbing to get there in the first place would mean they’d have to hand in their directors’ jackets, vacate the hospitality box, and spend hours looking for a parking space like every other mug.
Well, what about the players then, you know, the guys paid obscene amounts of money to win games? History shows that very few highly paid players are ever punted, regardless of either how poorly the team performs, or what the players might do in their spare time to bring both the club and the game itself into disrepute.
To punt them means that they must be replaced with someone probably even more expensive and less reliable. Better to hang on to the devil you know and hope that the next starry-eyed coach setting himself up for failure can get them to earn their salaries.
No, we know it’s the coaches who pay the penalty, and let’s be honest footy fans, who doesn’t enjoy the annual ritual public humiliation and tar and feathering of an unsuccessful coach and watching them being unceremoniously marched out the door mid-way through the season only to replace him with some poor unfortunate interim coach, or Trent Barrett, whose previously demonstrable level of competence was to remember to bring the drink bottles and kicking tees on game day.
What a spectacle, such entertainment, and we’re very fortunate to have witnessed an absolute smorgasbord of sackings in recent years, and the more the merrier I say. Who can forget the dizzy heights of 2020 when Stephen Kearney, Dean Pay, Paul Green, Paul McGregor and Anthony Seibold all got the axe, or 2022, when Trent Barrett, Nathan Brown and Michael Maguire were shown the door.
Of course, there have been a couple of disappointingly lean years in recent times, when only John Morris and Anthony Griffin were cashiered in 2021 and 2023 respectively, but with three coaches moved on last season things are once again looking up.
So at the risk of getting it badly wrong again, let’s have a quick look at the current crop of coaches to see who looks to be a safe bet to see out the 2025 season, and those on shakier ground who should enjoy the stress, the wrath of the fans, and the inane post-game media interviews while they can.
Let’s start with the coaches who are rock solid and who won’t be going anywhere anytime soon unless they decide to do so voluntarily, and here we’re talking about Penrith’s mentor Ivan Cleary, who has just delivered his club their fourth title on the trot, and Melbourne’s favourite son Craig Bellamy, who enters his 23rd season at the helm in 2025. This pair will hold their jobs for as long as they want.
That brings us to the coaches who are “safe for now”, and heading that list are Roosters mentor Trent Robinson and Cronulla’s Craig Fitzgibbon, who have both had a solid run of finals appearances in recent times, as well as both Cameron Ciraldo (Bulldogs) and Shane Flanagan (Dragons) who’ve managed to bring some long-overdue respectability to their teams.
Then there’s the new appointments for 2025 in Kristian Woolf (Dolphins), Jason Ryles (Eels), Michael Maguire (Broncos) and Wayne Bennett (Souths), who you’d all expect will to be there come this time next year regardless of how their teams perform.
Those ten coaches are safe and won’t be going anywhere in 2025, but what about the other seven?
Benji Marshall (Tigers) – Marshall accepted a poisoned chalice when he took over the reins at the Tigers in 2024 and promptly presided over their third straight wooden spoon. This came as a surprise to no one, given the background in-fighting and instability and poor recruitment at the club in recent years, players just going through the motions, and Marshall’s total lack of experience as a coach.
Thankfully, 2025 is shaping up as a far better year for the Tigers, as Marshall is off his coaching L plates, they’ve recruited well, the club’s back office now appears to be functioning, and the addition of the experienced “winner” in Jarome Luai rounds out a very impressive spine. Prediction: Optimism is justifiably building at the Tigers, but not even a favourite son like Benji could survive another wooden spoon. If Wests don’t quickly begin climbing off the bottom of the ladder this season, Benji will be packing his bags.
Andrew Webster (Warriors) – Rookie coach Andrew Webster and his Warriors were everybody’s darlings in 2023 when they surprised by finishing in the top 4 alongside Melbourne, and he deservedly won Dally M Coach of the Year. However, the Warriors fell off a cliff this year to finish 13th, and unless Kiwi and Penrith legend James Fisher-Harris can help Webster instil some pride in the jersey in 2025, a top 8 finish looks unlikely.
Webster was extended to the end of 2028 on the back of his rookie year indicating that the club are confident he can deliver in the long-term, and I can’t see them changing horses at this stage. Prediction: Webster will survive in 25.
Ricky Stuart (Raiders) – The last time the Raiders won a premiership Paul Keating was still Prime Minister, and under Stuart’s 12 year reign of mediocrity the green machine has been to the grand final just once, losing to the Roosters in 2019. The Raiders have lost a lot of experience in 2025, and their recruitment looks to be limited to a bunch of unknowns, so it’s hard to see them threatening for a top eight place anytime soon. Incredibly, Stuart has now been signed until the end of 2028, by which time he’ll have been in the coach’s chair for 16 years.
That sort of tenure is fine if you’re Craig Bellamy but is a ridiculous investment in failure in the case of Stuart. Prediction: Contract or not, time is running out for Ricky, and if his no-frills team doesn’t produce the goods early in the season, he won’t be there for the club’s 2025 presentation night.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Des Hasler (Titans) – The Titans are another team that perennially disappoints, finishing 14th, 14th and 13th over the last three years. Des Hasler looked to be gaining some traction early in the second half of the season, winning 5 from 6 games, but then the Titans finished the season poorly, losing their last 5 games and conceding 178 points in the process.
Although their 2025 recruitment to date has been underwhelming, they have a big pack of forwards and some very exciting backs who know how to score tries, and I suspect that Hasler’s second year will see them finish closer to the top 8 than to the bottom of the ladder. Prediction: Des Hasler won’t be going anywhere in 2025.
Anthony Seibold (Sea Eagles) – Manly look to be a team on the rise under Anthony Seibold and 2024 saw them return to the top 8 for the first time since 2021, and there’s no reason to think that they won’t be in the finals again this year and possibly be a real premiership contender.
Seibold is currently contracted until the end of the 2025 season and the strong rumour is that he’s just about to be offered a two year extension. Prediction: Seibold will be extended rather than punted in 2025.
Adam O’Brien (Knights) – O’Brien has looked to have his cards marked more than once during his five years at Newcastle, but he somehow manages to hang on, and for what it’s worth, he’s currently signed until the end of 2027.
Although the Knights have made the finals every year but one under his leadership you get the sense that they might really struggle this year unless marquee player in Kalyn Ponga can spend a lot more time on the paddock than he did in 2024. If the Knights falter, the anti-O’Brien faction on the Board will be swift to act. Prediction: 2025 will be Adam O’Brien’s last season in charge at Newcastle.
Todd Payten (Cowboys) – Payten is very much a “fly under the radar” style of coach not known for big announcements – he just works away and gets things done, and this seems to work in FNQ. Now approaching his fifth season at the helm of the Cowboys he’s had hot and cold results over the last four years, finishing 15th, 3rd, 11th and 5th since 2021.
The board will be looking for more consistency in 2025 with back to back finals appearances, and they certainly have the squad to do it. Prediction: Payten will be safe in 2025.
So, there you have it – Benji Marshall, Ricky Stuart and Adam O’Brien look to be the coaches on the shakiest ground in 2025. Will they all go, can they all survive, or is there yet another dead man walking?