The expectations for Griffin Canning were immediately set quite high in 2024. In the first week of spring training, the Los Angeles Angels right-hander instantly made an impression on his new manager.
“He stands out in everything he does,” Ron Washington said in February, shortly after the start of camp. “I said, ‘You’re the leader, and I want you to lead.’ There might be older guys on the pitching staff, but let me tell you something. They don’t handle their business the way you handle yours.’”
At the time, it was a surprising comment. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, two other starting pitchers, were higher in the up-and-coming pecking order. Tyler Anderson was an All-Star veteran.
Washington’s statement suggested the possibility that Canning was finally ready to take the next step that had long been viewed as possible.
Fast forward to the present. Canning allowed seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on Saturday. With that, his ERA ballooned to 5.41, the highest among qualified American League pitchers.
The 2023 season was big for Canning. It was his first after 18 months away from the big leagues because of a back injury. But in 2024, his strikeout rate has plummeted from 9.9 per nine innings to 6.5. His walks are up. He’s allowed an AL-worst 80 earned runs.
Griffin Canning was expected to have a breakout year. Instead, he ranks as the worst qualified pitcher in the American League. (Stephen Brashear / USA Today)
After losing 11-3 to the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, nearly six months after his initial assessment, Washington was asked to evaluate Canning’s season.
“He’s taken the ball. In this game, sometimes things just don’t go your way,” the manager said. “But he hasn’t stopped fighting. Every time it’s time for him to take the ball, he’s taken it. … It’s a learning period for him. He’s just got to keep grinding and hope that he learns a heck of a lot out of this season.”
The plan was, however, that this would be more than a learning season. Canning is 28 years old and was first called up five years ago. He was strong last year, posting a 4.32 ERA. That was supposed to be his learning season when he was finally healthy. That was supposed to set up a career season. Instead, he’s experienced a regression.
It begs the question of what’s next for Canning and the Angels. There’s a lot of potential in his arsenal. In 2019, the former second-round pick was the Angels’ top pitching prospect. The team still believes he can tap into that.
But his 2024 has been a source of frustration. And the front office will have to decide if they’ll tender him a contract for next year before he becomes a free agent after 2025.
“It’s been really tough,” Canning said of his season. “It’s not fun to go out there and be putting the team down. … But I’m trying to stay optimistic and keep working.”
Canning’s seen a dip in his fastball velocity. The issue was more pronounced earlier in the season. But for the year, it’s down 1.3 mph on average, which has, in some ways, defined his season.
There’s not enough of a difference between his fastball and off-speed pitches for the heater to be effective, particularly when his curveball isn’t landing as effectively.
The right-hander is generating whiffs on just 14.6 percent of his fastballs, a massive drop from 26.7 percent last year.
The sweeper that he’s worked on in bullpen sessions hasn’t been as sharp in game action and is registering as a slider. There’s also some concern he’s showing his grips, potentially tipping pitches. His fastball-changeup usage against lefties has also been viewed as a bit predictable, resulting in an .865 OPS for lefties against him.
The strangest oddity, however, has been his struggles in the first inning. He’s got a 9.36 ERA, allowing 26 earned runs in those 25 first frames.
“I don’t know what the first inning thing has been this year,” Canning said, noting he feels good when he starts games.
Canning has started every game he was supposed to start, as Washington noted. There is always something to be said for that.
And when he takes the ball, he’ll almost always go deep enough to save the bullpen. Canning’s 5 1/3 innings on average is actually a tick above MLB average.
He’s also put together several good starts this year. He threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Kansas City Royals in May and he pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Oakland Athletics in June. He struck out a season-high eight batters over five innings against the New York Mets earlier this month and allowed just one earned run.
The potential is in there. The Angels know that. Canning knows that.
But they’ve arrived at an inflection point. The results have not been consistent enough. Things haven’t worked out for the team’s young core of starting pitchers. Detmers is in Triple A. Sandoval was ineffective before his Tommy John surgery. Chase Silseth also was sent to Triple A and also had surgery.
Canning has a minor-league option remaining. But because of how thin the rotation has been, the team can’t afford to lose his innings. Not only that but he’s had to carry the mantle of that young starting core. His struggles have been on full display.
And if they continue over the next six weeks, he’ll leave the Angels in a difficult spot. Either they bet on a pitcher they’ve long believed in for next year, or they trust the results from 2024 and move on.
“It’s just a tough game,” Canning said. “If anything, I can take the positives that I’m not beating myself. And that’s something I can live with.”
(Top photo: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)